Category: Politics

The Budget – Not Much in it for Investors

Jeremy Hunt’s first budget was a sober affair. No fireworks and little rhetoric which is as it should be. There was very little in it for private investors unless you have children or are still putting money into a pension.

The main points to note are that while tax allowances are still frozen, the £1.07 million pension cap is being dropped and the yearly allowance increased to £60,000. These should help highly paid folks such as medical consultants. The ISA allowance will remain at £20,000 for another year.

Fuel duty will remain frozen and the energy price cap will be extended for another 3 months.

Inflation is forecast to fall to 2.9% by the end of 2023 and we will avoid a recession this year after all. This should boost the stock market but hasn’t so far. Perhaps like me investors don’t believe that inflation will fall that rapidly because once it is entrenched and employees demand more in a spiral then it is difficult to stop.

As with all budgets there is lots of tinkering with grants for this that and the other where the Chancellor claims to be responding to public needs but it’s all virtue signalling and mainly a waste of time. For example £200 million to fix pot holes – the Chancellor clearly has no idea how much they cost to repair and the size of the backlog!

At least that’s my view.

Roger Lawson (Twitter: https://twitter.com/RogerWLawson )

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DotDigital Webinar, Wandisco Announcement and Immigration Laws

I watched the DotDigital (DOTD) interim results presentation on the Investor Meets Company platform this morning. I have held the shares for a number of years and have been happy with the company’s progress in general.

For the half year revenue was up 9%, with 95% being recurring. Adjusted EBITDA was slightly down but cash balance was up 24%. What are they going to do with the cash? They are looking at M&A activity.

There was a good competitive review. It is clear that the market for similar products is now quite mature so poaching from other suppliers is the name of the game and more consolidation among suppliers is likely. Their US market position is still unclear although they report “early evidence of success in the USA” after management changes and rebuilding the sales team.

It seems likely that steady growth should be achievable from more geographic expansion, more partnerships and the addition of more product features regardless of US success.

Another technology company that made a devastating announcement this morning was Wandisco (WAND). They said “The Board now expects that anticipated FY22 revenue could be as low as USD 9 million and not USD 24 million as previously reported. In addition, the Company has no confidence in its announced FY22 bookings expectations”. They blame one senior sales employee for “significant, sophisticated and potentially fraudulent irregularities with regard to received purchase orders and related revenue and bookings”. The shares have been suspended

I have looked at this share a number of times as I have a historic interest in database replication, but never acquired the shares. I can understand the need for what they sell but the accounts always looked dubious to me. Revenue very volatile and profits non-existent. I prefer to invest in relatively boring companies like DOTD with large recurring revenue based on a different business model.

On the political front an enormous amount of media coverage is on the small boat crisis and the attempts by the Government to halt illegal immigrants. These are mostly economic migrants, not people fleeing war or other disasters.

It is suggested that the proposed Government legislation would be illegal, because it contravenes the European Convention on Human Rights and the Refugee Convention. The latter was established in 1951 to help people made homeless or stateless by the Second World War and was a very positive move at the time. But it was never intended to enhance the rights of economic migrants who wish to move to a wealthier country.

I suggest that a breach of a Convention is not necessarily illegal and that the UK can withdraw from Conventions whenever it considers it necessary to do so. The country is being swamped by migrants, both legal and illegal ones.  This is putting enormous pressure on housing and social services.

For example the London Borough of Lewisham have recently published a new “Local Plan” and it reports these statistics: The population has grown by 23% over the last 20 years and is still growing rapidly. Some 46% of the residents identify as BAME heritage which rises to 76% for the school population. This shows the impact of uncontrolled immigration over the last 50 years, but the Council is still “planning for an open Lewisham”. That’s undefined but suggests that they are open to even more migration.

The BBC, as is now commonplace, spouts the views of left-wing commentators including that of a well-known footballer for no good reason. His views on football may be sound but he does not understand the problem of illegal immigrants.

Will the Government be able to halt the flow of illegal immigrants? Only if they take a very tough stance in my view.

Roger Lawson (Twitter: https://twitter.com/RogerWLawson )

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A New National Purpose?

The Tony Blair Institute for Global Change has published a report, jointly authored by Tony Blair, William Hague et al, which has received wide media coverage. It recommends a “radical new policy agenda” that will transcend the current fray of political ideology.

