Inflation Not Under Control

Back in March I said: “As I suggested in my comments on the budget, the probability of inflation falling to 2.9% by the end of the year is a grossly optimistic forecast”. And so it has turned out to be. Instead of inflation falling below its 2 per cent target within a year, which the Bank of England had forecast, the Bank now thinks it will only hit the goal in 2025. So Bank Rate has been raised again to 4.5%.

It really brings into question the competence of Andrew Bailey and Bank of England forecasters when an amateur financial commentator like me can be more accurate.

Inflation is always very sticky. When people see prices rising they adjust the prices they expect to pay and the wages they demand. And companies pay little attention to the exhortations of politicians.

Roger Lawson (Twitter: https://twitter.com/RogerWLawson  )

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Politics and Technology Problems

It’s been a while since I wrote a blog post. Too busy sorting out some technical problems and keeping up with medical issues – I just booked my seventh Covid vaccination which does not scare me. But I would like to comment on some topical issues.

Should Dominic Raab have been fired, or encouraged to resign, which is the same thing in reality? There is one simple question to answer which is “would you like to work for him as a boss?”. My answer would be an undoubted “no”.

Leaders who wish to get things done need to be popular to some extent at least if they wish to have people work hard and follow the policies laid down. You certainly can’t get people to do what you want by bullying them.

Raab was apparently warned several times about his behaviour so the final outcome was hardly unexpected. In any organisation, and Government is no different, you have to have consensus and leadership by example. If Raab could not get Civil Service staff to do what he wanted then he needed to change his approach.

My first technical problem was that BT and Microsoft decided to stop supporting POP email clients, for alleged security reasons after 20 years. That meant potentially losing access to thousands of older emails I have received over the last 15 years. No workarounds provided unless I paid them money. I am very unhappy about being treated in this way and Outlook on the web is not nearly as good as Outlook 2016 as a local client.

My latest technical problem was configuring and learning how to use a new Samsung smartwatch (a Galaxy 4). This is replacing an older Huawei smartwatch which did basic functions very well but was not really compatible with the Apple i-Phone I currently use. I don’t like Apple watches – too expensive and I prefer a more traditional design. The Galaxy watch is also incompatible but you have to read the very small print on their web site to discover that. You even need a Samsung phone to set it up which is ridiculous. The user interface is horribly complex and it’s taken me hours to learn all the functions and configure it. Watches should be installable in a few minutes, not hours, and all common phones should be supported.

That’s the rant over for today.

I was alerted by the new emergency phone alarm just now. I presume that’s in case Russia launches World War 3, and we get 3 minutes warning of a nuclear attack. Reminds me of the 1960s but most people decided then that there was not much to do in 3 minutes except hide under a table.

Meanwhile Sadiq Khan is pushing ahead with the ULEZ expansion despite widespread public opposition. Financially it makes no sense and it will make no difference to air quality in the outer London boroughs. There will be a legal challenge in the High Court in July but I am not very hopeful of a successful outcome. But it’s worth supporting anyway.

The only way you can remove idiots like Sadiq Kahn is at the ballot box.

Roger Lawson

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The Death of Lord Lawson

The media is awash with tributes on the death of Nigel Lawson. A tax cutting chancellor who reinvigorated the UK economy and was a bulwark of Thatcherism. He denationalised whole swathes of UK industry and was subsequently active in support of Britain leaving the EU. He also served as chairman of the Global Warming Policy Foundation think tank which opposed some of the extreme environmental measures now being pushed through by a Conservative Government.  

He also said about traffic conditions in London that changes have done more damage, and is doing more damage, to London than almost anything since the Blitz. He was referring to the “Mayor’s addiction to cycling” and the introduction of the Cycle Superhighways by Boris Johnson and Transport for London.

In summary a highly intelligent and influential politician.

Note: I am no relation to him but people regularly call me Nigel when they can’t recall my first name. Hopefully that will be less frequent in future.

Roger Lawson (Twitter: https://twitter.com/RogerWLawson )

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Bank Interest Rate Raised, the Prime Minister’s Tax Return and Credit Suisse Bond Wipe Out

The Bank of England has raised bank rate to 4.25% which will create howls of anguish among mortgage holders. The US Federal Reserve also raised its rate. But with UK inflation still above 10% p.a. it is quite justified in my view. We do need to get back to reality with real interest rates, i.e. they should be at or above the rate of retail price inflation. At least PM Rishi Sunak has made it his top priority to clamp down on inflation. Let us hope he sticks to it.

