Category: Politics

Summer at Last and Political Issues Rising

Yes the sun is out and there is not a cloud in the sky – although thunderstorms are threatened for later today.

Keir Starmer has said he will reduce the number of immigrants which he now seems to accept have got out of hands. But exactly how he will do this is not really clear. Minor changes to rules imposed by the ECHR will not suffice. The real problem is some lawyers have got out of hand and have finessed the legal system to put obstacles in the way of any restrictions. They have been supported by funding from legal aid and from charities. Unless such funding is stopped, not a lot will change.

We need an Act of Parliament that stops funding of legal appeals regarding refusal of admittance.

The Telegraph ran a good article today on how Starmer made past promises to stop illegal immigration, none of which were carried through or had much impact – see https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2025/05/12/keir-starmer-has-changed-his-tune-on-immigration/

Why the sudden urgency to do something about immigration? It’s because the Reform Party are now looking a serious threat to both Labour and Conservative Parties. Recent opinion polls and local election results put Reform well in the lead. Personally I won’t be changing my voting intentions unless I see some actual results from the Labour initiative. But Chris Philp M.P. (shadow Home Secretary) is doing a good job at promoting some Conservative Party initiatives on immigration. He has always impressed me with his ability to put forward practical and popular policies. He would be a better leader for the Conservative Party than current or recent ones.

If you think immigration is out of hand in this country and that it could not get worse, just look at Sweden. Gang warfare has broken out and even children are paid to commit crimes including murder as they cannot be prosecuted. Over the 20 years since I worked for a Swedish company, the culture of Sweden has changed from being a safe and disciplined country to one of rampant crime. This is a direct result of excessive immigration. See https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/11/30/sweden-gangs-child-contract-killings-foxtrot-young-offender/

Another big political issue at present is free speech in the UK. There have been several examples recently of the police prosecuting or harassing people who might have said allegedly offensive words on social media (for example the case of Julian Foulkes). I certainly think it has gone to far and I today joined the Free Speech Union (see https://freespeechunion.org/) who have been supporting challenges to the misuse of legislation in this area. Even I am at risk of falling foul of some misguided police challenges after some over-sensitive person complains about my political views!

Roger Lawson (Twitter: https://x.com/RogerWLawson  )

You can obtain notifications of new posts in future by following me on Twitter (now “X”) – see https://x.com/RogerWLawson where new blog posts are usually mentioned.

Introduction of “Deportation” Bill

The Conservative Party have introduced a Deportation Bill to Parliament. Chris Philp MP, Shadow Home Secretary, said: “Labour and Reform are both complicit in the trade of empty slogans and hollow promises. Our plan can be enacted now to get immigration back under control.”

The Bill’s main elements are:

  • Automatic deportation for anyone who arrives in the country illegally.
  • Introducing an annual cap on migration – Ensuring migration levels are determined by the British people. 
  • Doubling the residency requirement for Indefinite Leave to Remain from 5 to 10 years – British citizenship is a privilege to be earned, not a right to be claimed. 
  • Creating new powers to revoke Indefinite Leave to Remain – Allowing us to remove those who have become a burden to the UK.
  • Disapplying the Human Rights Act from all immigration-related matters – Preventing foreign nationals from exploiting our court system.
  • Increasing the salary threshold for work visas to £38,700.
  • Introducing powers to deport all foreign criminals – If you break the law here, you go home.

This all seems eminently sensible to me. But what is the chance of it becoming law? Rather low I suspect because the Labour Party is keen to have more low-paid immigrants in the country who are more likely to vote for them as the UK’s social security system is way too generous and easy to exploit. Gerrymandering is the name of the game.

More information here: https://www.conservatives.com/news/conservatives-introduce-the-deportation-bill

Roger Lawson (Twitter: https://x.com/RogerWLawson  )

You can obtain notifications of new posts in future by following me on Twitter (now “X”) – see https://x.com/RogerWLawson where new blog posts are usually mentioned.

Political Revolution in the Making and VE-Day Reminiscence

Political Revolution in the Making

With the Reform Party winning the by-election in Runcorn, its first two mayoral positions, and taking control of a number of local councils in England, it is clearly on a roll. Is this the end of two-party politics as Nigel Farage has suggested? Perhaps I would say but if it’s a victory for democracy it’s also surely more down to having two weak leaders in the Labour and Conservative parties while Nigel Farage represents the views of many on the big issue of immigration.

But it also demonstrates that Reform have built a local party machine with active supporters who can win elections, and have the funding to do so. They are not going to go away. Even more to the point, it suggests that we really do need a system of proportional representation to stop the “winner takes all” and divisive politics of the older parties. The socially divisive Labour and Conservative parties need to change their politics and public images so that they can represent everyone.

