Author: roger9932

Paul Scott’s Podcast, SRT Marine Systems, Gelion, Ilika and Politics

The Christmas break gave me time to listen to Paul Scott’s latest podcast. As usual he has good words of wisdom to say about the UK small cap market.

He covers SRT Marine Systems (SRT) which I have held in the past. Forecasts regularly not met and a CEO who is always too optimistic. Good technology but the business model is the problem. Reliant on one-off big projects instead of recurring revenue. Paul is not optimistic about the company, and neither am I.

He also mentions IIika (IKA) and Gelion (GELN) negatively. They are both into battery technology. Ilika has been listed for longer but has yet to turn a profit. Paul argues such pre-profits, or lacking substantial revenue, companies should not be listed on the stock market and I agree. These are the kind of companies to avoid.

Such companies tend to list with optimistic stories about the ability of their technology to conquer the world, but it’s mainly bullshit in reality.

It’s time to reflect on the world of politics and our current leaders. I was sad to see that Bill Clinton has spent some time to hospital, probably with flu. He is aged 78 like me and has had major heart problems in the past. I also happened to watch a past speech by Ronald Reagen. Both Presidents were people who you could both trust and believe in. Convincing in what they said and providing good leadership. Donald Trump is not yet up to the same standard so I can only rate him as being the least worse choice. But the prospect for the US economy are still good.

In the UK our political leaders are second-rate in comparison. Keir Starmer is not someone I can trust and the economic decisions made by the Labour Government to date are poor in my opinion. Raising taxes on false claims about black holes in the budget are disgraceful. The UK is too highly taxed with a horrendously complex tax code. Confidence in the UK economy is rapidly evaporating. So on that depressing thought I will wish all readers a Happy New Year. Thankfully economic forecasts are generally wrong so don’t make any decisions based on my comments.

Roger Lawson (Twitter: https://x.com/RogerWLawson  )

You can obtain notifications of new posts in future by following me on Twitter (now “X”) – see https://x.com/RogerWLawson where new blog posts are usually mentioned.

ShareScope (and Sharepad) Portfolio Management Changes

I have been using a product called ShareScope from Ionic for many years – first purchased in 2014. This is a PC based product that enables me to record the transactions in the multiple portfolios I manage, which are on multiple different stockbroker platforms. It provides market pricing and performance information plus reports of dividends that should have been received on both individual portfolios and also as a “consolidated” view across all my portfolios. It is therefore invaluable for recording and checking transactions in addition to the spreadsheets I use to record cash and trading transactions.

But a recent announcement from Ionic tells me that after 27 years the software is approaching its “end of life” so all ShareScope users will be forced to move to newer software called SharePad during 2026 which runs as a web platform when “legacy” ShareScope will be decommissioned. SharePad will also be renamed ShareScope just to confuse people.

I have already moved my portfolios over to SharePad so are running the older software and the new in parallel. SharePad seems to provide most of the functionality I need with some minor exceptions (such as recording unlisted shares and a global view of dividends received to avoid the need to step through multiple portfolios). ShareScope allowed for configuration of reports and setting of “Alarms” on news which are not automatically transferred when importing portfolios from the older product so there is some work yet to be done. There is good support and advice from Ionic when needed and more improvements are planned.

It is annoying to have to relearn a new software product at my advanced age but it is not unexpected that such an event would take place so I will accept  it was time to revise/replace the software. After 27 years it must be getting difficult to maintain.

Any investors with multiple and large portfolios running on different platforms will find a product like ShareScope/SharePad quite essential and I can recommend them. Good services with reliable and accurate data over many years, although I do use other products also to provide financial analyses.  

Roger Lawson (Twitter: https://x.com/RogerWLawson  )

You can obtain notifications of new posts in future by following me on Twitter (now “X”) – see https://x.com/RogerWLawson where new blog posts are usually mentioned.

Polar Capital Technology Removes Performance Fee

The Polar Capital Technology Trust (PCT) announced their interim results this morning. It includes a statement that the Management Fees are being changed and that includes removal of the performance fee. This is to be welcomed as performance fees do not improve performance and just impose additional costs on investors. Managers have sufficient incentives to perform to the best of their ability without adding such fees.

The changes were summarised in the announcement as follows:               

Current fee arrangements: 

The current base management fee is structured over three tiers:

§  Tier 1:      0.80% on NAV up to and including £2bn  

§  Tier 2:      0.70% on NAV between £2bn and £3.5bn  

§  Tier 3:      0.60% on NAV above £3.5bn 

Performance fee: The performance fee participation rate is 10 per cent. of outperformance above the Benchmark, subject to a cap on the amount which may be paid out in any one year of 1 per cent. of NAV. Further information is provided in note 6 below as well as the Company Annual Report and Accounts for the year ended 30 April 2024.  