High interest rates will certainly put a damper on stock market investment but the short-term pain is worth it. As I suggested in my comments on the budget, the probability of inflation falling to 2.9% by the end of the year is a grossly optimistic forecast.

We also now have sight of Rishi Sunak’s last tax return. The prime minister paid £325,826 in capital gains tax and £120,604 in UK income tax in the last tax year. Good for him is all I can say. He clearly has a lot of investment holdings but might have done better with his tax planning. However he has contributed to the UK exchequer so we should not complain. But the politics of envy always rule in such circumstances.

The key point to remember is that someone from a modest background can become both Prime Minister and wealthy in the UK – it’s clearly the land of opportunity! Note: you don’t need to tell me how he acquired his wealth, but it was legally I believe.

Another disaffected group are those who held the Credit Suisse AT1 bonds who have been wiped out by the terms of the rescue by UBS. Investors are complaining that ordinary shareholders should have been wiped out first in priority as is normally the case. But these bonds have rather specific terms and were acquired by sophisticated institutions. They should have read the small print, as always when investing in bonds.

Roger Lawson (Twitter: https://twitter.com/RogerWLawson )You can “follow” this blog by entering your email address below. You will then receive an email alerting you to new posts as they are added

The Budget – Not Much in it for Investors

Jeremy Hunt’s first budget was a sober affair. No fireworks and little rhetoric which is as it should be. There was very little in it for private investors unless you have children or are still putting money into a pension.

The main points to note are that while tax allowances are still frozen, the £1.07 million pension cap is being dropped and the yearly allowance increased to £60,000. These should help highly paid folks such as medical consultants. The ISA allowance will remain at £20,000 for another year.

Fuel duty will remain frozen and the energy price cap will be extended for another 3 months.

Inflation is forecast to fall to 2.9% by the end of 2023 and we will avoid a recession this year after all. This should boost the stock market but hasn’t so far. Perhaps like me investors don’t believe that inflation will fall that rapidly because once it is entrenched and employees demand more in a spiral then it is difficult to stop.

As with all budgets there is lots of tinkering with grants for this that and the other where the Chancellor claims to be responding to public needs but it’s all virtue signalling and mainly a waste of time. For example £200 million to fix pot holes – the Chancellor clearly has no idea how much they cost to repair and the size of the backlog!

At least that’s my view.

Roger Lawson (Twitter: https://twitter.com/RogerWLawson )

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DotDigital Webinar, Wandisco Announcement and Immigration Laws

I watched the DotDigital (DOTD) interim results presentation on the Investor Meets Company platform this morning. I have held the shares for a number of years and have been happy with the company’s progress in general.

For the half year revenue was up 9%, with 95% being recurring. Adjusted EBITDA was slightly down but cash balance was up 24%. What are they going to do with the cash? They are looking at M&A activity.

There was a good competitive review. It is clear that the market for similar products is now quite mature so poaching from other suppliers is the name of the game and more consolidation among suppliers is likely. Their US market position is still unclear although they report “early evidence of success in the USA” after management changes and rebuilding the sales team.

It seems likely that steady growth should be achievable from more geographic expansion, more partnerships and the addition of more product features regardless of US success.

Another technology company that made a devastating announcement this morning was Wandisco (WAND). They said “The Board now expects that anticipated FY22 revenue could be as low as USD 9 million and not USD 24 million as previously reported. In addition, the Company has no confidence in its announced FY22 bookings expectations”. They blame one senior sales employee for “significant, sophisticated and potentially fraudulent irregularities with regard to received purchase orders and related revenue and bookings”. The shares have been suspended

I have looked at this share a number of times as I have a historic interest in database replication, but never acquired the shares. I can understand the need for what they sell but the accounts always looked dubious to me. Revenue very volatile and profits non-existent. I prefer to invest in relatively boring companies like DOTD with large recurring revenue based on a different business model.

On the political front an enormous amount of media coverage is on the small boat crisis and the attempts by the Government to halt illegal immigrants. These are mostly economic migrants, not people fleeing war or other disasters.