VE-Day Reminiscence

VE-Day which celebrates the end of the war in Europe is on the 8th May. It’s a good moment to recall what my father wrote in his diary on that day in 1945.  

My father worked for Boots in a reserved occupation maintaining their power station. Although he did briefly join the Home Guard he generally avoided military service. This is what he wrote in the days before and after the celebration day:

Sunday, May 6. Yesterday afternoon I did three hours hard work fixing a 1 kw heater in the upstairs water tank. I scrounged it from Bob some years ago and it will probably come in handy next winter, when coal supplies look like being even less than last. It was raining hard all day but milder.

Today was bright and sunny but there was a cool wind. Out before dinner with Grandpa and the lad and again after dinner to the University Park [in Nottingham] and took two snaps [one below is of my mother Nell and brother Adrian].

There was nasty news last night of the Russians dealing with the so called Democratic Poles, whom they now admit, after much delay and prevarication, to have arrested on vague charges of “sabotage” etc! A shocking business, which hasn’t made a good impression either here or in the USA. The Russians are a bit too keen on setting up their own governments in the liberated countries and I fancy we are not going to stand for it very much longer.

Wednesday, May 9. Well at long last, the announcement came of the end of the war in Europe. Rumours were circulating at 3 o’clock on Monday but I didn’t take much notice until CHJ told me and Fred Sutcliffe that it was semi-official and that the news would “break” at 9 pm. We argued for an hour about what to do; but in the absence of definite news, we decided we’d wait and see. At 8:30 pm the announcement was made that Churchill would speak at 3 pm on Tuesday. I rang CHJ and he was in a fog and told me he would get Bull. He did and told me that Bull also couldn’t make up his mind just whether it meant 2 days or only 1 day’s holiday. But at the 9 pm news it was made quite clear, so I went down there and got the arrangements made.

Yesterday I went to work, just to make sure but found the boys all shut down and away (by 8:40 am!). Jack Spenser rolled up also by 10:30 am and we adjourned to the Chequers, where a crowd was congregated waiting for opening time at 11:30 am. We got a pint each and by 11.50, the beer was all sold and we had to content ourselves with a Guinness each in a pint mug. I paid for that in a headache, which lasted the rest of the day. After tea, Nell and I went to the pictures but after three quarters of an hour, I couldn’t stand any more, so we left. Where such drivel comes from I don’t know. I forgot that after dinner, being fine and sunny after rain, we went into the University Park, where I got two snaps. The evening was quiet except for a few fireworks in the garden 2 doors away. Bed by 11 o’clock, very thankful that the job is finished.

VE Day Today was a grand day of sun, though with a fairly high wind. We took Adrian out before dinner and after, I went with Nell to play tennis but we only got 20 mins play when Adrian began to howl, so we were forced to abandon the game. We were home by 3:30 pm and after taking my last snap, we have just packed him off.

Well, I wonder what will happen now. All the shouting is still to do but on the whole, I fancy we may see a steady rise in our standard of living for the next 10 years; after that I’m not so sure. But there is much reconstruction to be done and I think Germany will be no great competitor for many years. Russia and the USA will take some holding though and whether the Commonwealth will hold together much longer is an open question. Sentiment alone counts for little now.

<End>

My father clearly foretold the threats from Russia and the USA which we are still living through. But the UK economy was in a dire state in 1945 and the difficulties are made clear in the book by Ed Conway which I reviewed here: https://roliscon.blog/2025/02/24/book-reviews-j-d-rockefeller-and-ed-conway/ . It covers the Bretton Woods conference which set the structure of international finance since 1945.

Roger Lawson (Twitter: https://x.com/RogerWLawson  )

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Should I Sell US Stocks?

Easter gives one time to review your share portfolios. In last week’s Investors Chronicle John Rosier reviewed his portfolio and the impact of Trump tariffs. He has been “purging” US exposure from his funds portfolio. He has sold Polar Capital Technology (PCT) and JPMorgan Global Growth and Income (JGGI), both of which I hold, and several others. The exposure of Fundsmith Equity to US Stocks also proved unhelpful to his overall performance and mine.   

With the S&P 500 down 10% in the last six months, is it time to refocus on other markets and dump US holdings? I am not so sure.

It has certainly been the case that buying the US markets has been a simplistic trading strategy in the last couple of years. You couldn’t go far wrong by investing in US companies or US index trackers. Tariffs will certainly have a negative impact on the US economy and several other countries. China should be particularly badly hit.

But has the world really changed?  Famous investor Warren Buffett has said in the past “never bet against America” and he has proved right so far. The size and vibrancy of the US economy is not easy to beat and trade tariffs may only have a temporary impact. The US economy is so attractive to the best and brightest immigrants that it is like a lamp to a moth. That accounts for much of the success of the US technology sector in recent years.

It’s exceedingly difficult to predict what will happen to the world economy and changing portfolios based on short-term economic forecasts is surely a mistake.

