Mello Event, ProVen and ShareSoc Seminars and Lots More News

It’s been a busy last two days for me with several events attended. The first was on Tuesday when I attended the Mello London event in Chiswick. It was clearly a popular event with attendance up on the previous year. I spoke on Business Perspective Investing and my talk was well attended with an interesting discussion on Burford Capital which I used as an example of a company that fails a lot of my check list rules and hence I have never invested in it. But clearly there are still some fans and defenders of its accounting treatment. It’s always good to get some debate at such presentations.

On Wednesday morning I attended a ProVen VCT shareholder event which turned out to be more interesting than I expected. ProVen manages two VCTs (PVN and PGOO), both of which I hold. It was reported that a lot of investment is going into Adtech, Edtech, Fintech, Cybersecurity and Sustainability driven by large private equity funding. Public markets are declining in terms of the number of listed companies. The ProVen VCTs have achieved returns over 5 years similar to other generalist VCTs but returns have been falling of late. This was attributed to the high investment costs (i.e. deal valuations have been rising for early stage companies) in comparison with a few years back. Basically it was suggested that there is too much VC funding available. Some companies seem to be raising funds just to get them to the next funding round rather than to reach profitability. ProVen prefers to invest in companies focused on the latter. Even from my limited experience in looking at some business angel investment propositions recently, the valuations being suggested for very early stage businesses seem way too high.

This does not bode well for future returns in VCTs of course. In addition the problem is compounded by the new VCT rules which are much tougher such as the fact that they need to be 80% invested and only companies that are less than 7 years old qualify – although there are some exceptions for follow-on investment. Asset backed investments and MBOs are no longer permitted. The changes will mean that VCTs are investing in more risky, small and early stage businesses – often technology focused ones. I suspect this will lean to larger portfolios of many smaller holdings, with more follow-on funding of the successful ones. I am getting wary of putting more money into VCTs until we see how all this works out despite the generous tax reliefs but ProVen might be more experienced than others in the new scenario.

There were very interesting presentations from three of their investee companies – Fnatic (esports business), Picasso Labs (video/image campaign analysis) and Festicket (festival ticketing and business support). All very interesting businesses with CEOs who presented well, but as usual rather short of financial information.

There was also a session on the VCT tax rules for investors which are always worth getting a refresher on as they are so complex. One point that was mentioned which may catch some unawares is that normally when you die all capital gains or losses on VCTs are ignored as they are capital gains tax exempt, and any past income tax reliefs are retained (i.e. the five-year rule for retention does not apply). If you pass the VCT holdings onto your spouse they can continue to receive the dividends tax free but only up to £200,000 worth of VCT holdings transferred as they are considered to be new investments in the tax year of receipt. I hope that I have explained that correctly, but VCTs are certainly an area where expert tax advice is quite essential if you have substantial holdings in them.

One of the speakers at this event criticised Woodford for the naming of the Woodford Equity Income Fund in the same way I have done. It was a very unusual profile of holdings for an equity income fund. Stockopedia have recently published a good analysis of the past holdings in the fund. The latest news from the fund liquidator is that investors in the fund are likely to lose 32% of the remaining value, and it could be as high as 42% in the worst scenario. Investors should call for an inquiry into how this debacle was allowed to happen with recommendations to ensure it does not happen again to unsuspecting and unsophisticated investors.

Later on Wednesday I attended a ShareSoc company presentation seminar with four companies presenting which I will cover very briefly:

Caledonia Mining (CMCL) – profitable gold mining operations in Zimbabwe with expansion plans. Gold mining is always a risky business in my experience and political risks particularly re foreign exchange controls in Zimbabwe make an investment only for the brave in my view. Incidentally big mining company BHP (BHP) announced on Tuesday the appointment of a new CEO, Mike Henry. His pay package is disclosed in detail – it’s a base salary of US$1.7 million, a cash and deferred share bonus (CDP) of up to 120% of base and an LTIP of up to 200% of base, i.e. an overall maximum which I calculate to be over $7 million plus pension. It’s this kind of package that horrifies the low paid and causes many to vote for socialist political parties. I find it quite unjustifiable also, but as I now hold shares in BHP I will be able to give the company my views directly on such over-generous bonus schemes.

Ilika (IKA) – a company now focused on developing solid state batteries. Such batteries have better characteristics than the commonly used Lithium-Ion batteries in many products. Ilika are now developing larger capacity batteries but it may be 2025 before they are price competitive. I have seen this company present before. Interesting technology but whether and when they can get to volumes sufficient to generate profits is anybody’s guess.

Fusion Antibodies (FAB) – a developer of antibodies for large pharma companies and diagnostic applications. This is a rapidly growing sector of the biotechnology industry and for medical applications supplying many new diagnostic and treatment options. I already hold Abcam (ABC) and Bioventix (BVXP) and even got treated recently with a monoclonal antibody (Prolia from Amgen) for osteopenia. One injection that lasts for six months which apparently adjusts a critical protein – or in longer terms “an antibody directed against the receptor activator of the nuclear factor–kappa B ligand (RANKL), which is a key mediator of the resorptive phase of bone remodeling. It decreases bone resorption by inhibiting osteoclast activity”. I am sure readers will understand that! Yes a lot of the science in this area does go over my head.

As regards Fusion Antibodies I did not like their historic focus on project related income and I am not clear what their “USP” is.