It is suggested that the proposed Government legislation would be illegal, because it contravenes the European Convention on Human Rights and the Refugee Convention. The latter was established in 1951 to help people made homeless or stateless by the Second World War and was a very positive move at the time. But it was never intended to enhance the rights of economic migrants who wish to move to a wealthier country.

I suggest that a breach of a Convention is not necessarily illegal and that the UK can withdraw from Conventions whenever it considers it necessary to do so. The country is being swamped by migrants, both legal and illegal ones.  This is putting enormous pressure on housing and social services.

For example the London Borough of Lewisham have recently published a new “Local Plan” and it reports these statistics: The population has grown by 23% over the last 20 years and is still growing rapidly. Some 46% of the residents identify as BAME heritage which rises to 76% for the school population. This shows the impact of uncontrolled immigration over the last 50 years, but the Council is still “planning for an open Lewisham”. That’s undefined but suggests that they are open to even more migration.

The BBC, as is now commonplace, spouts the views of left-wing commentators including that of a well-known footballer for no good reason. His views on football may be sound but he does not understand the problem of illegal immigrants.

Will the Government be able to halt the flow of illegal immigrants? Only if they take a very tough stance in my view.

Roger Lawson (Twitter: https://twitter.com/RogerWLawson )

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A New National Purpose?

The Tony Blair Institute for Global Change has published a report, jointly authored by Tony Blair, William Hague et al, which has received wide media coverage. It recommends a “radical new policy agenda” that will transcend the current fray of political ideology.

It’s worth reading (see link below) and I will pick out some of the important points in it:

It recommends “building foundational AI-era infrastructure”. This should include: 1) Government-led development of sovereign general-purpose AI systems, enabled by the required supercomputing capabilities, to underpin broad swaths of public-service delivery; 2) A national health infrastructure that brings together interoperable data platforms into a world-leading system that is able to bring down ever-increasing costs through operational efficiencies; 3) A secure, privacy-preserving digital ID for citizens that allows them to quickly interact with government services, while also providing the state with the ability to better target support.

To encourage investment in “growth equity” it suggests encouragement of pension scheme consolidation by limiting capital gains tax exemption to funds with over £20 billion under management (it argues that there are too many small schemes).

It suggests Increasing public research and development (R&D) investment to make the UK a leader among comparable nations within five years, coupled with reforms to the way our institutions of science, research and innovation are funded and regulated to give more freedom and better incentives. Investing in new models of organising science and technology research, including greatly expanding the Advanced Research and Invention Agency (ARIA), and creating innovative laboratories that seed new industries by working at the intersection of cutting-edge science and engineering.

Comments:

The proposals for a “national health infrastructure” seems to be reviving the old concept of a single monolithic patient record system which was abandoned after unsuccessful implementation and the waste of many billions of pounds. Trusts and hospitals now have disparate systems but interoperability is the key while the Government is funding “digital transformation” and having some impact on improving systems. We don’t need a new “big bang” approach with the enormous costs incurred with chosen consultancy firms.

The report appears to suggest that technology can solve all the problems in the NHS by improving productivity. But this is nonsense. Management is the problem, not lack of technology.

The report has a touching faith in the possible impact of AI. So it says: “As a general-purpose technology, AI has the potential to make an unprecedented impact that will exceed those of the steam engine and electricity combined during the industrial revolutions. These previous revolutions focused on the harnessing of energy to mechanise physical labour, but our current revolution is the first in history to automate cognition itself”.

AI is improving but it so far has limited applications. The fact that products such as ChatGPT can help students to write essays (albeit with frequent factual errors) by completing sentences based on internet word frequencies does not herald a revolution in productivity.

The report strongly promotes digital identities. So it says: “Today, many of us can set up a bank account in minutes and pay for shopping at the tap of a watch or phone. For the generation now entering middle age, this level of digital simplicity and streamlining is expected as a default while those in their 20s have grown up in an entirely digital age. Despite this, government records are still based in a different era. The debate over digital IDs has raged in the UK for decades. In a world in which everything from vaccine status to aeroplane tickets and banking details are available on our personal devices, it is illogical that the same is not true of our individual public records”.