There may be some opportunities to pick up as panicking investors dump holdings of US stocks or funds because they are scared of what Trump might do next, but this is surely a time for holding one’s nerve, not for responding to emotions. The dominance of index tracking funds is making the waves of emotions that sweep stock markets more pronounced than ever but now is not the time to ride those waves.  

With signs that progress on peace in Ukraine and Gaza is looking more likely, it is time to be optimistic rather than pessimistic about the state of the world and the major economies.

The UK economy is a different story though. Higher taxes are going to have a negative impact while Trump is aiming to reduce US taxes by cutting Government expenditure. He surely has the better strategy.

Roger Lawson (Twitter: https://x.com/RogerWLawson  )

You can obtain notifications of new posts in future by following me on Twitter (now “X”) – see https://x.com/RogerWLawson where new blog posts are usually mentioned.

British Steel Takeover

On Saturday the Government took control of British Steel, although this is not a conventional nationalisation. See https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c230g09lvv9o for background. If you read the Act of Parliament that was passed you will see it is a quite short and remarkable Bill – see https://bills.parliament.uk/bills/3961 . It gives the Government powers to manage the company but not ownership.

It must surely lead to Government financial control and hence nationalisation in fairly short order. According to the current Chinese owners (Jingye) the company is losing £700,000 per day so the only way this business can be kept afloat is by massive Government subsidies out of your taxes.

With no UK supplies of coking coal required to operate a blast furnace (the Labour Government recently blocked opening of a mine to supply such coal), and no low-cost UK supplies of iron ore, it is difficult to see how a UK based steel business can ever compete on the world stage. It will always be uneconomic particularly when it has to adhere to the Government’s net-zero policy which is making UK electric power the most expensive in the world. Changing the Scunthorpe blast furnaces to electric arc ones will neither be economic nor produce good quality steel.

In reality the takeover of British Steel has been economic suicide with no sensible business plan in place.

Roger Lawson (Twitter: https://x.com/RogerWLawson  )

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Trump Tariffs and Trade Impacts

US President Donald Trump yesterday announced a whole range of new import taxes (tariffs) on goods imported to the USA. This BBC page gives you a list of major countries affected: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c1jxrnl9xe2o

The president said the US had for more than five decades been “looted, pillaged, raped and plundered by nations near and far, both friend and foe alike”.

The UK will face a base tariff of 10% but it will be 25% on motor cars. But we are getting off lightly in comparison with many other countries such as China (54%) and the whole of the EU (20%). Aren’t you glad we left the EU?

These tariff rates are designed to not just be reciprocal rates to those imposed on US imports but also designed to compensate for non-tariff trade barriers such as regulations that discriminate against US products.

The negative impact on the UK stock market has been quite prompt as many UK companies export manufactured products to the USA. But you can also view these changes as giving a competitive advantage to UK manufacturers as tariffs imposed on their products will be less than from many other countries!

In reality many UK manufacturers have facilities in the USA – for example Rolls-Royce aero engines. This will offset some of the damage from tariffs.

What’s my view? Barriers to trade are never welcome as they depress economic activity. But the USA is not being unfair in trying to rebalance world trade more in their favour.

What’s your view?

Roger Lawson (Twitter: https://x.com/RogerWLawson  )

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Should the Government Protect the Steel Industry?

The potential closure of the last blast furnaces in the UK has brought out politicians in force to condemn the deindustrialisation of the country. Even the Reform Party has commented on it with Richard Tice saying that the UK will be world leading in “naive stupidity”. The main question is should the Government protect “strategic” industries by subsidising loss-making businesses out of taxation. By “strategic” they mean an essential element in the engineering sector which is a cornerstone on which other companies rely.

I exchanged comments on X (Twitter) on this issue where I said “if other countries can make steel cheaper, let them” which got a vigorous response. The Telegraph even claimed that the Government was considering using terror laws to nationalise British Steel.

Now I recall debating the question of whether the Government should interfere in declining industries to protect UK engineering and other “key” industries with a Professor at Cranfield University when I was doing an MBA in 1985 – yes many years ago! The issues are still live it seems.

I do have an engineering degree but at the time I worked for a retailing company. My view has not changed. Our taxes should not be used to prop up declining industries even if there are a few votes to support it.

The Government published a consultation on a strategy for the steel industry in February – see here: https://www.gov.uk/government/consultations/input-into-the-steel-strategy/the-steel-strategy-the-plan-for-steel

There are alternative ways of producing steel instead of using blast furnaces – such as electric arc furnaces which can use scrap steel. And there are many alternative countries who can produce steel and who wish to protect their production as they are fool enough to do so. The world is not going to run out of steel.

If the Government is going to interfere in industries they should be supporting growth sectors not declining ones.

