Category: Politics

How to Control the Book Mountain

 There was an interesting article in the FT yesterday by Nilanjana Roy on “To Keep, or not to keep books…….”.  The author says her and her husband “have a modest collection of 4,000 books” and “Every reader knows the moment when the paths of destiny fork. You must either become a Chucker, steel your nerves and give away old books before they march into the linen cupboards and storm the sofas, the dining table, the guest room, or become a Keeper, accept defeat and move to a larger home, just to accommodate the relentless tide of a personal library gone rogue”. This writer only has about 700 physical books spread around our house.

One problem is finding a book when I want to read it again but I solved that a long time ago by maintaining a spreadsheet of book titles and authors under 30 categories which also records where the books are located. As some of the books were purchased more than 50 years ago and my memory is getting worse, I can re-read some of them as if they were relatively new. The categories I use are:

Architecture
Automobilia & Transport
Biography
Business
Comedy
Computing & IT
Construction/Diy
Cookery (Food and Drink)
Design & Graphic Arts
Fiction (relatively few books in this category!)
Games & Pastimes
Gardening
Geographic & Maps/Guides
History
Investment
Legal
Literary/Drama
Medical/Vetinary/Physchology
Miscellaneous
Photography
Reference
Religious
Science & Technology
Travel

I also adopted a rule a few years ago to only keep the better books that might be worth re-reading and as there is no more room for additional paper books I can only keep a new one if another is thrown out.

It’s also now possible of course to buy and keep books in digital form so I have a Kindle account and use that for some books such as the one I am currently reading – “Money: A Story of Humanity” by David McWilliams. I only wrote a brief review of it on this blog but it is definitely one I shall be keeping in one form or another. The author shows how economic policy and money creation and management have driven all the main historical events in the last few thousand years. It reveals a lot of history that few people will be familiar with. A highly recommended book! I can read such books on a tablet while I am in a kidney dialysis session (4 hours long when I have to avoid much movement – holding and turning paper pages can be tricky but reading on a tablet solves that).

Over the years one interests change of course so some books do get thrown out for that reason and likewise some I inherited from my parents. Even some of the academic books acquired at university are now so out of date that they are not worth keeping. But nostalgia does affect the decisions so you have to be very firm on what to keep and what to throw.

The FT article is here: https://www.ft.com/content/0a761d6d-a428-4cdb-8757-3d0ba2b4deca

Roger Lawson (Twitter: https://twitter.com/RogerWLawson  )

Population Growth – the Real Problem

The Office of National Statistics (ONS) has reported that the UK population grew by 1% to 68.3 million last year. This is the fastest increase since the 1970s and was driven by net inward migration. If this continues we may need to provide for 20 million more houses by the mid 2040s.

This rate of growth puts an intolerable burden on public services such as the NHS which we are already seeing, on congested roads and railways and big demands on new infrastructure such as the electricity grid which we need just to meet demands for more electrification to drive carbon reduction by the Government.

See Telegraph report for more information: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/10/08/migration-drives-fastest-population-increase-since-1970s/ or the ONS report: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationestimates/bulletins/annualmidyearpopulationestimates/latest

I have written several articles in the past on this subject – see for example: https://roliscon.blog/2022/06/29/census-results-a-problem-the-government-is-ignoring/

But the current Government seems to have no clear plan to curb population growth. They may be attacking “illegal migration” but most of the inward migration is people on work visas or family relatives. There are also many “asylum” seekers who are really economic migrants.  There are no clear targets or plans for how to stop the population growth which we desperately need. It’s not just Labour politicians who are ignoring this issue but other party leaders. They are always focused on topical or what they perceive as popular issues such as the cost of living without realising that population growth damages the economy, requires more taxation and affects our standard of living. Migrants cost us a great deal to support and need to be discouraged by making the UK a much less attractive destination.

Robert Jenrick seems to have some useful ideas such as withdrawing from the ECHR to avoid frivolous legal challenges by migrants but there should be no financial support to lawyers to challenge decisions on asylum claims or expulsion decisions. Other European countries are making migration much more difficult and we should do the same.

Roger Lawson (Twitter: https://twitter.com/RogerWLawson  )

Assisted Dying Bill Welcomed 

 Kim Leadbeater MP has announced that she is introducing an Assisted Dying Bill to the House of Commons. If it passes, this Bill would legalise assisted dying for terminally ill, mentally competent adults. The Prime Minister has promised a free vote on the Bill and with the House of Commons now dominated by left-wing MPs it stands a good chance of passing there. The House of Lords may be more problematic, however.

As a long-standing supporter of the euthanasia campaign group Dignity in Dying (see https://www.dignityindying.org.uk/ ) I hope this Bill progresses.

Assisted dying may not need to be invoked in most medical situations but it is very important to some people suffering from excessive pain or disability near the end of life.

The objections to such a Bill are generally misconceived. Similar Bills in other countries who have introduced such legislation have worked well and there are very few abuses.

Please support it!