I personally would welcome a digital ID. At present I have over 500 separate log-ins for different organisations which I have to record and manage with some help from technology. But I still occasionally have to prove who I am by submitting copies of a passport or driving licence and proof of residence by a copy of a utility bill. This is archaic nonsense when companies such as Experian or GB Group can already verify my identity from their records.

But the NHS and Government bodies like HMRC have separate systems which still require separate log-ins. The report suggests personal data should be shareable between organisations but that should only be permitted for digital IDs when a user permits it.

The report says: “Governments are the original issuers and source of truth for most identity documents, from birth certificates to passports. Rather than creating a marketplace of private-sector providers to manage the government-issued identity credentials of citizens, the government should provide a secure, private, decentralised digital-ID system for the benefit of both citizens and businesses. A well-designed, decentralised digital-ID system would allow citizens to prove not only who they are, but also their right to live and work in the UK, their age and ownership of a driving licence. It could also accommodate credentials issued by other authorities, such as educational or vocational qualifications. This would make it cheaper, easier and more secure to access a range of goods and services, online and in person. A digital ID could help the government to understand users’ needs and preferences better, improving the design of public services. It would make it simpler and easier to access benefits, reducing the number of people who are missing out on support they are entitled to. It could even help the government move to a more proactive model, meeting people’s needs before they apply for a service, tailoring the services and support they are offered to their individual circumstances and reducing administrative burdens on both individuals and the public sector”.

Some of that goes far beyond what is necessary or wise. But giving everyone a digital ID from birth is surely a good idea. Almost everyone already has a National Insurance Number so this is not a new concept but it needs extending to provide digital ID verification. Other countries such as Finland and Ukraine are ahead of the UK already in this regard.

The report has some interesting things to say about the lack of investment in the UK. For example: “Despite startup financing being the focus of several government reviews and new funds, the UK has continually struggled to deliver a sufficient scale and volume of patient and growth capital to the country’s startup companies. The UK’s DB pensions industry is fragmented, with over 5,300 schemes with an average size of £330 million. Their investment strategies, driven by risk-averse corporate sponsors and finite investment horizons, have typically pursued a zero-risk approach. According to Michael Tory, co-founder of the advisory firm Ondra Partners, the UK is one of the only major economies where domestic pension funds have in effect abandoned investment in UK companies. The proportion of UK pension funds invested in bonds increased from less than 20 per cent in 2000 to 72 per cent in 2021, even as their investments in UK equities dropped from 50 per cent of their asset allocation in 2000 to just 4 per cent in 2021”.

This is certainly an area that the Government should look at. Effectively pension funds have become risk averse due to the imposition of regulations that require limitation of risk.

In conclusion the report suggests that technology can solve many of the UK’s economic and social problems. It is way too optimistic in that regard but it does contain a large number of suggestions for where improvements could be made.

Full Report: https://institute.global/policy/new-national-purpose-innovation-can-power-future-britain

Roger Lawson (Twitter: https://twitter.com/RogerWLawson )

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It’s All Good News Today

With my stock market portfolio picking up in value, the even better news was that Nicola Sturgeon is resigning as First Minister of Scotland. I don’t often comment on politics but Ms Sturgeon was a very divisive leader who chose to push for Scottish Independence in the face of any rational analysis of what might happen to Scotland economically if that was achieved. Even after she lost the referendum vote on it she persisted in pushing for it. She also managed to mismanage the Scottish NHS and more recently fell over backwards over what is a woman.

Whenever she spoke on television I was revolted by her ignorance of the outcome of the policies she was pursuing. Like Sadiq Khan in London, she blamed all her problems on central Government when they were of her own making.

Other good news is that inflation has fallen slightly to 10.1% and the sun is coming out. Crocuses are flowering in our garden and spring is on its way.

In addition I had a phone call from Computershare about my problem with Diploma dividend payments (see previous blog post) and it seems they are going to waive the claimed administration fee. It always pays to complain!

What cheered me up also was reading about the problems of Rolls-Royce (RR.) in Investors Chronicle. The article headlined “Is Rolls-Royce in decline?” and covered recent comments by the new CEO such as “Every investment we make, we destroy value”, “We underperform every key competitor out there…” and “This is out last chance. We have a burning platform… it cannot continue”. What a way to demotivate staff or put a rocket under their backsides.

