Labour might be celebrating the wins in Kingswood and Wellingborough but apart from the fact that by-elections are rarely good forecasts of general election results there are some things worth pointing out.
In reality the Labour vote did not increase, but the Tory vote dropped because it was eroded by support for Reform candidates. The problem for the Conservatives is that they have failed to retain the support of right leaning supporters when Reform have adopted the policies that attract traditional conservative voters. Such as much tighter control on immigration (the Conservatives have talked about this but action has been insipid and ineffective).
But Reform have some way to go to win seats because unfortunately many people vote the same way as they always have without looking at manifestos or the historic track records of the candidates. Democracy in the UK has become sclerotic because of those factors. We do need proportional representation but that is as far away as ever.
For example, look at the winning Labour candidate in Kingswood – Damian Egan. He was an Irish immigrant to Bristol but was elected as a Lewisham Councillor and then Mayor of Lewisham. His track record there included strong support of Low Traffic Neighbourhoods (LTNs) which has created strong opposition from those opposed to road closures which he ignored. But he did not talk about that in Kingswood but more on the deficiencies of the NHS.
Reform are attracting good candidates and building local representation but they still have a way to go to obtain mass support. They and the Labour party have won protest votes in these by-elections but it takes time and money to win general elections.
Note: I support both Reform and Conservative Parties but the Conservatives need to be much more effective in governing the country if they are to win my future vote.
Roger Lawson
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