Roger Lawson (Twitter: https://twitter.com/RogerWLawson  )

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Speeches of Tory Leadership Candidates 

 I just watched the speeches of the 4 remaining Tory leadership candidates given on the final day of the Party conference – which you can see here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=12eFckpBFTU&t=1530s  

Here are some very brief comments on them – in the order they presented:

  • Tom Tugendhat. Generally a rather negative speech.
  • James Cleverly. Apologised for letting the Party down. So also negative.
  • Robert Jenrick. Negative comments about UK history in the 1970s, but otherwise positive.
  • Kemi Badenoch. Noted the decline in steel making in the black country so more negativity.

When will politicians learn that they need to present a positive vision for the future under their leadership by spelling out what they will do to improve matters?

Although all 4 candidates are possible leaders, or they would not have got this far, I rate Robert Jenrick as the best from this performance

Roger Lawson (Twitter: https://twitter.com/RogerWLawson  )

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Alliance Trust GM and Greggs Trading Statement

I was hoping to attend the General Meeting of Alliance Trust (ATST) this morning on-line to approve the merger with Witan but at the time of writing despite having registered for it no invitation has been received. I voted against it of course.

Another company I hold shares in is Greggs (GRG) who issued a Q3 trading statement this morning. It is good news with total sales up 10.6% and LFL sales up 5.0% in company managed shops. They opened 152 new shops and closed 66 with a number of relocations.

This company shows how effective a change of management can be in reviving the fortunes of a business which happened a few years ago. But the share price fell over 5% this morning on negative media comments about slowing sales growth. I will ignore this “noise” and continue to hold the shares.

Paul Scott on Stockopedia reported positively on sampling the products recently. He said “Revenue growth slowed in Q3, but is still good. Maybe that’s to be expected as inflation moderates? Profit expectations are in line for FY 12/2024. Is “in line” good enough when shares are on a punchy 21.6x forward earnings? Lovely company, but shares look fully priced”. See the Small Cap Value Report for more information.

Personally I don’t mind paying a high price for shares in businesses that are well managed and generally meet forecasts.

Yesterday I had a visit from T.M.Akers who repairs antique furniture in London. It’s more than 20 years since I last saw him. Isn’t it annoying when you meet someone who appears not to have aged after 20+ years while I have become quite decrepit!

We have the Conservative Party Conference running at present but it’s not a very exciting affair. This is what John O’Connell, chief executive of the Taxpayers Alliance, hit the nail on the head when he said: “Labour came in promising to step more lightly on people’s lives, but the change they are set to deliver looks likely to be yet another round of spending increases and tax hikes that only further damages household budgets while doing little to reform gravely underperforming public services.”

Where are the positive proposals from the Tory leadership candidates that will capture the public’s imagination?

Roger Lawson (Twitter: https://twitter.com/RogerWLawson  )

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Keir Starmer’s Speech

I watched most of Keir Starmer’s speech to the Labour Party Conference yesterday – generally a quite lacklustre affair with no jokes. It was desperately short of substance on how he was going to fix the UK’s problems such as the underperforming NHS, the shortage of housing, the excessive migration using up resources and other problems.

It gave the distinct impression of having been written by a professional speechwriter who included many feel-good soundbites but ultimately the speech lacked much substance. Home Secretary Yvette Cooper’s speech was very similar – perhaps they use the same speechwriter?

These two ministers are clearly playing the game of promising action but not any that might offend someone.

Meanwhile the Taxpayer’s Alliance have been highlighting the excessive and growing Government debt that we have in the UK – see their comments on Starmer’s speech here: https://www.taxpayersalliance.com/taxpayers_alliance_responds_to_keir_starmer_s_first_speech_at_labour_conference_as_prime_minister

The first sentence says: “Taxpayers will receive little joy from a speech that sounded more like a protracted shopping list for ever more public spending than a platform for genuine change and reform” which is a good summary.

Roger Lawson (Twitter: https://twitter.com/RogerWLawson  )

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Riots and How to Stop Them

This weekend the UK has seen a number of riots – demonstrations that are more or less violent. What are they about? This is a difficult question to answer as the protestors are often claimed to be “far right” who oppose the level of immigration into the country mixed with those concerned about the level of knife crime which resulted in the murder of three young girls last week. Muslims are often seen as to blame for some of the issues.

What has been the Government response to the riots? Getting tough with more prosecutions, more police, more people in prison, stronger laws and more rhetoric seems to be the answer. But I don’t think that will solve the problem. The underlying problem is that many English people do not like the current level of immigration which the Government has done very little to stop. They blame the current ills in society such as high crime rates on too much immigration. The new Labour Government seems unlikely to change matters substantially.

If they want to stop the riots they need to tackle that issue. Too much immigration results in housing shortages and difficulties with other major public services. It also depresses wages due to the influx of unskilled workers.  

What is wrong with having right-wing views? I certainly think people should be economically independent and not rely on the state (and our taxes) for basic living costs. I don’t believe in communism or the watered down version called socialism which destroys individual initiative and hence wealth creation. A capitalist economy, which is what we have, needs to be tempered with compassion for those who are temporarily disabled but people should not be relying on the Government for hand-outs at every opportunity.