New fee arrangements:

The new base management fee will be structured over two tiers, and the performance fee will be removed entirely: 

§  Tier 1:      0.75% on NAV up to and including £2bn

§  Tier 2:      0.60% on NAV above £2bn

Performance fee: none

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Roger Lawson (Twitter: https://x.com/RogerWLawson  )

You can obtain notifications of new posts in future by following me on Twitter (now “X”) – see https://x.com/RogerWLawson where new blog posts are usually mentioned.

Roliscon Blog Changes

The Roliscon Blog which mainly contains my comments on financial news (see https://roliscon.blog/ ) has been hosted by WordPress for a number of years. It has provided an easy-to-use blogging platform. However I have recently noticed that the “subscribe” function that enabled people to get notifications of new posts stopped working some months ago.  I am therefore removing mention of it from past blog posts.

You can obtain notifications of new posts in future by following me on Twitter (now “X”) – see https://x.com/RogerWLawson where new blog posts are usually mentioned.

You can of course easily review the blog for recent posts or search for any topic of interest to you at any time.

Unfortunately the Subscribe function in WordPress no longer works and their support appears to be negligible so I will be looking at alternative platforms which are as easy to use. I already use Wix for the Roliscon web site (see https://www.roliscon.com/ ) so that may be an option but if you have other suggestions please let me know.

Roger Lawson (Twitter: https://x.com/RogerWLawson  )

You can obtain notifications of new posts in future by following me on Twitter (now “X”) – see https://x.com/RogerWLawson where new blog posts are usually mentioned.

Bitcoin Hits Record High But One Sad Person has Lost £450m in Landfill

The price of a Bitcoin has risen to over $100,000 for the first time. One sad person is suing Newport City Council for the accidental loss of a laptop hard drive deposited in a council waste dump which he alleges contained the keys to 8,000 Bitcoins.

The Council have refused to allow him to excavate the dump to retrieve the laptop and in any case they claim it is now their property.

The moral of this story is that if you are going to speculate in cryptocurrencies take great care of your security and back-ups, particularly if you have a clear-out over the Christmas holidays.

For more details see https://localgovernmentlawyer.co.uk/litigation-and-enforcement/400-litigation-news/59307-court-to-hear-claim-against-council-over-ownership-of-460m-bitcoin-wallet-and-access-to-old-landfill-where-hard-drive-was-dumped-in-error

Roger Lawson (Twitter: https://twitter.com/RogerWLawson  )

You can obtain notifications of new posts in future by following me on Twitter (now “X”) – see https://x.com/RogerWLawson where new blog posts are usually mentioned.

Assisted Dying and Transport News

 I was very pleased to see the Assisted Dying Bill passed in the House of Commons. I have supported the Dignity in Dying organisation (formerly VES) and their campaigns for over 30 years  – see https://www.dignityindying.org.uk/ . When I want to leave this world I want to go quickly and without judges or doctors interfering in my decision, or the necessity to go to Switzerland.  

I don’t want to live to 100 as my mother did. 85 years is long enough for anyone to complete their life’s ambitions as quality of life declines rapidly thereafter. I am ready to go anytime now but the Assisted Dying Bill might frustrate that ambition. There is no need for anyone to die in pain. The Assisted Dying Bill may not be perfect as it stands but there is plenty of time to improve it.

Opposition to the Bill is irrational and based on lack of knowledge of how such legislation works, and well, in other countries.

New Transport Secretary

The other big political news was the resignation of Louise Haigh as Transport Secretary. This arose because she had failed to disclose a past conviction for fraud over the loss of a mobile phone. This seems to have arisen because of a simple mistake and subsequent bad legal advice where she plead guilty.

Her replacement as Transport Secretary is Heidi Alexander, who previously served as Deputy Mayor for Transport in London. During her tenure, from 2018 to 2021, she oversaw the introduction and expansion of the ULEZ scheme, which was unnecessary, and the rollout of 20mph speed limits in London. TfL became a financial basket case during her tenancy. She may have a malign influence on national transport policy. In 2019, she candidly confessed, “I may not have qualifications in transport.” A frank admission given her track record in the role but it is convention to appoint people with no knowledge or experience of the subject to senior government positions. It’s traditional in the UK that amateurs are thought to be better than professionals to take responsibility for major policy and associated budgets. That’s a very silly approach.

