Category: Companies

A Week to Forget in the Stock Market and DotDigital

Last week was certainly one to forget with Friday particularly bad for most portfolios (the FTSE-100 was down 3.5% on Friday and tech stocks were again hit – Nasdaq was down 1.7% on the day). With the war in the Ukraine continuing the economic outlook looks bleak. We already had sharply rising inflation and sanctions against Russia are driving up the price of oil and gas which is never good for the economy. As anyone who has received a utility bill of late will realise, consumers and industry are going to be hit by sharply rising prices in the next few weeks which will affect many businesses.

There was already a downward trend in the market and I expect this will continue unless peace breaks out in the Ukraine which does not look likely until Russia has achieved its objectives which might take some weeks, if ever. Taking over a country where the population is totally opposed to you is never easy, particularly when outside assistance is being provided and sanctions are biting. Ukrainians are not apparently going to accept defeat.

One of my investments which was worst hit last week was DotDigital (DOTD) but not because of the war. The company provides an “omnichannel marketing automation platform” as they call it (email and sms messaging). The share price fell by 60% after an interim announcement on Wednesday that suggested the forecasts for the second half were not going to be met. In addition the CFO and Chairman are departing (the latter on health grounds).

This is a company I have held for some years first buying at around 8p in 2011 and selling some at around 200p in 2021 when enthusiasm for technology stocks drove the price up to unsustainable levels. The price now is 58p.

The company is profitable, has no debt and lots of cash on the balance sheet and has shown steady growth so there is much that is positive about the company. But clearly the expansion of US operations on which forecasts relied has gone seriously wrong. I attended the results webinar on Friday and submitted the following question:

“Clearly one of the reasons for reduced forecasts is the disappointing figures from the USA. Why after several years has DotDigital not established itself well there? Why has the management of that region not been changed as a result?  There does not seem to be anyone on the board with experience in the USA. As you are looking for a new Chairman could you please ensure that a suitable person is appointed with some knowledge of operating in the USA”. The question was not answered but there was enough information disclosed to make it clear that all was not as it should be.

A question on margins got a response that margins will be lower in the second half because marketing spend will be going up. As regards the US management issues, it was indicated that a couple of management teams had been poached by competitors offering higher salaries. Lots of money from VCs and private equity was going into competitors. It was mentioned that “customer attrition had stabilised” which was a remarkably negative comment. With this kind of product (which I use myself) where there is high recurring revenue people are generally reluctant to change platforms. They should not be losing customers! But the figures suggest they are losing some customers and gaining very few new ones in the USA.

So it would seem that after some years of trying to make a success of the US market they are back at square one with a new management team. It looks like another example of a UK business entering the USA but falling flat on its face in terms of marketing approach.

I will try and find out more next week but I have not quite given up on the company completely as yet. These issues might be minor ones if they take appropriate steps.

Roger Lawson (Twitter: https://twitter.com/RogerWLawson  )

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Warren Buffett Letter and Culture

Warren Buffett has published the latest Berkshire Hathaway letter to shareholders (see https://www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/2021ltr.pdf ). As usual it makes for an amusing and educational missive including his comment on the $3.3 billion the company paid in taxes. He says “I gave in the office” is an unassailable assertion when made by Berkshire shareholders.

The company improved its per share value by 29.6% in 2021 which was slightly ahead of the S&P 500 with dividends included. That’s a big improvement on the previous two years when Berkshire lagged the index.

What has been one of the key reasons for the success of the company over the last 55 years? I would suggest culture is one. A culture of honesty, integrity and rational behaviour if you read the latest and prior newsletters.

Meanwhile the Chartered Institute of Internal Auditors (CIIA) have published a report entitled “Cultivating a Healthy Culture” (see https://www.iia.org.uk/policy-and-research/research-reports/cultivating-a-healthy-culture/ ). It suggests based on research among its members that culture is important and that 66% believe that the UK Corporate Governance Code should be strengthened in regard to the responsibilities of company directors. The Financial Times reported this as one of the causes of several company collapses in recent years such as at BHS, Carillion, Greensill and Patisserie Valerie. But if you read the reporting on this issue there is discussion of Environmental, Social and Governance issues (ESG) and equality issues as if adding those to the Governance Code might assist.

Yes I suggest culture is important but the key question to ask when looking to invest in a company from my experience is simply this “Is the Management Competent and Trustworthy?” (that’s a quote from my book on investing). If you don’t trust the management walk on by. And if you are holding shares in a company and news comes out that undermines your confidence in the directors, then sell the shares. Don’t wait for them to reform.

