CAKE (Patisserie), Foresight 4 VCT AGM, Payment Companies and Dunelm

More bad news from Patisserie Holdings (CAKE) today – well at least you can’t say the directors are not keeping you informed about their dire situation which is not always the case in such circumstances.

Yesterday the company announced that its major operating company had received a winding-up petition from HMRC, of which the directors had only recently become aware. Today the company said after further investigation the board has reached the conclusion that without an “immediate injection of capital, the Directors are of the view that there is no scope for the business to continue trading in its current form”.

The directors could possibly try to do a quick placing at a deep discount no doubt, borrow a pile of cash at extortionate rates or they could put it into administration. The big risk is that Exec Chairman Luke Johnson will put it through a pre-pack administration. I hope he does not because that won’t do his reputation any good at all. He needs to try and engineer some sensible solution if his reputation in the financial world is to remain intact. That is particularly so after he wrote an article for the Times in September on “a beginner’s guide to tried and tested swindles” suggesting how you can spot them. Clearly he was not taking his own advice. Whatever happens, the outlook for existing shareholders does not look good.

As another commentator said, the Treasury should not reduce the generous tax reliefs on AIM companies because they need to realise that it is a risky market.

But there was some good news on cake yesterday when the Supreme Court decided after all in an appeal from the lower courts that a cakemaker can refuse to bake cakes where the proposed wording in the icing is objectionable to them. A victory for common sense and liberty.

Today I attended the Annual General Meeting of Foresight 4 VCT (FTF). There is one advantage to owning VCT shares. They barely move when the stock market is otherwise in panic mode. They are one of the few “counter-cyclical” investments to public companies as they invest in private equity. There are some disadvantages of course. Illiquidity in the shares, and often disappointing long-term performance as in Foresight 4. But it may be improving.

I won’t cover the meeting in detail but there were a couple of interesting items in fund manager Russell Healey’s presentation. He mentioned they are still having problems with long delays on HMRC pre-approval of new qualifying investments – can still delay deals for a few months it seems. More representations are being made on this.

He also covered the performance of their top few investments. Datapath, the largest, was valued down because EBITDA fell but revenue is still growing and the fall in profits arose from more product development costs. Ixaris, the second largest, is growing strongly (I knew this because I have a direct holding in it and had just read the December 2017 accounts they filed at Companies House). From my recollection that’s the first year they have made a profit since founding 16 years ago. Russell couldn’t remember how many funding rounds the company had launched – was it 6 or 7, and me neither. That’s venture capital in early stage companies for you – you have to be very patient.

However, in response to a question from VCT shareholder Tim Grattan it was disclosed that VISA are tightening up on the rules regarding pre-payment cards. This might affect a significant part of Ixaris’s business. I suspect it will also affect many other pre-payment card offerings by payment companies, some of whom are listed. Particularly those that are using them to enable payments into gaming companies which Visa does not like.

It was another bad day in the market today, although Dunelm (DNLM) picked up after a very positive trading statement with good like-for-like figures. They are moving aggressively into on-line sales but their physical stores also seem to be producing positive figures so perhaps big retail sheds are still viable. They are not in the High Street of course.

While the market is gyrating I am doing the usual in such circumstances having been through past crashes. Will the market continue to go down, or bounce back up? Nobody knows. So I tend to follow the trend. But I also clear out the duds from my portfolio when the market declines – at least that way I can realise some capital gains losses and reinvest the cash in other shares that are now cheaper. I also look carefully at those stocks that seem to be wildly over-valued on fundamentals – those I sell. But those that suddenly have become cheap on fundamentals I buy, or buy more of. In essence I am not of the “hide under the sheets” mentality in the circumstances of a market rout as some are. But neither do I panic and dump shares wholesale. This looks like a short-term market correction to me at present, after shares (particularly in the USA) became adrift from fundamentals and ended up looking very expensive. But we shall no doubt see whether that is so in the new few days or weeks.

Roger Lawson (Twitter: https://twitter.com/RogerWLawson )

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Interesting AGMs, or not – Rosslyn and Dunelm

This morning I attended the AGM of Rosslyn Data Technologies (RDT) for the first time. I picked up some shares in a deeply discounted placing that qualified for EIS relief a few months back. One has limited time to research a company on offer when a placing comes up. It looked sound enough at the time although the historic financials did not impress. Prospects looked better after an acquisition although this company has been around a long time without becoming a shooting star. Bearing in mind the software sector it operates in – a somewhat niche area – I doubt it will show rapid growth either although the analyst forecasts I looked at before the meeting (from a single broker I gather) suggests a substantial rise in revenue and breakeven in the current financial year – partly from the merger no doubt.

Incidentally in case anyone from HMRC is reading this bearing in mind the current review of VCT/EIS tax reliefs, I would just like to say that I would certainly not have invested in the placing without the attraction of EIS tax relief. I considered the valuation at the placing price only “fair” and with the risks apparent, it would not have been attractive without the tax relief.

But at AGMs of small companies like this one, it is possible to learn a great deal. I will just mention a few things – there may be a more extensive report on ShareSoc’s web site later.

The Chairman was absent in the USA (not usually a good sign), so another of the directors, Barney Quinn chaired the meeting, and well. He read out a prepared statement (not issued in an RNS oddly), saying there had been good progress and they had been focussed on integration of the businesses since the start of the year. He mentioned the securing of a major partnership with D&B (see Annual Report).

I queried the very high debtors (accounts receiveable) which were about 6 months of revenue. Apparently this is due to work in progress on projects being recognised as revenue but not yet billed to clients (which tends to be on completion). To my mind, it’s still excessive though.

It seems to be taking some time to develop the market for the products/services and it seems their broker is currently reconsidering their forecasts and I suspect the existing ones are optimistic from what was said in the meeting – but we may soon see no doubt.

Anyway I learned quite a bit about the business and the management seemed to be competent on a brief acquaintence but a couple of long-standing shareholders turned up late for the meeting and said some negative things about the progress and valuation of the business. The company could really do with some more media coverage if they were to attract more investors and another shareholder suggested ways they could do so.

So it’s always good to attend AGMs, but one I will not be going to is that of Dunelm. This year it is Stoke at 9.30 am on the 21st November. Last year it was at a similar inconvenient and early time in Leicestershire.

A couple of year’s ago I attended their AGM in London (again at an early time), and complained about the remuneration arrangements. Have the more recent AGMs been deliberately arranged to avoid private shareholders like me from attending? I would not be surprised if that was the case. So I have voted against the Chairman, against the Remuneration resolutions, and against other directors also for that reason. It really is not acceptable for the directors of companies to pick inconvenient dates, times or locations for General Meetings.

I don’t object to going to Stoke but I do object to having to get up at 5 o’clock in the morning to be sure of getting there on time. But if anyone lives closer, and would like a proxy appointment from me to attend the AGM, let me know.

Roger Lawson (Twitter: https://twitter.com/RogerWLawson )

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