Net Zero and Rishi Sunak

In Rishi Sunak’s speech yesterday he is clearly still committed to “net zero” by 2050 to tackle climate change, even though the UK cutting carbon emissions is unlikely to have any significant impact on the worldwide figures. It’s a pointless gesture which will mean we incur enormous costs which the public has not been informed about and to which they have certainly not consented.

But reality has been creeping in after people have discovered that their gas boiler plus their radiators will need replacing by inefficient electric heat pumps. Likewise new sales of oil/petrol powered vehicles were to be banned from 2030, ahead of most other countries, when electric vehicles are still more expensive, don’t hold their resale values and are inflexible in use.

Rishi’s speech is seen as a vote winner but it’s in essence a more pragmatic approach to reducing carbon emissions and relieving the burden on certain households.

It’s certainly worth reading his speech in full (link below) which was only reported in simplistic sound bites in the national media. He concludes by saying: “We are going to change the way our politics works. We are going to make different decisions. We won’t take the easy way out. There will be resistance, and we will meet it”. That surely means he is going to face down the idealists who don’t live in the real world.

But will Rishi manage to take the Conservative Party and Civil Service with him? That is the key question the answer to which we will see in due course. That’s assuming the Labour Party don’t win the next election and reverse the direction of travel.

My view is that this speech is well argued and veers well from extremes. But he will have difficulty convincing the environmental fanatics who have not been listening to reason for some time.

Rishi Sunak speech in full: https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/pm-speech-on-net-zero-20-september-2023

Roger Lawson (Twitter https://twitter.com/RogerWLawson  )

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A Political Manifesto

A few years ago I penned some policy suggestions for a new political party. I just had a clear out of some of my old files and thought it was worth publishing as it’s still very topical.

Reference Policy Suggestions My suggestions for policies in those areas and others are below:

Finance

1.       The personal taxation system is way too complicated and needs drastically simplifying. At the lower end the tax credit system is wide open to fraud while those on low incomes are taxed when they should not be. The personal tax allowance, both the basic rates, and higher rates, need to be raised to take more people out of tax altogether.

2.       The taxation of capital gains is also now too complicated, while tax is paid on capital gains that simply arise from inflation, which are not real gains at all. They should revert to being indexed as they were some years ago. For almost anyone, calculating your own tax that is payable is now way too difficult and hence requiring the paid services of accountants using specialist software.

3.       Inheritance tax is another over-complex system that wealthy people avoid by taking expert advice while the middle class end up paying it. It certainly needs grossly simplifying, or scrapping altogether as a relatively small amount of tax is actually collected from it.

4.       The taxation of businesses is inequitable with the growth of the internet. Small businesses, particularly retailers, pay a disproportionate level of tax in business rates while their internet competitors often avoid VAT via imports. VAT is now wide open to fraud and other types of abuse such as under-declarations, partly because of the EU VAT arrangements. VAT is in principle a simple tax and the alternative of a sales tax would create anomalies but VAT does need to be reformed and simplified.

5.       All the above tax simplifications would enable HMRC to be reduced in size and wasted time in form filling by individuals and businesses reduced. Everyone would be a winner, and wasted resources and expenditure reduced.  

6.       The taxation of company dividends on shares is now an example of the same profits being taxed twice – once in Corporation Tax on the company, and then again when those profits are distributed to shareholders. This has been enormously damaging to those who receive dividends and the lack of tax credits has also undermined defined benefit pension funds. The taxation of dividends should revert to how it once was.

7.       The regulation of companies and financial institutions needs very substantial reform with much tougher laws against fraud on investors. Not only are the current laws weak but the enforcement of them by the FCA/FRC is too slow and ineffective. Although some reforms have recently been proposed, they do not go far enough. Individual directors and senior managers in companies are not held to account for gross errors or downright fraud, or when they are, they get off too lightly. We need a much more effective system like they have in the USA, and better laws.

8.       Shareholder rights as regards voting and the receipt of information have been undermined by the use of nominee accounts. This has made it difficult for individual shareholders to vote and that is one reason why investors have not been able to control the excesses in director pay recently. The system of shareholding and voting needs reform, with changes to the Companies Act to bring it into the modern electronic world.