Roger Lawson (Twitter: https://twitter.com/RogerWLawson  )

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Not Enough Wind

You might think that we have all had enough wind in the last few days, but not for some companies. The Renewables Infrastructure Group (TRIG), coincidentally with the worst storm for the last 30 years, reported their annual results on Friday (18/2/2022). They operate many wind turbine farms and reported that “Wind resource in 2021 has been unusually weak…” and as a result overall production was 12.6% below target.

But when there is plenty of wind, as on Friday, the price obtainable for the electricity generated fell according to one newspaper report. High winds last week also caused a huge 300ft wind turbine to collapse at a wind farm near Gilfach Goch in Wales. A large wind turbine can cost several millions of pounds so a few incidents like that would be expensive. It’s a case of too much wind is as bad as too little wind.

Is this going to be one of those companies who always complain about the weather? Such as ice cream makers, and garden hose suppliers. Or retailers who complain that spring is too early or too late for their new clothes collections?

I am sceptical so this is one shareholding I have that is definitely “on probation”. I will wait to see if they use a similar excuse in future years.

Meanwhile I hope readers weathered the storm with equanimity. It was not nearly as bad in South-East England as the one in October 1987 which I remember well. Eighteen people died in that one and trees were uprooted over a wide area closing many roads. But there have been much worse storms in the past. For example as many as 15,000 people died in the Great Storm of November 1703.    

Please don’t blame these events on climate change or global warming. They are just random events.

Roger Lawson (Twitter: https://twitter.com/RogerWLawson  )

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Abrdn Vote Delayed by Paper Shortage

It has been reported by Sky News and the FT that the vote on the acquisition of Interactive Investor by Abrdn (ABDN) has had to be delayed. The reason is simply that there is a shortage of paper it is suggested. Abrdn have about 1.1 million shareholders and the offer document is 120 pages long. Company law requires the document to be sent to everyone on the share register, and quite rightly you may so for such an important transaction.

Does this not highlight the absurdity though that email addresses are not held on share registers, only postal addresses. Some shareholders may prefer a paper document but most might prefer an option to receive it electronically, particularly as they are unlikely to read the whole 120 pages.

It is surely time to update the Companies Act to ensure all shareholders (including beneficial owners currently in nominee accounts) are on the share register with an email address. This would save companies a large amount of money and improve communication between companies and their investors. The absence of an email address also thwarts the ability of shareholders to communicate with other shareholders at reasonable cost which was a basic principle of Company Law since Victorian times.

Roger Lawson (Twitter: https://twitter.com/RogerWLawson  )

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Allianz Technology Trust Webinar and Covid Impact

Yesterday (26/1/2022) I attended two interesting webinars. These overlapped in time and it’s rather tricky to watch two at the same time but I think I got most of the interesting parts covered.

The most important one was a presentation by Allianz Technology Trust (ATT) organised by ShareSoc. This has been badly hit by the fall out in the technology sector in the last few weeks which has affected my holding in the Trust and many other holdings in my portfolio – the rout continued this morning after some recovery yesterday. I commented on this situation a week ago when I said “My feeling is that maybe prices of some of the stocks favoured by these companies have become over-inflated but that I still feel that they are better long-term bets than the traditional “value” plays. The world has been changing and technology has responded to meet the new challenges. Those companies that will meet the new demands of world markets are the ones where profits will rise in future”. So it was interesting to hear what investment manager Mike Seidenberg had to say about it.

He quoted the CEO of Microsoft who reportedly said “we are part of the digital transformation of businesses”. Mike suggested companies need to become digitally transformed because of the impact of the Covid epidemic.

In response to a question about the higher valuations of businesses they hold he agreed they are on higher P/Es than the market but they are also higher growth. What are they excited about? He answered collaboration software and automation to reduce the cost of labour – there is a global labour shortage.

He was asked why they sold out of Tesla but bought it back so it’s now the second largest position. Mike suggested that Tesla was now taking cost out of the product by vertical integration giving them a strong competitive position and there was a “halo” effect as Tesla cars hold their resale value. With more EVs in the market, more people now see them as mainstream. This bullish view of Tesla was backed up on the same day by results from the company as it reported a record net profit of $2.3bn in the fourth quarter of 2021. Despite some supply chain issues Elon Musk expects sales volumes to grow by more than 50% this year.

Another question raised was on performance fees in the trust and why invest in an active manager rather than an equivalent index fund. Mike suggested you are investing in a team and a process – you need to look at the long-term performance.

He concluded by saying it was a distinct advantage being immersed in the technology in the Bay Area which I can well understand being familiar with the area. In fact they have an office in Francisco on Mission Street in downtown San Francisco.