It’s worth reading (see link below) and I will pick out some of the important points in it:

It recommends “building foundational AI-era infrastructure”. This should include: 1) Government-led development of sovereign general-purpose AI systems, enabled by the required supercomputing capabilities, to underpin broad swaths of public-service delivery; 2) A national health infrastructure that brings together interoperable data platforms into a world-leading system that is able to bring down ever-increasing costs through operational efficiencies; 3) A secure, privacy-preserving digital ID for citizens that allows them to quickly interact with government services, while also providing the state with the ability to better target support.

To encourage investment in “growth equity” it suggests encouragement of pension scheme consolidation by limiting capital gains tax exemption to funds with over £20 billion under management (it argues that there are too many small schemes).

It suggests Increasing public research and development (R&D) investment to make the UK a leader among comparable nations within five years, coupled with reforms to the way our institutions of science, research and innovation are funded and regulated to give more freedom and better incentives. Investing in new models of organising science and technology research, including greatly expanding the Advanced Research and Invention Agency (ARIA), and creating innovative laboratories that seed new industries by working at the intersection of cutting-edge science and engineering.

Comments:

The proposals for a “national health infrastructure” seems to be reviving the old concept of a single monolithic patient record system which was abandoned after unsuccessful implementation and the waste of many billions of pounds. Trusts and hospitals now have disparate systems but interoperability is the key while the Government is funding “digital transformation” and having some impact on improving systems. We don’t need a new “big bang” approach with the enormous costs incurred with chosen consultancy firms.

The report appears to suggest that technology can solve all the problems in the NHS by improving productivity. But this is nonsense. Management is the problem, not lack of technology.

The report has a touching faith in the possible impact of AI. So it says: “As a general-purpose technology, AI has the potential to make an unprecedented impact that will exceed those of the steam engine and electricity combined during the industrial revolutions. These previous revolutions focused on the harnessing of energy to mechanise physical labour, but our current revolution is the first in history to automate cognition itself”.

AI is improving but it so far has limited applications. The fact that products such as ChatGPT can help students to write essays (albeit with frequent factual errors) by completing sentences based on internet word frequencies does not herald a revolution in productivity.

The report strongly promotes digital identities. So it says: “Today, many of us can set up a bank account in minutes and pay for shopping at the tap of a watch or phone. For the generation now entering middle age, this level of digital simplicity and streamlining is expected as a default while those in their 20s have grown up in an entirely digital age. Despite this, government records are still based in a different era. The debate over digital IDs has raged in the UK for decades. In a world in which everything from vaccine status to aeroplane tickets and banking details are available on our personal devices, it is illogical that the same is not true of our individual public records”.

I personally would welcome a digital ID. At present I have over 500 separate log-ins for different organisations which I have to record and manage with some help from technology. But I still occasionally have to prove who I am by submitting copies of a passport or driving licence and proof of residence by a copy of a utility bill. This is archaic nonsense when companies such as Experian or GB Group can already verify my identity from their records.

But the NHS and Government bodies like HMRC have separate systems which still require separate log-ins. The report suggests personal data should be shareable between organisations but that should only be permitted for digital IDs when a user permits it.

The report says: “Governments are the original issuers and source of truth for most identity documents, from birth certificates to passports. Rather than creating a marketplace of private-sector providers to manage the government-issued identity credentials of citizens, the government should provide a secure, private, decentralised digital-ID system for the benefit of both citizens and businesses. A well-designed, decentralised digital-ID system would allow citizens to prove not only who they are, but also their right to live and work in the UK, their age and ownership of a driving licence. It could also accommodate credentials issued by other authorities, such as educational or vocational qualifications. This would make it cheaper, easier and more secure to access a range of goods and services, online and in person. A digital ID could help the government to understand users’ needs and preferences better, improving the design of public services. It would make it simpler and easier to access benefits, reducing the number of people who are missing out on support they are entitled to. It could even help the government move to a more proactive model, meeting people’s needs before they apply for a service, tailoring the services and support they are offered to their individual circumstances and reducing administrative burdens on both individuals and the public sector”.

Some of that goes far beyond what is necessary or wise. But giving everyone a digital ID from birth is surely a good idea. Almost everyone already has a National Insurance Number so this is not a new concept but it needs extending to provide digital ID verification. Other countries such as Finland and Ukraine are ahead of the UK already in this regard.