9.       The pay of directors and senior managers in companies and other organisations has got wildly out of hand in recent years, thus generating a lot of criticism by the lower paid. This has created social divisions and led partly to the rise of extreme left socialist tendencies. This problem needs tackling.

10.     Governance of companies needs to be reformed to ensure that directors do not set their own pay, as happens at present, but that shareholders and other stakeholders do so. Likewise shareholders and other stakeholders should appoint the directors.

11.     Insolvency law needs reform to outlaw “pre-pack” administrations which have been very damaging to many small businesses. They are an abuse of insolvency law.

Transport

1.       Way too much money is spent on rail transport and trams which cannot be justified on any cost/benefit analysis. HS2 is just one extreme example of this. Meanwhile the road system does not receive enough investment – this has resulted in traffic congestion, wasted time which is damaging to the economy and lots of poorly maintained roads (e.g. potholes). Only 25% of direct tax on vehicles is spent on the roads.

2.       Public transport should generally pay for itself. In London alone there is a subsidy of £1 billion per year on buses which is totally unjustified. Many of these subsidies are given to people who could afford to pay for their travel, even when they are receiving social security benefits.

3.       Road safety has flat-lined due to an excessive focus on speed reduction and the perversion of the law by the use of police waivers to force people to take useless “education” courses. Policies have been distorted to enable the police to make money from drivers, while improving the roads, better education and other policies to reduce road casualties have been ignored.

4.       Charging of drivers via road pricing to reduce congestion should be opposed (as it does not work and is just a money-making taxation scheme). Likewise Clean Air Zones where drivers are taxed for driving some vehicles, all of which were legal when purchased, should be stopped and the whole focus of environmental legislation should be reviewed. EU regulations in this area have made illegal air pollution levels when there is no real evidence of danger from them. ULEZ and CAZ schemes are just a way to raise taxes with little real benefit on health grounds and no cost/benefit justification.

5.       Likewise the EU has mandated speed limiters (ISA – Intelligent Speed Adaptation) for all vehicles in future which will delay vehicles and not contribute to road safety, while generating millions of speeding fines on innocent drivers. There should be a commitment not to follow the EUs lead on such legislation.

Education

1.       Education should be free for all those who can justify they will benefit from it. At present too many people go to university who will be unlikely to benefit from it and they should be redirected to lower cost vocational courses.

2.       Loans to support students taking courses should be interest free.

3.       There needs to be a much stronger focus on technology education in the UK as only people with such education will contribute positively to the economy.

4.       There needs to be more emphasis on the use of technology in teaching to improve the productivity of that profession which has basically not changed in hundreds of years. The use of on-line resources can assist and would enable teachers to be more productive and hence be paid more.

Environmental, Climate Change, Population and Housing

1.       There should be more attention paid to the real science of environmental impact rather than the hysteria of left-wing campaign groups.

2.       Mrs May’s commitment to a zero-carbon economy, which is financially unaffordable, should be scrapped because there is no practical way to achieve it and it is based on very dubious scientific analyses.

3.       The population of the UK needs to be controlled, if not reduced, to improve living conditions and ensure a healthy economy. This can be achieved by tougher limits on immigration (along with better enforcement of existing rules), and encouraging the population to procreate less.

4.       Housing costs, and the inability to find suitable accommodation, are major problems for the young. Controlling/reducing population would help but other measures need also be considered including the financing of more social/rented housing.

Local Councils and London

1.       The funding of local authorities, and some of their important functions such as providing social care, needs to be reformed. At present they are too dependent on central Government funding which means obligations are often put on them without the funds to cover the cost.

2.       There are wide variations between the efficiencies of different local councils with many being wasteful. They should have guidelines and limits on how they spend their money, laid down by central Government, to avoid waste.

3.       London is a particular problem where it has become dominated by populist Mayors (both Labour and Conservative) and where elections are driven by national politics rather than local issues. The most recent Mayor, Sadiq Khan, has been pursuing a “gerrymandering” policy of increasing immigration to gain more people that are likely to vote for him, thus making London even less acceptable as a place to live than it has been for years. Crime, transport and housing are all in a major crisis. I suggest the position of the Mayor, and the Greater London Authority be scrapped as Mrs Thatcher did with the GLC when Ken Livingstone became so damaging. In other words it should revert to central Government control, with the local boroughs having more control over their own affairs. That would no doubt be popular with London borough councillors.