This was very amusing as on the same day the Financial Times ran an article on how San Francisco was “scaring away the tech crowd” due to crime and homelessness. Housing is also very expensive and technology companies have been moving employees to other cities. The social problems in San Francisco have been known about for many years and the Mission District was never an area to be wandering about in late at night. The FT article was clearly written by someone with little knowledge of the area.

In summary Allianz Technology Trust still looks to be well managed to me and I did not perceive any concerns with their market stance but clearly as they are focussed on technology companies they won’t be avoiding the general trends in that sector.

The other webinar I attended was one organised by Kidney Research UK which covered the impact of the Covid epidemic. As all of my family, other than I and my wife, have recently caught the disease there was interesting data on vaccination impact. I actually had a fourth vaccination two days ago because it seems that 25% of those with poor immune systems have not been creating antibodies. This was data from the “Melody” study in which I participated. Whether a fourth dose of a vaccine might help has yet to be determined.

But the heart-warming session was a talk by a young lady named Andrea who had been on kidney dialysis since being a baby but had recently had a transplant from a relative. She said she now felt “invincible”. It was a great example of how kidney transplants transform the life of such patients.

Roger Lawson (Twitter: https://twitter.com/RogerWLawson  )

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Paul Myners Obituary and BHP Unification Meetings

Lord Myners has died at the age of 73. He had a big hand in the rescue of the banks in the financial crisis of 2008 as a Treasury Minister in the Labour Government after becoming the socialists’ favourite capitalist. He was also responsible for the Myners Report into institutional investment which had some influence on corporate governance and institutional stewardship in the UK.

I met him a few times and he had a very persuasive personality but as the comments from Lord Rose below indicate he was not always straightforward. That included evasive answers in Parliament. For example, this comment on the nationalisation of Northern Rock: “The essential intention in taking Northern Rock into temporary public ownership was to stabilise the banking system and to reassure people that a deposit placed with a British bank is a safe deposit”. His forceful actions during the banking crisis which resulted in the effective nationalisation of big UK banks were not appreciated by many.

Stuart Rose made extensive comments in an adulatory article in the FT on his work with Myners during the attempted takeover of M&S including this: “The climax of the takeover battle, following the shareholder presentations and the massively attended annual meeting at The Royal Festival Hall, was the final board meeting. Paul’s sure-handed chairing saved the day. Using a combination of wisdom, wit, guile, persuasion and patience we saw off Green’s opportunistic approach”.

BHP Meetings

I watched the General Meetings of BHP Plc (BHP) today where there was a vote for unification of the Australian and UK companies. BHP will retain a UK listing but it will only be a “standard” listing so will no longer be in the FSTE-100. AGMs will only be held in Australia although on-line access will be provided.

This prompted a question regarding future “engagement” with the board from a shareholder who expressed concerns that hybrid AGMs reduced interaction with the directors and made follow-up questions difficult. He was certainly right in that regard. On-line access is not nearly as good as being physically present and clearly most investors will not find it practical to fly to Australia to attend in person. This is one of the few downsides of the unification, but it otherwise makes sense. The result of the voting is still awaited at the time of writing.

Postscript: There was overwhelming support for the unification by both Ltd and Plc shareholders.

Roger Lawson (Twitter: https://twitter.com/RogerWLawson  )

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Cladding Rectification – Persimmon et al.

My first big investment mistake of the year came to light yesterday. In October last year I started to buy a holding in Persimmon (PSN). The outlook for the housing market seemed bright and the company was trading on a prospective p/e of 11 with a yield of 8.6%. Revenue and earnings growth were forecast for the next couple of years.

But Michael Gove yesterday put a spanner in the works of my decision process by announcing that the Government is going to force developers to fix the cladding crisis – initially by persuasion but if they don’t come up with the money by early March there is threat of legislation to force them to act. The share price of Persimmon dropped sharply as a result along with all the major public housebuilders.

In April last year the company said that they were “Committed to undertake fire remedial works on buildings constructed using cladding materials that may no longer comply with current Government guidance and building regulations; £75m fund created to cover developments identified”. In addition the Annual Report said this: “As announced on 10 February 2021, we have therefore decided that for any multi-storey developments we have built, we will ensure that the necessary work to protect residents is undertaken. Where we own the building, we will act to do what is necessary to keep the residents safe. Where we do not own the building, we will work with the owner and offer our support. Ultimately, if the owners do not step up and meet their obligations, we will ensure the work is done to make the buildings safe. To meet this commitment, we have recognised a £75m provision”.