Before she left Louise Haigh announced a new National Transport Strategy  – see  https://www.gov.uk/government/news/transport-secretary-unveils-her-vision-for-integrated-transport-across-england . It included a commitment to a ‘people first approach’ to getting people around the country. Recognising that different passengers have different needs, and the quality of transport varies across the country, it will set out how government can support local areas to make all forms of transport work together better. All this is political bullshit in essence which we have seen many times before to no great effect.

It is still unclear what diesel/petrol or hybrid vehicles will be allowed to be sold after 2030, although the media have reported that the Government is having a rethink and is consulting car manufacturers. But it is obvious that UK car and van manufacturing is already facing a cliff edge. Stellantis last week announced it was closing van manufacturing in Luton. Jaguar is suspending production of all cars because their product range is now all-electric and there is simply insufficient demand for such cars.

The requirement for all vehicle manufacturers to have a certain proportion of sales from all-electric vehicles is proving impossible to meet economically. One can see that many people will be keeping petrol vehicles for as long as 20 years so will frustrate this Government policy. Old cars could become quite valuable!

Roger Lawson (Twitter: https://twitter.com/RogerWLawson  )

You can obtain notifications of new posts in future by following me on Twitter (now “X”) – see https://x.com/RogerWLawson where new blog posts are usually mentioned.

Should ISAs Be Simplified? And AJ Bell Results

This morning AJ Bell announced their interim results. It is one of the UK’s largest investment platform operators and has been very successful at growing its customer base through having low charges and a simple user interface, particularly for SIPPs.

Customers grew by 7% in the platform business and overall revenue was up 37% with profits up 61%.

But the CEO has promoted the idea of simplifying the ISA regime. He says “Over the years a once simple product has fragmented into multiple versions with different rules and benefits. In proposals presented to the Chancellor, we have outlined a system which combines the many current versions into one ISA product that would be easy for people to understand and would encourage more investment”.

I am all in favour of that proposal. The financial world is complex enough and the different ISAs can potentially confuse and discourage new investors.

Roger Lawson (Twitter: https://twitter.com/RogerWLawson  )

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Shell AGM Disrupted

I am watching the Shell AGM and it has been disrupted by a campaign group chanting “Welcome to Hell” that has gone on for more than 15 minutes now.

Chairman Sir Andrew McKenzie has not taken vigorous action to stop the disruption. He should have ejected the objectors or suspended the meeting until order was resumed.

As a shareholder in Shell I consider this attempt to defeat the purpose of the meeting is an absolute disgrace.

As at the BP AGM, the Chairman was totally ineffective in controlling the mob.

Postscript: after 3 hours I am still watching the AGM. It has become more civilised after an attempt by some attendees to storm the top table. The CEO, Wael Sawan, made a good speech which covered the company’s decarbonisation programme. The target is net zero emissions by 2050. The plan is a balanced energy transition. He said that cutting supply while demand is unchanged does not work.

Based on the proxy vote counts, 80% of shareholders voted against Resolution 26 (the one requisitioned by protestors) while 80% supported the boards resolution (no.  25). That’s a quite decisive support of the company’s strategy.

There were some intelligent questions in the Q&A session and a few complaints about the timing and venue.

How to make these meetings shorter and avoid disruption by a vociferous minority? Could I suggest: more vetting of attendees or just make it an on-line only meeting. A more vigorous role by the Chairman would also help.

Roger Lawson (Twitter: https://twitter.com/RogerWLawson  )

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Young People’s Poor Knowledge of Investments

The AIC published an interesting press release last week. It was headlined “Young people more aware of cryptocurrency than any other investment”.

Young people they class as those aged 20-40 but it shows an astonishing ignorance of different types of investment. Even more astonishing is that they rely on web searches, Instagram, YouTube, Facebook and Twitter as sources of financial information.

Some 70% of survey respondents were aware of cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin, but only 18% of investment trusts.

The fact that most of these media that young people rely on are motivated by the desire to sell something to investors shows how easy it is for young investors to get misled. You can see why new investors are so easily sucked into speculative investments of one kind or another.

See https://www.theaic.co.uk/aic/news/press-releases/young-people-more-aware-of-cryptocurrency-than-any-other-investment for the full press release.

How to solve this problem? Education is one key and at a young age. But anything taught in school at age 15 will soon get forgotten, and be swamped by clever marketing by financial promoters.

ShareSoc has been working on this issue via their “Investor Academy” (see https://www.sharesoc.org/investor-academy/ ) but it does not seem to be having a great impact so far. There is little incentive to learn.

The only way I can see this state of affairs improving would be if investors had to pass a qualifying examination before they could invest in some types of investments. Having “health warnings” on cryptocurrency investment schemes is not enough.

Roger Lawson (Twitter: https://twitter.com/RogerWLawson  )

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