4.       Transport for London should be taken out of the control of the Mayor be made an independent body with an objective of making it a profit centre rather than a consumer of enormous subsidies. They should also lose control of the road network (the TLRN) where they currently have a perverse incentive to make the road network unfit for purpose so that more people use public transport from which they gain income.

I hope you find the above useful.

Yours Roger W. Lawson, M.B.A., M.B.C.S. ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Roger Lawson (Twitter: https://twitter.com/RogerWLawson  )

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Cutting Oil and Gas Production Could be Dangerous

The CEO of Shell has told the BBC that cutting oil and gas production would be “dangerous and irresponsible” because the switch to renewable energy is not happening fast enough. It would result in energy bills rocketing higher again.

The slow energy transition was also obvious from a recent report from the Energy Institute that notes that the consumption of crude oil continued in 2022. Although coal consumption fell in North America and Europe, overall global usage increased by 0.6% due to higher demand in India and China (see last week’s Investors Chronicle for more details).

It is very clear that demand for energy is still rising and that the alternative uses of oil/gas in industries such as plastics production and fertilizer production cannot be easily replaced.

The Just Stop Oil promoters are simply ignorant of the consequences of their campaign. See the book “How the World Really Works” which I reviewed for more explanation of the reality – see https://roliscon.blog/2022/02/14/how-the-world-really-works-book-review/ .

It is very clear that so far as investors are concerned, we should not be dashing headlong away from investment in major oil and gas companies. The world’s reliance on them is not disappearing and is actually growing regardless of the hectoring of politicians and environmental campaigners.  

Moving to alternative energy sources for some applications and sectors of the economy, or reducing energy consumption by improved building insulation, may make sense but they are only partial solutions and may only have a major impact in decades in the future, i.e. in longer time horizons than most investors.

Roger Lawson (Twitter: https://twitter.com/RogerWLawson  )

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Segro Results, BP Acquisition and Boltholes in Portugal

Segro (SGRO), a property company with large warehouses, issued their final results this morning. Adjusted profit was up 8.4% but IFRS earnings per share were down substantially. This curate’s egg of results arose because the assets were revalued down by 11% to reflect the general fall in commercial property valuations particularly in the second half of the year, while rental income was up by 18.9%.  Rental income rose due to strong like-for-like rental growth (a 23% average uplift on rent reviews and renewals) and development completions. The full year dividend is increased by 8.2%.

Comment: These results would look really good if the fall in the value of their properties was ignored. They have no control over the latter of course which are affected by macroeconomic conditions, the cyclical nature of property investments and investors’ general view of commercial property which is very negative as other assets such as offices and retail have declined while interest rates have risen. The market has responded positively to these results after an initial hiccup. For the longer-term it’s starting to look very positive.

Energy company BP (BP.) yesterday announced they were acquiring TravelCenters of America for $1.3 billion. TravelCenters operate a network of EV charging points in the USA.

BP is paying about six times Travelcenters EBITDA and their share price rose by 71% on the news. BP is also planning to invest $1 billion in electric vehicle charging across the USA by 2030. This is part of BP’s five “transition growth engines”.

As a shareholder in BP, this looks a sensible investment and is a rebuttable of those who say big oil companies are not doing enough to move away from oil.

Tesla is also expanding its charging network and making it accessible to other vehicle makes. The electric vehicle revolution is clearly accelerating in the USA partly due to US government encouragement.

The bad news today for wealthy investors was that according to the FT Portugal is scrapping its golden visa scheme that gives non-Europeans the right to claim residency in return for investment. With Portugal having low tax rates and a good climate this was a good location for the moderately rich (it only required property investment of Euro500,000).

Roger Lawson (Twitter: https://twitter.com/RogerWLawson )

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We Are All Doomed…..Maybe, and More Green Washing from Up Global

The media reports on COP27 suggest we are all doomed as it is unlikely that we will keep to the target of 1.5 degrees of global warming. This is an unduly pessimistic outcome. A rise in temperature can actually be beneficial in many parts of the world, if damaging in others.