This seems reasonable but the Government is now asking them to do more. In a letter the Secretary of State has asked companies to agree to:

  1. make financial contributions to a dedicated fund to cover the full outstanding cost to remediate unsafe cladding on 11-18 metre buildings, currently estimated to be £4 billion.
  2. fund and undertake all necessary remediation of buildings over 11 metres that they have played a role in developing.
  3. provide comprehensive information on all buildings over 11 meters which have historic safety defects and which they have played a part in constructing in the last 30 years.

See https://www.gov.uk/government/news/government-forces-developers-to-fix-cladding-crisis for the full Government announcement.

How did this devasting situation arise that has left hundreds of thousands of people with unaffordable bills to rectify defects and unsaleable homes? It all stems from the Grenfell Tower fire disaster after which it was discovered that cladding used was inflammable despite it being sold as meeting fire safety regulations. In addition it was found that many buildings had other defects such as inflammable insulation, inflammable balconies, missing fire gaps, or other fire safety defects so the total bill to rectify all affected buildings might reach many billions of pounds.

The Government has already committed £5 billion to rectification work but more is needed to cover buildings up to 18 metres high and big builders are being asked to stump up much of the cost irrespective of whether they were to blame or not. Clearly much of the blame should be assigned to those who manufactured and sold the defective cladding, or even the Government for not imposing and enforcing adequate regulations. Housebuilders are complaining they should not have to foot all the bill.

Will the actions of the Government even fix the problem? The devil is in the detail as it is unclear that the leaseholders will not still be left with bills beyond their means to pay and years of uncertainty while their properties remain unsaleable. One has to have sympathy with their predicament but I also feel that the big housebuilders are being unreasonably targeted. Those who were at fault should certainly pay the cost of rectification but the Government seems to be wanting to bully those with money to pay up by using the court of public opinion, and threats. This is wrong.

The Government should identify who was at fault and assign responsibility in a clear legal and regulatory framework. Otherwise there may be years of legal battles which will not help those who are suffering.

Perhaps the moral of this story is that it is always a mistake to invest in companies that might be affected by Government interference or political whims.

Roger Lawson (Twitter: https://twitter.com/RogerWLawson  )

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New Year Forecasts and Internet Retailers

It’s that time of year when share tipsters start to issue their bets for the New Year. But the collapse of on-line grocer Farmdrop and recent profit warning from Boohoo (BOO) prompts me to think that one thing I will be avoiding next year is on-line retailers apart possibly from the gorillas already in that space.

Unlisted Farmdrop went out of business a few days ago so customers who were expecting deliveries of farm produce for Xmas won’t get them. Farmdrop is reported to have raised as much as $40 million in capital and has as many as 10,000 customers and 450 suppliers who will be having a threadbare Christmas. The company was making substantial losses based on its last filed accounts.

Farmdrop had competitors, as of course does Boohoo. I think entrepreneurs have realised that it is now very easy to set up an on-line shopping site using software such as Shopify, and there are in reality no barriers to entry. The products such as groceries or fast fashion are not unique but investors have been piling money into such businesses without thought as to how profits can be achieved. Companies have been spending enormous amounts on marketing on the basis that will get them to high enough revenue to cover their costs. But other companies are doing the same. Established players such as Boohoo will no doubt survive albeit at reduced profit margins as they will suffer a welter of small fish nibbling at their market share as the lure of apparent future profits draws in new entrants.

Physical retailers are not in a good position either with the Covid-10 epidemic resurging and forecasts being made of more lock-downs after Christmas. But they have at least moved to have on-line shopping options to a large extent, using their strong, well-known brand names and financial strength to take market share.

With personal taxes rising, and given the above, my tip for the New Year is to avoid retailers unless they have dominant positions or clear barriers to entry and definitely avoid small companies trying to establish themselves in already crowded internet markets.

Roger Lawson (Twitter: https://twitter.com/RogerWLawson  )

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BHP Unification

As a small shareholder in BHP Group (BHP) I have just received a heavyweight document (285 pages) explaining the proposed unification of the company. This proposal is to remove the dual listed structure of the Australian and UK companies and the complex corporate structure associated with that.

For UK shareholders of BHP Group Plc this will mean, if it is voted through, that you will have your Plc shares replaced by Depositary Interests (DIs) on a one for one basis in BHP Limited (the Australian company). Those DIs will be administered by Computershare and this is similar to how most foreign registered shares are managed. Those with BHP Group Plc paper share certificates will have those replaced by electronic DIs. Share dividends will be paid directly to you in sterling as before.