The report has some interesting things to say about the lack of investment in the UK. For example: “Despite startup financing being the focus of several government reviews and new funds, the UK has continually struggled to deliver a sufficient scale and volume of patient and growth capital to the country’s startup companies. The UK’s DB pensions industry is fragmented, with over 5,300 schemes with an average size of £330 million. Their investment strategies, driven by risk-averse corporate sponsors and finite investment horizons, have typically pursued a zero-risk approach. According to Michael Tory, co-founder of the advisory firm Ondra Partners, the UK is one of the only major economies where domestic pension funds have in effect abandoned investment in UK companies. The proportion of UK pension funds invested in bonds increased from less than 20 per cent in 2000 to 72 per cent in 2021, even as their investments in UK equities dropped from 50 per cent of their asset allocation in 2000 to just 4 per cent in 2021”.

This is certainly an area that the Government should look at. Effectively pension funds have become risk averse due to the imposition of regulations that require limitation of risk.

In conclusion the report suggests that technology can solve many of the UK’s economic and social problems. It is way too optimistic in that regard but it does contain a large number of suggestions for where improvements could be made.

Full Report: https://institute.global/policy/new-national-purpose-innovation-can-power-future-britain

Roger Lawson (Twitter: https://twitter.com/RogerWLawson )

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It’s All Good News Today

With my stock market portfolio picking up in value, the even better news was that Nicola Sturgeon is resigning as First Minister of Scotland. I don’t often comment on politics but Ms Sturgeon was a very divisive leader who chose to push for Scottish Independence in the face of any rational analysis of what might happen to Scotland economically if that was achieved. Even after she lost the referendum vote on it she persisted in pushing for it. She also managed to mismanage the Scottish NHS and more recently fell over backwards over what is a woman.

Whenever she spoke on television I was revolted by her ignorance of the outcome of the policies she was pursuing. Like Sadiq Khan in London, she blamed all her problems on central Government when they were of her own making.

Other good news is that inflation has fallen slightly to 10.1% and the sun is coming out. Crocuses are flowering in our garden and spring is on its way.

In addition I had a phone call from Computershare about my problem with Diploma dividend payments (see previous blog post) and it seems they are going to waive the claimed administration fee. It always pays to complain!

What cheered me up also was reading about the problems of Rolls-Royce (RR.) in Investors Chronicle. The article headlined “Is Rolls-Royce in decline?” and covered recent comments by the new CEO such as “Every investment we make, we destroy value”, “We underperform every key competitor out there…” and “This is out last chance. We have a burning platform… it cannot continue”. What a way to demotivate staff or put a rocket under their backsides.

I worked very briefly for Rolls-Royce 50 years ago and did hold the shares a few years back – sold at 300p in 2015 when they are now 108p. So I missed that falling knife. I sold way before the pandemic hit airline travel and sales of jet engines because I came to the conclusion that their accounting was way too optimistic.

Incidentally I am currently reading a book entitled “Power Failure” on the rise and fall of General Electric who are of course one of the competitors for Rolls-Royce in the aero engine market. I may write a review of the book at a later date. It’s only 800 pages long. Oh so I hate these lengthy tomes when the authors could have communicated their message in so many fewer words.   

Roger Lawson (Twitter: https://twitter.com/RogerWLawson )

2022 Was Not So Bad

In a previous blog post I mentioned the book “The Stock Market” by John Littlewood after reading the first few chapters that covered the years 1945-1960. I have now finished the rest of the book which covers the years 1961 to 1990.

If you think the 1950s were bad for stock market investors, then the 1970s were even worse. Shares lost roughly a third of their value in 1973. In January 1974 the Arab countries announced that oil prices were to be doubled for the second time. Meanwhile the miners went on strike and a “hung” Parliament with no overall control was the result of a general election. Dennis Healey increased both personal and business taxes with the top rate of income tax being set at 83%, or 98% on investment income. The Government tried to impose price controls but that did not stop rising inflation which was over 16% in mid-1974.

To quote Mr Littlewood: “The experience of 1974 is visited on investors perhaps only once in a lifetime, but, when it happens, it leaves behind deep scars that last for many years. Many private investors abandoned the stock market for good”.

The market did recover in the 1970s although in 1979 Russia invaded Afghanistan without warning and there were wars in the Middle East which disturbed markets. There was a long bull market until the crash in October 1987 at the same time as the great storm in southern England. Over two days the UK All Share Index fell by 20%. There were similar falls in other international markets.