It is certainly sensible to try and reduce carbon emissions in the long-term but there needs to be a cost/benefit justification and a focus on countries that are the biggest carbon emitters – namely China, India, USA, and Russia. For the UK to aim for net zero makes no economic sense.

Meanwhile the UK Government has committed £11.6 billion to a “climate fund” to support a mix of energy transition, climate financing and forest and nature preservation measures. Some of these may be worthy objects but can the country really afford many billions on such projects when our own population is suffering from shortages of food and heating?

There is also a demand for “reparations” for the damage that has been caused by high carbon emissions that has resulted in floods and droughts. That is debateable to begin with and it ignores the benefits brought to the world by the cheap energy available from oil and gas. That has increased food production and enabled the world population to increase to a level that would otherwise have starved. See the book “How the World Really Works” by Prof. Vaclav Smil for the evidence on this subject. Reparations should certainly therefore be rejected.

I am certainly not supportive of the Just Stop Oil campaigners who are simply irrational and I will continue to invest in oil/gas companies but not in coal mining companies while I have been investing in alternative energy funds. Burning coal is a bad option in comparison with generating electricity from wind farms, hydro-electric schemes, solar arrays and other projects.

But we do need to reduce the world’s population if we are to improve the environment which is an objective most of the climate campaigners simply ignore.

Companies are of course jumping on the bandwagon of “green-washing” by issuing policy statements that support ESG policies. The latest example in my stock market portfolio is from Up Global Sourcing (UPGS) who announced today their ESG strategy. This includes a commitment to net zero Scope 1 and 2 and emissions by 2040 and net zero Scope 3 emissions by 2050. Other commitments are:

  • 50% less plastic packaging by 2025 (compared to a 2019 baseline), with the remaining plastic packaging to contain an average of 30% recycled content and be 100% recyclable or reusable.
  • Gender balance in leadership roles by 2030.
  • 40% of Board representation to be female by 2025.
  • 20% of UK workforce to be made up of ethnic minorities by 2030.
  • 60% of UK workforce to be recruited from the local community by 2030, versus 47.2% % today.

Simon Showman, Chief Executive of the company commented: “Striving to do the right thing has always been core to everything that Ultimate Products does”. Surely we can do without such platitudes. As regards the stated objectives it’s worth bearing in mind that the directors making such commitments will likely be long gone by the dates promised. Am I a cynic or just a realist?

Meanwhile the company is part of the global economy with production of the products it sells in the Far East (87% from China) and being shipped thousands of miles via polluting ocean-going vessels burning oil.

If that makes economic sense then I am happy for them to carry on but we could do without the “holier than thou” commitments.

Roger Lawson (Twitter: https://twitter.com/RogerWLawson  )

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Woke Inc and the Corruption of Capitalism

I have been reading the book Woke, Inc. by Vivek Ramaswamy. It’s not a very good book in my opinion so I will not do a detailed review but it does highlight how corporate profits are being diverted to social causes, good and bad, in the USA. It enables directors of public companies to espouse their favourite causes and signal their virtues while shareholders pay the cost of this munificence.

This largesse is also spreading to the UK. Recently Shell UK announced that “British Cycling has signed a long-term partnership that will bring wide-ranging support and investment from Shell UK as a new Official Partner. The agreement starts this month and runs to the end of 2030. This new partnership will see a shared commitment to; supporting Great Britain’s cyclists and para-cyclists through the sharing of world-class innovation and expertise; accelerating British Cycling’s path to net zero…..”. David Bunch, Shell UK Country Chair, said:  “The partnership reflects the shared ambitions of Shell UK and British Cycling to get to net zero in the UK as well as encouraging low and zero-carbon forms of transport such as cycling and electric vehicles”.

Some cyclists promptly accused the company of “greenwashing”, i.e. offsetting their oil/gas pollution by pretending that their profits are going to good causes. But as a shareholder in Shell I object to them redirecting their profits which should go to shareholders to other purposes. Particularly when the clear objective seems to be to reduce consumption of the company’s products.