I worked very briefly for Rolls-Royce 50 years ago and did hold the shares a few years back – sold at 300p in 2015 when they are now 108p. So I missed that falling knife. I sold way before the pandemic hit airline travel and sales of jet engines because I came to the conclusion that their accounting was way too optimistic.

Incidentally I am currently reading a book entitled “Power Failure” on the rise and fall of General Electric who are of course one of the competitors for Rolls-Royce in the aero engine market. I may write a review of the book at a later date. It’s only 800 pages long. Oh so I hate these lengthy tomes when the authors could have communicated their message in so many fewer words.   

Roger Lawson (Twitter: https://twitter.com/RogerWLawson )

2022 Was Not So Bad

In a previous blog post I mentioned the book “The Stock Market” by John Littlewood after reading the first few chapters that covered the years 1945-1960. I have now finished the rest of the book which covers the years 1961 to 1990.

If you think the 1950s were bad for stock market investors, then the 1970s were even worse. Shares lost roughly a third of their value in 1973. In January 1974 the Arab countries announced that oil prices were to be doubled for the second time. Meanwhile the miners went on strike and a “hung” Parliament with no overall control was the result of a general election. Dennis Healey increased both personal and business taxes with the top rate of income tax being set at 83%, or 98% on investment income. The Government tried to impose price controls but that did not stop rising inflation which was over 16% in mid-1974.

To quote Mr Littlewood: “The experience of 1974 is visited on investors perhaps only once in a lifetime, but, when it happens, it leaves behind deep scars that last for many years. Many private investors abandoned the stock market for good”.

The market did recover in the 1970s although in 1979 Russia invaded Afghanistan without warning and there were wars in the Middle East which disturbed markets. There was a long bull market until the crash in October 1987 at the same time as the great storm in southern England. Over two days the UK All Share Index fell by 20%. There were similar falls in other international markets.

The UK was dogged by strikes in the 1970s with businesses often becoming uncompetitive in comparison with other industrialised countries. Nothing much changed until Margaret Thatcher became Prime Minister in 1979. Thereafter she stood up to the miners, changed strike legislation and embarked on a period of privatisation (or de-nationalisation as it could be otherwise called) plus adopted a sound money policy.

The 1970s show strong parallels with the last two years. Rising inflation worldwide due to lax policies on money supply (called QE recently) and wars affecting the supply of basic commodities such as food and oil/gas.

This is what Mr Littlewood had to say about Mrs Thatcher and her policies: “Margaret Thatcher led from the front on privatisation. For the Labour party and the trade unions, she was plunging a knife into the heart of deeply held beliefs. Many in her own party would have left well alone, and many in the City were unable to comprehend the scale of her ambition or recognise the confidence she was placing in the capitalist system, but her analysis was impeccable.

In State-owned businesses, the discipline of the threat of bankruptcy is absent. The threat of takeover is also removed, and there are none of the sanctions of reporting to shareholders or being judged on performance by fund managers and investment analysts. Capital requests for investment are judged more by the political whims of government expenditure targets than by an objective assessment of the merits of the project. In Britain, the nationalised industries had become sheltered havens for the producers and the unions at the expense of customers. It was not until some years after the completion of privatisation, that the extent of over-manning and over-charging became apparent as, at one and the same time, prices fell in real terms and profits rose”.

This is a very good summary of the ills of the UK in the post-war years some of which can still be seen in some sectors of the economy such as the railways and the NHS.

On a personal note, the Lawson household has been disrupted since xmas by medical problems. Both younger grandsons got infections and daughter-in-law ended up in hospital for a few days – after waiting for a vacant bed for more than 24-hours.

The NHS is a nationalised industry that demonstrates all the ills mentioned above. More money gets ploughed into it with little obvious impact while the service level declines. In my opinion it needs to be privatised (and I am a big personal user of it so have seen it first-hand).

To conclude, Mr Littlewood’s book is a great analysis of the economic and political factors that drove the stock market in the years covered. It explains in detail the market changes such as the impact of  “Big Bang” and how investors were affected.

You will realise after reading the book that the 2020s have been a relatively benign period in comparison with the last century and that all stock markets are in essence highly volatile even if equities are still a better long-term bet than bonds. It should be essential reading for all investment managers and politicians.