The UK was dogged by strikes in the 1970s with businesses often becoming uncompetitive in comparison with other industrialised countries. Nothing much changed until Margaret Thatcher became Prime Minister in 1979. Thereafter she stood up to the miners, changed strike legislation and embarked on a period of privatisation (or de-nationalisation as it could be otherwise called) plus adopted a sound money policy.

The 1970s show strong parallels with the last two years. Rising inflation worldwide due to lax policies on money supply (called QE recently) and wars affecting the supply of basic commodities such as food and oil/gas.

This is what Mr Littlewood had to say about Mrs Thatcher and her policies: “Margaret Thatcher led from the front on privatisation. For the Labour party and the trade unions, she was plunging a knife into the heart of deeply held beliefs. Many in her own party would have left well alone, and many in the City were unable to comprehend the scale of her ambition or recognise the confidence she was placing in the capitalist system, but her analysis was impeccable.

In State-owned businesses, the discipline of the threat of bankruptcy is absent. The threat of takeover is also removed, and there are none of the sanctions of reporting to shareholders or being judged on performance by fund managers and investment analysts. Capital requests for investment are judged more by the political whims of government expenditure targets than by an objective assessment of the merits of the project. In Britain, the nationalised industries had become sheltered havens for the producers and the unions at the expense of customers. It was not until some years after the completion of privatisation, that the extent of over-manning and over-charging became apparent as, at one and the same time, prices fell in real terms and profits rose”.

This is a very good summary of the ills of the UK in the post-war years some of which can still be seen in some sectors of the economy such as the railways and the NHS.

On a personal note, the Lawson household has been disrupted since xmas by medical problems. Both younger grandsons got infections and daughter-in-law ended up in hospital for a few days – after waiting for a vacant bed for more than 24-hours.

The NHS is a nationalised industry that demonstrates all the ills mentioned above. More money gets ploughed into it with little obvious impact while the service level declines. In my opinion it needs to be privatised (and I am a big personal user of it so have seen it first-hand).

To conclude, Mr Littlewood’s book is a great analysis of the economic and political factors that drove the stock market in the years covered. It explains in detail the market changes such as the impact of  “Big Bang” and how investors were affected.

You will realise after reading the book that the 2020s have been a relatively benign period in comparison with the last century and that all stock markets are in essence highly volatile even if equities are still a better long-term bet than bonds. It should be essential reading for all investment managers and politicians.

Roger Lawson (Twitter: https://twitter.com/RogerWLawson )

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Interest Rate Rise, Strikes and Xmas Reading

I am still hoping for a Santa rally in share prices but they are certainly not happening today. The Bank of England raising interest rates by 0.5% to 3.5% has surely had a negative impact. These are some of the depressing comments made by the Bank:

“Bank staff now expect UK GDP to decline by 0.1% in 2022 Q4, 0.2 percentage points stronger than expected in the November Report. Household consumption remains weak and most housing market indicators have continued to soften. Surveys of investment intentions have also weakened further”; and “The labour market remains tight and there has been evidence of inflationary pressures in domestic prices and wages that could indicate greater persistence and thus justifies a further forceful monetary policy response…..The majority of the Committee judges that, should the economy evolve broadly in line with the November Monetary Policy Report projections, further increases in Bank Rate may be required for a sustainable return of inflation to target”. In other words, more interest rate rises are likely to follow.

With major strikes by train staff, NHS staff and postal workers, you can see why there is gloom in the market. Are the strikes justified? My personal view is that NHS nurses deserve some increase to reverse the erosion of their real pay over the last ten years and to make the job more attractive. I visited my renal consultant on Monday and she was not happy to be providing cover for striking nurses in the next few days. But will I need to cross a picket line for my next appointment? It’s almost 50 years since I had to last do that when HM Customs & Excise staff were on strike but it was all very civilised in reality.

As regards train staff I am not convinced that they are justified in disrupting another essential service for a pay rise and for their demands over working practices. They are already highly paid in comparison with other workers and they should not be trying to dictate how management run the operations. There are also suspicions of a political undertone to their actions.

I issued a tweet saying the strikers should be give an ultimatum to work normally or be sacked. Rather surprisingly I got a response from the RMT which said “In your haste to sound draconian you’ve not considered who would staff the railway or train the replacements if you’ve fired them all? Nothing would move for years!!”.