Only the Reform Party shows any sign of promoting policies that will tackle the main political issues in an effective way. That is why so many people are frustrated with the Conservative and Labour Governments we have had in the last few years who have simply stoked up frustration. The result has been the riots.

Roger Lawson (Twitter: https://twitter.com/RogerWLawson  )

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Labour Promises and Taxes

Rachel Reeves, Chancellor, has made comments to the effect that the Conservatives concealed the dire state of the economy and hence taxes will need to rise to meet a black hole in her budgets.

Richard Tice, the Reform UK deputy leader, has said it is a ‘con’. The MP for Boston and Skegness said the government knew about the state of the finances during the general election campaign and accused the cabinet office of “flip flopping” on pledges. The numbers were known, the promises were made. Now Labour is doing what Labour does: fiddle the books, flip flop on pledges. Just like Tories.

This is just like any new management when they take over a company -they kitchen sink all the bad news so they can look good in the future.

The new Government wants to spend money on a number of their favourite policies and the only source is by raising taxation. They have two apparent immediate targets: raising capital gains tax rates to be more in line with income tax and raising taxes on pension savings by reducing pension relief. The former might be sound in principle but ignores what the impact will actually be in cash terms. Capital gains tax can be avoided in various ways such as deferring sales. So the net revenue might be much lower than anticipated. Unintended consequences will abound – such as wealthy people departing to countries with lower or nil capital taxes – or reductions in new businesses being formed as entrepreneurs decide it’s better done elsewhere or not at all, reducing the tax base in the long term. This is a typical Labour Party error – sticking to dogma that the wealthy should be soaked regardless of the consequences.

There is also the prospect of removing the relief from capital gains tax on death – effectively increasing inheritance tax. But the response will be an increase in complex tax planning to minimise that.

Let us hope that the Chancellor listens to advice from the Treasury on the likely impact of major changes in taxation before committing to do anything. Continual changes in major taxes just defeat any sensible financial planning by individuals and companies. Stability is what we need, not continual changes, and we certainly don’t need taxes to rise overall. We are already more heavily taxed than at any time since the Second World War and high taxes discourage wealth creation and reduce the tax base.

Roger Lawson (Twitter: https://twitter.com/RogerWLawson  )

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Better Late Than Never – Joe Biden Quits

Joe Biden has announced that he is withdrawing from the race to become the Democrats nominee for the Presidential election. That announcement is somewhat overdue as he is clearly unfit to serve for another four years.

He has just made too many gaffs and is looking increasing frail – in fact worse than me and I am a similar age.

Senior Democrats seem to be backing Kamala Harris, the current Vice-President, to step up to be the Democrats Presidential nominee. But it would surely be better if there was some debate on that.  

Roger Lawson (Twitter: https://twitter.com/RogerWLawson  )

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The King’s Speech

The King’s Speech in Parliament has set out the Governments agenda for the coming year. See link below if you wish to read it. It appears to be mainly harmless but here are a few comments on it:

It says Bills will be brought forward to strengthen audit and corporate governance which is all to the good but we need to see the details of what is anticipated therein.

There will be a new Planning and Infrastructure Bill to reform planning and get Britain building as we desperately need more housing. But will they be able to overcome the nimbys? That remains to be seen.

More powers will be devolved to metro mayors and combined authorities, I hope this does not mean more powers for the Mayor of London who already has too many and acts like a dictator.

A Bill will enable the creation of Great British Energy to promote clean energy and lower energy bills. What hope of that when energy costs are a function of worldwide factors?

There will be a new Border Security Command to tackle organised immigration crime in the hope of reducing illegal immigration. But much of the excessive immigration is actually “legal” at present.

As forecast, the Government intends to remove the exemption from VAT for private school fees.

The remaining railways not already nationalised will be so when current contracts expire by the establishment of Great British Railways. Will the service be improved and prices cut as a result? I doubt it.

No fault evictions will be ended, presumably even when tenants have signed contracts allowing for termination. This is a very dangerous infringement of landlord’s property rights and the details of this legislation will be worth examining in detail. In extremis, it could kill off the private rented sector altogether and reduce housing provision.

The Government is committed to improving the National Health Service, but it does not say how.

Equal pay based on race equality will be subject to public consultation but this will be a nightmare for companies to implement. There are so many different races and shades of colour that legislating for this will be exceedingly difficult.

Like much in the King’s Speech, intentions may be good but practicality is another matter altogether.

Hereditary peers will be finally removed from the House of Lords which is surely well overdue.

There is much, much more than I can comment on. Whether Parliament can get through one of the longest manifestos ever devised remains to be seen. But one omission is the commitment on assisted dying where the Prime Minister said he would allow time for a private members bill, and a free vote, in a conversation on LBC this month.

But at least some idiot ideas such as reducing the voting age to 16 have been dropped.

In summary this is a mainly harmless legislative agenda. But it won’t do much to improve the economy as is wanted and expected.

King’s Speech: https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/the-kings-speech-2024

Roger Lawson (Twitter: https://twitter.com/RogerWLawson  )

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