But companies are now also interfering in politics. So Paypal has been closing the accounts of people and organisations that hold dissident political views. They even closed the account of a UK group that campaigns for free speech. They closed the account without warning, and companies such as Facebook and Twitter have been censoring users who espouse unpopular political views.  

The author of the aforementioned book has even launched two ETFs that explicitly aim to pressure companies to drop efforts to diversify their workforces and their focus on climate change according to an article in the FT. That’s contrary to the stance of many institutional investors such as Blackrock. Ramaswamy says: “In reality, companies like Blackrock, and in particular their leaders, are using social causes as a way of assuming their place in a moral pantheon. And in the process, they’re quietly dropping hints to consumers to take the bait and make purchasing decisions on the basis of moral quality rather than product attributes alone…. Woke consumerism is born when woke companies prey on the insecurities and vulnerabilities of their customers…..”.

Ramaswamy argues that capitalism is being corrupted and companies are abusing their public trust.

Businesses have now gone far beyond the promotion of the interests of stakeholders as well as shareholders (reference Section 172 of the Companies Act). Racing cyclists (the main focus of British Cycling) are hardly a stakeholder in Shell.

Yes they are “greenwashing” and they should not be wasting my money on such trivia.

Roger Lawson (Twitter: https://twitter.com/RogerWLawson  )

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BHP and Woodside Energy Announcements

There were announcements this morning (30/8/2022) from BHP Group (BHP) and Woodside Energy (WDS). Many BHP shareholders will also hold Woodside following the merger of the BHP oil/gas operations into Woodside. I continue to hold both having decided that now was not the time to exit a major gas producer. Institutional investors who wanted out of the sector due to their focus on ESG will surely have been regretting it.

Woodside announced half-year results and their Underlying Net Profit After Tax was up 414% on the prior half year. Obviously there was a positive impact from the merger but the major impact was from higher realised prices for their products which more than doubled to $96.4 per barrel of oil equivalent. If your home heating bills are going up, you can see why! Worldwide gas prices have risen mainly due to the reduction in supplies from Russia after the invasion of Ukraine.

Some 70% of Woodside’s portfolio is in gas production and they continue to invest in new gas developments. But they are also now investing in hydrogen production and carbon capture and storage. You can see a presentation from their CEO on the results here: https://webcast.openbriefing.com/8864/player/?player_id=48929

The announcement from BHP was about three requisitioned resolutions that will be put to the Annual General Meeting. All three are advisory resolutions related to ESG aspects. Resolution 1 simply allows shareholders to express an opinion which is probably harmless.

Resolutions 2 and 3 are more problematic. Resolution 2 requests that the company proactively advocate for Australian policy settings that are consistent with the Paris Agreement objective of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees C. Resolution 3 ensures reporting against the objective of Resolution 2.

I shall be voting against the latter 2 resolutions because there may be no direct connection between the company’s operations and the Paris Agreement to limit carbon emissions. Australia can limit carbon emissions by law if it considers it necessary to do so and in any case a substantial proportion of Woodside’s operations are outside Australia.

Resolution 2 attempts to impose an obligation on the company to interfere in what are political matters in Australia and hence I consider it as unreasonable. It is also unreasonable because more gas production might offset the use of coal for power generation and hence be beneficial in reducing carbon emissions. In reality these resolutions might be impossible to implement in any sensible way.

In summary these resolutions seem to be more about posturing on environmental commitments than practical objectives that the company could implement. They are attempting to force the management to make decisions on what may be best for the business.  

Roger Lawson (Twitter: https://twitter.com/RogerWLawson  )

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Energy Security Bill and the Next Prime Minister

Yesterday the Government introduced the Energy Security Bill into Parliament. It is good to see that the Government continues to function after the recent political upheavals, but would it not be good to get back to some normality as opposed to the recent dramas?

The new Bill aims to:

  • Boost Britain’s energy independence and security.
  • Attract private investment, reindustrialise our economy and create jobs through new clean technologies, as well as protect consumers.
  • Introduce new powers to help prevent disruption to fuel supply because of industrial action, malicious protests and on grounds of national security (comment: surely to be welcomed).

See https://www.gov.uk/government/news/plans-to-bolster-uk-energy-security-set-to-become-law for details.