My response was “Well it worked when Ronald Reagan did it for air traffic controllers, did it not?”. This refers to the events in August 1981 in the USA. To quote from Wikipedia: “After PATCO workers’ refusal to return to work [over a pay dispute], the Reagan administration fired the 11,345 striking air traffic controllers who had ignored the order, and banned them from federal service for life. In the wake of the strike and mass firings, the FAA was faced with the difficult task of hiring and training enough controllers to replace those that had been fired. Under normal conditions, it took three years to train new controllers. Until replacements could be trained, the vacant positions were temporarily filled with a mix of non-participating controllers, supervisors, staff personnel, some non-rated personnel, military controllers, and controllers transferred temporarily from other facilities”.

The US airlines continued operations with minimal disruptions and the Reagan move had a significant impact on union activities in other organisations effectively resetting labour relationships in the USA. Strikes fell in subsequent years. From 370 major strikes in 1970 the number fell to 11 in 2010, and it had a positive effect in reducing inflation.

Just as Margaret Thatcher handled the coal miners in the UK, Reagan’s firm resolve on facing up to the unions created a new and better culture.

As regards postal workers the picture is not so clear. The average postman salary in the United Kingdom is £47,500 per year but the average for all postal workers is much less. But there is one thing for certain, Royal Mail Group will be badly hit by the strikes and customers will reduce the number of letters they send even more and switch parcels to another provider. Postal workers are cutting their own throats by continuing strikes. Here also the dispute is not just about pay but also working practices.

This is another essential service which should not be disrupted. Legal notices get delayed, dividend cheques go missing and letters re hospital appointments and medication deliveries are held up.

It’s all gloom on the political and economic fronts at present. But I am getting ready for the xmas holidays by stocking up on books to read. In fact I have already started reading “The Stock Market” by John Littlewood which covers how capitalism has worked in the UK in the last 50 years. Not well in summary is the answer as it has been driven by political dogma from one extreme to another. The author points out the difference from the USA where the major political parties have always supported capitalism rather than socialism.

Other books I have ordered are “Fall” – a biography of arch fraudster Robert Maxwell, “The Anglo-Saxons: A History of the Beginnings of England”, “Power Failure: The Rise and Fall of General Electric”, and “The World: A Family History” by Simon Montefiore. They should occupy me for a few hours!

Roger Lawson (Twitter: https://twitter.com/RogerWLawson   )

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We Are All Doomed…..Maybe, and More Green Washing from Up Global

The media reports on COP27 suggest we are all doomed as it is unlikely that we will keep to the target of 1.5 degrees of global warming. This is an unduly pessimistic outcome. A rise in temperature can actually be beneficial in many parts of the world, if damaging in others.

It is certainly sensible to try and reduce carbon emissions in the long-term but there needs to be a cost/benefit justification and a focus on countries that are the biggest carbon emitters – namely China, India, USA, and Russia. For the UK to aim for net zero makes no economic sense.

Meanwhile the UK Government has committed £11.6 billion to a “climate fund” to support a mix of energy transition, climate financing and forest and nature preservation measures. Some of these may be worthy objects but can the country really afford many billions on such projects when our own population is suffering from shortages of food and heating?

There is also a demand for “reparations” for the damage that has been caused by high carbon emissions that has resulted in floods and droughts. That is debateable to begin with and it ignores the benefits brought to the world by the cheap energy available from oil and gas. That has increased food production and enabled the world population to increase to a level that would otherwise have starved. See the book “How the World Really Works” by Prof. Vaclav Smil for the evidence on this subject. Reparations should certainly therefore be rejected.

I am certainly not supportive of the Just Stop Oil campaigners who are simply irrational and I will continue to invest in oil/gas companies but not in coal mining companies while I have been investing in alternative energy funds. Burning coal is a bad option in comparison with generating electricity from wind farms, hydro-electric schemes, solar arrays and other projects.

But we do need to reduce the world’s population if we are to improve the environment which is an objective most of the climate campaigners simply ignore.

Companies are of course jumping on the bandwagon of “green-washing” by issuing policy statements that support ESG policies. The latest example in my stock market portfolio is from Up Global Sourcing (UPGS) who announced today their ESG strategy. This includes a commitment to net zero Scope 1 and 2 and emissions by 2040 and net zero Scope 3 emissions by 2050. Other commitments are:

  • 50% less plastic packaging by 2025 (compared to a 2019 baseline), with the remaining plastic packaging to contain an average of 30% recycled content and be 100% recyclable or reusable.
  • Gender balance in leadership roles by 2030.
  • 40% of Board representation to be female by 2025.
  • 20% of UK workforce to be made up of ethnic minorities by 2030.
  • 60% of UK workforce to be recruited from the local community by 2030, versus 47.2% % today.