Roger Lawson (Twitter: https://x.com/RogerWLawson  )

You can obtain notifications of new posts in future by following me on Twitter (now “X”) – see https://x.com/RogerWLawson where new blog posts are usually mentioned.

Benefits Squeeze and Moving to Isle of Man

There has been considerable negative comment on the Chancellor’s attack on social security benefits. There could be over 1 million people affected by substantial reductions in Personal Independence Payments (PIPs). I will avoid comment on the morality or necessity of this but the fact that there are such large amounts currently paid out which means the reduction could be up to £6,300 per year surely indicates that the scheme is quite generous at present – maximum payments under PIP can be up to £9,500 per year.

The reports reminded me to look at whether my wife would qualify for Carers Allowance which might be under attack as I am registered disabled and get an Attendance Allowance payment (it’s not means tested). That might qualify her for a Carers Allowance as she does the washing and sometimes takes me to doctor’s appointments. But the rules are so complicated this will take some time to look into. See https://www.gov.uk/carers-allowance/eligibility for details.  The whole system of financial support for disabled people needs simplifying.

Meanwhile should I research moving to the Isle of Man? The island’s parliament has decided to support assisted dying for residents which I wholeheartedly support while the similar English legislation is bogged down in delays. With very low income taxes (see https://taxsummaries.pwc.com/isle-of-man/individual/taxes-on-personal-income ) and no capital gains tax it looks very attractive now even if the weather might not be great.  

Roger Lawson (Twitter: https://x.com/RogerWLawson  )

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Chancellor’s Spring Statement and MP Evans Webinar

I missed watching Rachel Reeves giving her Spring Statement live because it clashed with a presentation from M.P.Evans Group (MPE) I wished to watch – see below. But there were numerous reports I could read later. There were no great surprises. The Chancellor is aiming to save £3.4 billions on welfare payments and £3.6 billions on “other departmental” costs. But there is increased expenditure on the Justice Department to offset that.

A discussion on tv channels afterwards suggested that some benefit recipients, presumably those receiving Universal Credit payments, will lose over £4,000 per year. There is going to be some squealing as a result no doubt. But when you have to cut your budgets to stay solvent, then there is little option.

M.P. Evans Webinar

M.P. Evans Group is a producer of palm oil and associated products in Indonesia (mainly Sumatra). I recently purchased a few shares and the presentation of their final results was most informative – and kept me awake that is more than I can say for some webinars.

There was a useful slide showing the breakdown of the vegetable oil market. That includes rapeseed oil which I recently commented upon and am now avoiding. Palm Oil is now taking up a larger share of a growing market which now includes usage in biodiesel. Production by MP Evans was much the same as in the previous year despite challenges from dry weather but prices of palm oil increased so revenues and profits increased last year. They could therefore afford a17% increase in the dividend.

On a prospective p/e of 8.8 and a dividend yield of 4.8 according to Stockopedia the shares do not look expensive but there may be substantial risks from investing in a country with its main operations in Indonesia even if the company is registered in the UK and has a long track record. It will clearly be sensitive to commodity prices.

It was interesting to note that the war in Ukraine had an impact on the company as their costs are affected by the price of fertilizer.

I will do some more research on the company and track it for the moment.  

The MP Evans webinar was on the Investor Meet Company platform and will no doubt soon be available as a recording there.

Roger Lawson (Twitter: https://x.com/RogerWLawson  )

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Covid-19 Pandemic Five Year Anniversary

The BBC broadcast a documentary this week commemorating the five-year anniversary of the start of the Covid-19 epidemic. It is entitled “Love and Loss – The Pandemic: Five Years On”.

I watched it because I thought it might be of interest but it mainly consisted of individual sob stories. It didn’t attempt to trace the cause of the epidemic or the Government’s reaction to it. You can find the programme on BBC’s I-Player.

If you wish to trace the track of the epidemic and the prevention measures taken in the UK you might do better to read the diary I started in 2020 which was later published on Amazon under the title “A Journal of the Coronavirus Year”. See https://www.roliscon.com/journal-of-coronavirus-year for more details.

I started it because I thought I had little chance of surviving as I have a suppressed immune system but I never got the infection. That may be because I had numerous vaccinations for the disease and was careful to avoid crowds and public transport.

Some members of my family did seem to get infected but with relatively mild symptoms.

It is still unclear exactly where the disease originated from but it now seems likely that it escaped from a laboratory in China that were experimenting on viruses. The latest death toll from the disease is reported to be over 7 million worldwide.  

The cost of the epidemic had a major impact on the UK Government’s finances and we will learn the latest bad news on that later today when the Chancellor gives her spring statement.

Roger Lawson (Twitter: https://x.com/RogerWLawson  )

You can obtain notifications of new posts in future by following me on Twitter (now “X”) – see https://x.com/RogerWLawson where new blog posts are usually mentioned.