For those with very small holdings of certificated Plc shares there is a facility to sell your shares if you do not wish to hold the Ltd shares in future.

One major implication is that the new Limited Shares will not be covered by a Primary Listing in the London Stock Exchange but will likely be only a “standard” listing. This may cause some institutions who manage index-based funds such as UK focussed trackers to need to sell the shares, although as the new shares will increase the total number of Ltd shares listed worldwide there may be purchasing of the shares by other funds to maintain their index proportions. There may be some short-term volatility in the share price as a result.

At present the price of the Australian listed shares can significantly differ from the UK listed shares, after accounting for exchange rates. The unification will mean only one price applies in future. BHP Plc shares have historically traded at a lower price than the Limited shares and that differential will be eliminated.

Note that the exchange of shares for UK shareholders should not incur any capital gains liability – it will be treated as a “roll-over” not a sale/purchase transaction. There will also be no Australian withholding tax applying to future dividends.

BHP management gave a presentation to ShareSoc members this week on the unification which I watched and as a result I can see no reason not to support this transaction. Hence I will be voting in favour.

The above is a simple explanation of a complex transaction. So please read the supporting documents for the meetings at which this transaction will be voted upon on the 20thJanuary. You can also log-in online to view the meetings. Go to https://www.bhp.com/unify for more explanation, the shareholder circular and prospectus.

But please make sure you vote your shares, including those in any nominee accounts!

Roger Lawson (Twitter: https://twitter.com/RogerWLawson  )

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Electric Vehicles, Pod Point IPO and Bulb Rescue Cost

If the Government has its way, we’ll all be driving electric cars (EVs) soon. One of the concerns of drivers though is they might run out of battery power so the provision of chargers is of key importance in driving acceptance of electric cars.

There is clearly a big potential market for chargers, not just in homes but also in public places, at office car parks, supermarkets and other venues. One of the providers of chargers is Pod Point Group (PODP) who recently undertook a public stock market listing (IPO). The prospectus they issued (see link below) gives a very good overview of the market for electric vehicles and the charging infrastructure in the UK.

Pod Point was founded in 2009 and has installed over 100,000 charge points mainly in the UK. There are government grants available (OZEV) for home installations although those are likely to be withdrawn or altered from 2022. The government is also funding from 2022 large on-street charging schemes and rapid charging hubs across England. Meanwhile car manufacturers are focussing on production of new electric only (Battery Electric Vehicles – BEVs) and hybrid models. Some 6.6% of new vehicles sales were EVs in 2020 and by 2040 it is estimated that 70% of all vehicles on our roads will be EVs.

Chargers fall into two main categories – AC and DC with the latter providing more rapid charging. Home charging is typically via slow AC because UK homes do not have 3-phase electricity supplies. There are several different connector types. Pod Point estimate they have 50-60% of the UK home charge points and 29% share of public installations. But there are a number of competitors include BP Pulse. Petrol station forecourts are one location where chargers are being installed but it is unclear where the dominant charging location (home, office, etc) will be in future.

Those people with homes with no off-street parking will need to charge at public locations unless viable “pavement” chargers are developed. London-based Connected Kerb plans to install 190,000 on-street chargers by 2030.

Pod Point owns some installations under commercial arrangements with venue locations and that includes 396 Tesco sites where slow chargers are installed. Is that to encourage shoppers to spend more time in the store while their vehicle is recharging one wonders?

Pod Point doubled its revenue in 2020 and more than doubled its revenue in the first six months of 2021, but still made a large operating loss. The market cap of Pod Point at the time of writing is about £380 million.

How the market for the provision of EV chargers will develop is unclear and there are the usual numerous risk warnings in the prospectus. Government interference in the sector is clearly one risk and when a market is growing rapidly there are often folks willing to plunge in regardless of short-term profitability. The big oil companies are also moving into the sector and might provide significant competition.

An example of the problem caused by misguided Government interference in free markets is the collapse of Bulb which is apparently going to cost £1.7 billion to keep it afloat and ensure customers remain connected to gas supplies. It could be more if the market price of gas continues to rise. The cost to the Government will mean it is one of the largest bail-outs they have had to provide since the banking crisis in 2008, and they are unlikely to get their money back in this case.

As for most IPOs I will be avoiding investing in Pod Point until the company is clearly profitable and its market more established but the company has certainly come a long way in a short period of time. Trying to forecast the future profitability of Pod Point is exceedingly difficult – there are just too many variables.

Roger Lawson (Twitter: https://twitter.com/RogerWLawson  )

Pod Point Group Prospectus: https://investors.pod-point.com/prospectus

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