Simon Showman, Chief Executive of the company commented: “Striving to do the right thing has always been core to everything that Ultimate Products does”. Surely we can do without such platitudes. As regards the stated objectives it’s worth bearing in mind that the directors making such commitments will likely be long gone by the dates promised. Am I a cynic or just a realist?

Meanwhile the company is part of the global economy with production of the products it sells in the Far East (87% from China) and being shipped thousands of miles via polluting ocean-going vessels burning oil.

If that makes economic sense then I am happy for them to carry on but we could do without the “holier than thou” commitments.

Roger Lawson (Twitter: https://twitter.com/RogerWLawson  )

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The Economy, Politics and Financial Fraud

With not a lot happening in my stock market portfolio today, I have some time to comment on wider issues. With the USA Federal Reserve raising interest rates and the Bank of England doing likewise, there is clearly a commitment to tackle inflation aggressively. This will undoubtedly put a damper on the economy in due course and lead to a recession in the UK as has been widely forecast anyway.

Is raising interest rates wise at this time? I think it is because the era of cheap money (i.e. when it was possible to borrow money at less than the rate of inflation) should never have been permitted.

We still have very low unemployment rates from a historic perspective while the Government is still handing out money in the form of energy support cash which it has to borrow to fund. The Government also remains committed to the “triple-lock” on state pensions to protect the elderly such as me which I find simply unjustifiable when the rest of the population have no such protection from a rising cost of living.  

The concept of a “balanced budget” where taxation matches Government expenditure has been forgotten and the excuse of keeping the economy afloat in the face of the Covid epidemic has been used to justify excessive spending.

Meanwhile the cost of asylum seekers and illegal immigrants is enormous with as many as 1 million illegal immigrants in the UK. Nearly £1.3 billion per year is now being spent housing asylum seekers, with costs likely increasing as dinghy arrivals rocketed over the summer

The rise in small boat crossings in the English Channel is driving the migration figures with at least 40,000 arriving that way in the current year and claiming asylum. A large proportion are young men from Albania who are economic migrants. See this BBC analysis for the data: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/explainers-53734793

The Government seems incapable of stopping this “invasion” as the Home Secretary recently called it despite the UK having historically a strong navy. In reality the UK navy has spent billions of pounds on large aircraft carriers (£7.6 billion for two) which are white elephants in modern warfare while it has insufficient border patrol vessels or is unable to use them effectively.

Other parts of the UK economy are in a parlous state with the transport network being horribly congested while as much as £45 billion is being spent on Phase 1 of HS2 alone – another expensive white elephant. At the same time terrorist organisations aiming to achieve their objectives by undemocratic means such as “Just Stop Oil” are allowed to disrupt the transport network and divert police operations at enormous cost.

The NHS is at breaking point with costs rising but simply having enough staff, hospital beds and ambulances seems to be incapable of being provided.

The level of fraud and crime in general is rising and it’s worth reading the recent report of the Parliament Justice Committee on fraud in the UK. Here are some brief extracts:

“Justice response inadequate to meet scale of fraud epidemic. Prioritising traditional forms of crime has left the justice system ill-equipped to deal with continuing rise in fraud, the Justice Committee has found.  

The Committee finds that the level of focus from policing is inadequate to deal with the scale, complexity and evolving nature of fraud. Only 2% of police funding is dedicated to combatting fraud despite it accounting for 40% of reported crime. Lines of accountability are confused with responsibility split between local and national forces. Action Fraud has proven itself unfit for purpose and while a replacement reporting system is expected in 2024, victims should not have to wait this long to see improvements in the service they receive.  

In addition to a lack of investigation of fraud crimes, there is also a lack of prosecution. The ONS estimates that there are an estimated 4.6 million fraud offences each year, but in the year ending September 2021 just 7,609 defendants were prosecuted for fraud and forgery as the principal offence by the CPS.  

Chair of the Justice Committee, Sir Bob Neill MP said:

Fraud currently accounts for 40% of crime and the figure is growing. People are losing their life savings and suffering lasting emotional and psychological harm. But the level of concern from law enforcement falls short of what is required.