It includes new powers which will enable the extension of the energy price cap beyond 2023, shielding millions of customers across the country from being charged “unfair” prices as they call it. Or to put it another way – to protect consumers from the real world of market prices and hence making it uneconomic for some companies to operate in this sector. This is surely not a very “conservative” approach!  There are better ways to subsidise household fuel bills.

The clear objective is to reduce reliance on imported oil and gas and encourage offshore wind farms, nuclear power generation and other infrastructure that we need to achieve carbon reductions although the growth of nuclear is still at a snail’s pace. It is certainly worth reading the document on the Bill’s contents and the associated British Energy Security Strategy mentioned in it.

Let us hope that any new Prime Minister does not get the job by promising more tax cuts. It’s clear that Government expenditure is rising by commitments in the Energy Security Bill for example and in many other areas when what is really needed is reducing the amount of our wealth that is spent by the Government. In the last couple of years we have had a quasi-socialist economy with more willingness to interfere in the economy by the Government. But civil servants consistently back the wrong horses.

What the country really needs is a period of stability under a competent leader who everyone can support. That is the way forward for a good business environment which will instil confidence in investors, particularly ones overseas.

Roger Lawson (Twitter: https://twitter.com/RogerWLawson  )

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Is ESG Mania Out of Hand?

This week the mania for Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) issues in companies appeared to get totally out of hand. ESG is a ragbag of policies that companies like to support to show how socially aware they are and are in keeping with the times and the mood of the public. Here are a couple of examples of this mania:

A report by Cliff Weight on the Tesco AGM noted this response to a question: “Are you plainly making a token gesture to climate change? Answer. We have >350 people working on these issues. We are very conscious of our responsibilities”. What exactly can these 350 people be working on? It seems a ridiculously high figure even allowing for the fact that Tesco has about 2,700 stores in the UK. The cost of 350 people must be high and these people are simply an unproductive overhead which all good businesses try to minimise. They are not adding to sales or making the business more efficient.

I also read the Annual Report of Speedy Hire – all 212 pages of it printed on heavy paper to add to our postman’s load. For a company that is in the business of hiring out tools and equipment they found it necessary to spend 2 pages on ESG issues and how they are reducing carbon emissions by converting to electric or hybrid vehicles. Their new “innovation centre” depot in Milton Keynes is powered by 670 solar panels and is also “home to a wellbeing and wildflower garden, an 18-metre living wall and beehives made from repurposed hard hats”.

The Report also says: “Speedy has long been committed to sustainable growth and recognises the increasing stakeholder focus on climate change and the related environmental, social and governance considerations within its business. A new Sustainability Committee of the Board has been established to assist the Board in its oversight of the Company’s ESG strategy and support the Board on all sustainability matters. This will include supporting the Board’s ongoing evaluation of environmental risks and our reporting under the Taskforce for Climate Related Financial Disclosures”. So that’s more unproductive effort to divert the attention of management.

These are typical examples of what every Annual Report of public companies now contain with companies keen to demonstrate that they are in the vanguard of a social revolution. But does it really help to improve the returns to shareholders?

A report in the FT suggests there is some reaction against this mania with an article headlined “Shareholders back away from green petitions in US proxy voting season”. The article suggests shareholder resolutions on ESG issues are being defeated, particularly those that impose prescriptions on management although there is more support for improved reporting.

Perhaps if we are heading into a recession as some people believe, we may see a reduction in this needless expenditure of money and management time on unproductive issues.

Note that I hold no shares in Tesco or Speed Hire at the present time.

Roger Lawson (Twitter: https://twitter.com/RogerWLawson  )

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A Great Article from Matt Ridley on Global Warming

Matt Ridley has issued a great blog article on “How Global Warming Can Be Good For Us”. The author of many books on science which are all worth reading, he argues in his latest article that global warming is real, but so far it is mostly beneficial. The biggest benefit from emissions is global greening as forests expand and more rainfall means more land can be cultivated. But there are several other advantages which are ignored by the prophets of doom and popular media who prefer to report only bad news.

For a more balanced view of the problem, read the article here: https://www.rationaloptimist.com/blog/how-global-warming-can-be-good/

Roger Lawson (Twitter: https://twitter.com/RogerWLawson  )

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