Last week was not a good one for my stock market portfolio. Greggs (GRG) issued a trading update on the Thursday and it read positively to me – total sales for the year up 11.3% to a record level and Q4 sales up 7.7%. More shops opened and new national distribution centre well advanced. But the shares promptly fell over 10%!
The full year outcome for Greggs should be as anticipated but there were a few negative comments about consumer confidence, street footfall and higher taxes. If that was a profit warning, it was a very mild one. Paul Scott pointed out in his blog that other retail focussed companies have been reporting negative figures so maybe it’s simply contagion. I shall study Greggs in more detail to see if this is a buying opportunity.
The Fundsmith Equity Fund issued its Annual Report last week. It’s always worth reading what Terry Smith has to say. The fund achieved a Total Return of 8.9% last year which is below their equities benchmark of 20.8% (the MSCI World Index). But Terry points out that he has still beaten that index in the longer term. You can read his letter to investors here: https://www.fundsmith.co.uk/media/pirmvyly/fundsmith-annual-letter-to-shareholders-2024.pdf
The 8.9% return is comparable to the FTSE All-Share and my own overall portfolio performance so I see no reason to change my holding. Fundsmith has again been affected by being underweight in the large US tech stocks which is no bad thing as far as I am concerned. Us equities are being driven by momentum effects which may not last.
And now for something completely different. Here’s a review of a recently published book I read over Christmas. It’s a biography of Alexander Hamilton by Ron Chernow who wrote a very good biography of John D. Rockefeller entitled “Titan” which I can recommend. It explains how to become the richest person in the world by monopolistic practices – rather like Microsoft, Apple, Amazon and Alphabet in the modern era.
Alexander Hamilton was one of the leaders of the American independence revolution. He was a close aide to George Washington in the revolutionary wars and had a big hand in creating the US constitution. From a poor background he achieved a great deal.
He died in a duel with Aaron Burr which he could easily have avoided. Burr was a crack shot and the events surrounding the duel are covered in some detail in this book. The book will interest anyone who wishes to learn more about US history and how their constitution evolved.
But the book is way too long at 1450 pages. It could best have been edited down to a third of that length. This seems to be a modern failing of authors and publishers. For example the book Titan is only 770 pages. Increased length does not improve the quality.
Roger Lawson (Twitter: https://x.com/RogerWLawson )
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