We need the criminal justice system to have the resources and focus to be able to adapt to new technologies and emerging trends. The current sense of inertia cannot continue, we need meaningful action now.”

There is currently an epidemic of fraud in England and Wales. The number of cases has grown steadily over the past decade and accelerated rapidly to unprecedented levels during the pandemic. This trend has shown no sign of abating as the country returns to normal life. Around 875,000 cases are reported each year, however the Office for National Statistics has estimated that the real number could be as high as 4.6 million. 40% of recorded crime is now fraud and is calculated to cost society £4.7 billion a year”.   

It’s altogether a quite depressing picture of the UK economy, and of our legal and democratic systems that seem unable to respond to these problems in any reasonable timescale. Meanwhile UK politicians seem happy to focus on trivia such as woke issues.

Even the weather has turned bleak and life is thoroughly downbeat.

Roger Lawson (Twitter: https://twitter.com/RogerWLawson  )

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Financial Stability with Sunak?

It looks like Rishi Sunak has a good chance of becoming Prime Minister after Boris Johnson withdrew his challenge with a judicious and well phrased statement. I welcome Sunak who I always thought was the best candidate and his financial background should at least mean that he understands how to manage the economy and stabilise markets – the same cannot be said for Penny Mordaunt.

Liz Truss and her Chancellor did not seem to comprehend that the UK cannot plough ahead with massive tax cuts and increases in Government borrowing without considering the international reaction from the IMF and those who would need to finance the borrowing.

Neither they nor the advisors in the Treasury and the Bank of England seem to have learned from history. Back in 1974 after a boom generated by Barber the Conservatives lost an election to Labour but by 1976 Harold Wilson had resigned and James Callaghan faced a run on the pound, The UK Government had to go to the IMF for a massive loan obtained with promises of budget cuts.

The moral is that the UK cannot make financial decisions about the economy and Government debt without taking into account the reaction of lenders. The Prime Minister and Chancellor might have thought they were masters of their own destiny but they were grossly mistaken about the real world we now live in.

Barber’s tax-cutting boom also generated high inflation so you can understand why the international financial community ran scared in the face of another similar result. That raised the spectre of falling gilt prices and higher gilt yields thus destabilising both gilt and equity markets. Pension funds were badly affected because of the LDI investment strategies used by pension funds which caused them to dump property funds.

Liz Truss does not seem to have realised that the UK is a small player in international financial markets. The UK cannot act regardless of the opinion of others however attractive it might be to play to the home crowd by pushing for a “growth” policy.

Perhaps she was badly advised by those too young to remember past events in history. But Rishi Sunak had a different plan which we will no doubt now fall back on.

Some people have called for a general election at this point in time but the last thing we need is several months of political knock-about theatre. That would not inspire international confidence. Sunak should help to stablise markets even if he has some tough problems to cope with such as the ongoing energy crisis, war in Ukraine and high inflation. But my view is that a Sunak premiership should be good for the UK stock market.

Roger Lawson (Twitter: https://twitter.com/RogerWLawson  )

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Financial Stability It Ain’t

With the appointment of Jeremy Hunt as Chancellor, we have now had four different Chancellors in a matter of a few months. What will overseas investors who dominate the markets make of this?

It will surely not instil confidence in the stability of the UK and its financial management. Liz Truss has not helped by apparently backing tax cuts and then now back-tracking on those commitments. Corporation tax will now rise as originally planned making the UK a less attractive place to invest. The Truss “high growth” strategy is floundering.

The gilt market is gyrating as the Bank of England planned to halt further QE and then changed its mind to stabilise the market while the FCA has allowed pension funds to pursue risky investment strategies which led them into panic selling of property funds and other assets.

Let us hope Mr Hunt can halt this merry-go-round. But what future is there for Ms Truss as Prime Minister? Not a long one in my view. She has not demonstrated confident leadership and her public statements have been quite dire. In a few months I think she will be gone.

I have decided to join the Conservative Party so I might get some say in who will lead the Party in future. I have supported the Party in the past – for example I helped Boris Johnson become Mayor of London although that turned out to be a questionable decision after London became the cycling capital of the world and the road network was severely damaged. But I never joined as a Member.

Roger Lawson (Twitter: https://twitter.com/RogerWLawson  )

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