Roger Lawson (Twitter: https://twitter.com/RogerWLawson )

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Interest Rate Rise, Strikes and Xmas Reading

I am still hoping for a Santa rally in share prices but they are certainly not happening today. The Bank of England raising interest rates by 0.5% to 3.5% has surely had a negative impact. These are some of the depressing comments made by the Bank:

“Bank staff now expect UK GDP to decline by 0.1% in 2022 Q4, 0.2 percentage points stronger than expected in the November Report. Household consumption remains weak and most housing market indicators have continued to soften. Surveys of investment intentions have also weakened further”; and “The labour market remains tight and there has been evidence of inflationary pressures in domestic prices and wages that could indicate greater persistence and thus justifies a further forceful monetary policy response…..The majority of the Committee judges that, should the economy evolve broadly in line with the November Monetary Policy Report projections, further increases in Bank Rate may be required for a sustainable return of inflation to target”. In other words, more interest rate rises are likely to follow.

With major strikes by train staff, NHS staff and postal workers, you can see why there is gloom in the market. Are the strikes justified? My personal view is that NHS nurses deserve some increase to reverse the erosion of their real pay over the last ten years and to make the job more attractive. I visited my renal consultant on Monday and she was not happy to be providing cover for striking nurses in the next few days. But will I need to cross a picket line for my next appointment? It’s almost 50 years since I had to last do that when HM Customs & Excise staff were on strike but it was all very civilised in reality.

As regards train staff I am not convinced that they are justified in disrupting another essential service for a pay rise and for their demands over working practices. They are already highly paid in comparison with other workers and they should not be trying to dictate how management run the operations. There are also suspicions of a political undertone to their actions.

I issued a tweet saying the strikers should be give an ultimatum to work normally or be sacked. Rather surprisingly I got a response from the RMT which said “In your haste to sound draconian you’ve not considered who would staff the railway or train the replacements if you’ve fired them all? Nothing would move for years!!”.

My response was “Well it worked when Ronald Reagan did it for air traffic controllers, did it not?”. This refers to the events in August 1981 in the USA. To quote from Wikipedia: “After PATCO workers’ refusal to return to work [over a pay dispute], the Reagan administration fired the 11,345 striking air traffic controllers who had ignored the order, and banned them from federal service for life. In the wake of the strike and mass firings, the FAA was faced with the difficult task of hiring and training enough controllers to replace those that had been fired. Under normal conditions, it took three years to train new controllers. Until replacements could be trained, the vacant positions were temporarily filled with a mix of non-participating controllers, supervisors, staff personnel, some non-rated personnel, military controllers, and controllers transferred temporarily from other facilities”.

The US airlines continued operations with minimal disruptions and the Reagan move had a significant impact on union activities in other organisations effectively resetting labour relationships in the USA. Strikes fell in subsequent years. From 370 major strikes in 1970 the number fell to 11 in 2010, and it had a positive effect in reducing inflation.

Just as Margaret Thatcher handled the coal miners in the UK, Reagan’s firm resolve on facing up to the unions created a new and better culture.

As regards postal workers the picture is not so clear. The average postman salary in the United Kingdom is £47,500 per year but the average for all postal workers is much less. But there is one thing for certain, Royal Mail Group will be badly hit by the strikes and customers will reduce the number of letters they send even more and switch parcels to another provider. Postal workers are cutting their own throats by continuing strikes. Here also the dispute is not just about pay but also working practices.

This is another essential service which should not be disrupted. Legal notices get delayed, dividend cheques go missing and letters re hospital appointments and medication deliveries are held up.

It’s all gloom on the political and economic fronts at present. But I am getting ready for the xmas holidays by stocking up on books to read. In fact I have already started reading “The Stock Market” by John Littlewood which covers how capitalism has worked in the UK in the last 50 years. Not well in summary is the answer as it has been driven by political dogma from one extreme to another. The author points out the difference from the USA where the major political parties have always supported capitalism rather than socialism.

Other books I have ordered are “Fall” – a biography of arch fraudster Robert Maxwell, “The Anglo-Saxons: A History of the Beginnings of England”, “Power Failure: The Rise and Fall of General Electric”, and “The World: A Family History” by Simon Montefiore. They should occupy me for a few hours!

Roger Lawson (Twitter: https://twitter.com/RogerWLawson   )

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