As I said in my talk on Tuesday, Abcam has been one of my more successful investments returning a compound total return per annum of 31% Per Annum since 2006. It’s those high consistent returns over many years that generates the high total returns and makes them the ten-baggers, and more. But you did not need to understand the science of antibodies to see why it would be a good investment. But I would need a lot longer than the 30 minutes allowed for my presentation on Tuesday to explain the reasons for my original investment in Abcam and other successful companies. I think I could talk for a whole day on Business Perspective Investing.

Abcam actually held their AGM yesterday so I missed it. But an RNS announcement suggests that although all resolutions were passed, there were significant votes against the re-election of Chairman Peter Allen. Exactly how many I have been unable to find out as their investor relations phone number is not being answered so I have sent them an email. The company suggests the vote was because of concerns about Allen’s other board time commitments but they don’t plan to do anything about it. I also voted against him though for not knowing his responsibility to answer questions from shareholders (see previous blog reports).

The last company presenting at the ShareSoc event was Supermarket Income REIT (SUPR). This is a property investment trust that invests in long leases (average 18 years) and generates a dividend yield of 5% with some capital growth. Typically the leases have RPI linked rent reviews which is fine so long as the Government does not redefine what RPI means. They convinced me that the supermarket sector is not quite such bad news as most retail property businesses as there is still some growth in the sector. Although internet ordering and home delivery is becoming more popular, they are mainly being serviced from existing local sites and nobody is making money from such deliveries (£15 cost). The Ocado business model of using a few large automated sites was suggested to be not viable except in big cities. SUPR may merit a bit more research (I don’t currently hold it).

Other news in the last couple of days of interest was:

It was announced that a Chinese firm was buying British Steel which the Government has been propping up since it went into administration. There is a good editorial in the Financial Times today headlined under “the UK needs to decide if British Steel is strategic”. This news may enable the Government to save the embarrassment of killing off the business with the loss of 4,000 direct jobs and many others indirectly. But we have yet to see what “sweeteners” have been offered to the buyer and there may be “state-aid” issues to be faced. This business has been consistently unprofitable and this comment from the BBC was amusing: “Some industry watchers are suggesting that Scunthorpe, and British Steel’s plant in Hayange in France would allow Jingye to import raw steel from China, finish it into higher value products and stick a “Made in UK” or “Made in France” badge on it”. Is this business really strategic? It is suggested that the ability to make railway track for Network Rail is important but is that not a low-tech rather than high-tech product? I am never happy to see strategically challenged business bailed out when other countries are both better placed to provide the products cheaper and are willing to subsidise the companies doing so.

Another example of the too prevalent problem of defective accounts was reported in the FT today – this time in Halfords (HFD) which I will add to an ever longer list of accounts one cannot trust. The FT reported that the company “has adjusted its accounts to remove £11.7 million of inventory costs from its balance sheet” after a review of its half-year figures by new auditor BDO. KPMG were the previous auditor and it is suggested there has been a “misapplication” of accounting rules where operational costs such as warehousing were treated as inventory. In essence another quite basic mistake not picked up by auditors!

That pro-Brexit supporter Tim Martin, CEO of JD Wetherspoon (JDW) has been pontificating on the iniquities of the UK Corporate Governance Code (or “guaranteed eventual destruction” as he renames it) in the company’s latest Trading Statement as the AGM is coming up soon. For example he says “There can be little doubt that the current system has directly led to the failure or chronic underperformance of many businesses, including banks, supermarkets, and pubs” and “It has also led to the creation of long and almost unreadable annual reports, full of jargon, clichés and platitudes – which confuse more than they enlighten”. I agree with him on the latter point but not about the limit on the length of service of non-executive directors which he opposes. I have seen too many non-execs who have “gone native”, fail to challenge the executives and should have been pensioned off earlier (not that non-execs get paid pensions normally of course. But Tim’s diatribe is well worth reading as he does make some good points – see here: https://tinyurl.com/yz3mso9d .

He has also come under attack for allowing pro-Brexit material to be printed on beer mats in his pubs when the shareholders have not authorised political donations. But that seems to me a very minor issue when so many FTSE CEOs were publicly criticising Brexit, i.e. interfering in politics and using groundless scare stories such as supermarkets running out of fresh produce. I do not hold JDW but it should make for an interesting AGM. A report from anyone who attends it would be welcomed.

Another company I mentioned in my talk on Tuesday was Accesso (ACSO). The business was put up for sale, but offers seemed to be insufficient to get board and shareholder support. The latest news issued by the company says there are “refreshed indications of interest” so discussions are continuing. I still hold a few shares but I think I’ll just wait and see what the outcome is. Trading on news is a good idea in general but trading on the vagaries of guesses, rumours or speculative share price movements, and as to what might happen, is not wise in my view.

Roger Lawson (Twitter: https://twitter.com/RogerWLawson )

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Woodford Fund and Trust News

The good news for investors in the Woodford Patient Capital Trust (WPCT) is that Schroders are taking over management of the portfolio.  The share price promptly jumped upwards on the news (up about 29% at the time of writing), but speculators need to be wary. Although the trust is still at a large discount to the Net Asset Value, I looked at the portfolio yesterday and was not impressed.

These are the top ten holdings by value: Rutherford Health, Benevolent AI, Atom Bank, Oxford Nanopore, Industrial Heat, Immunocore A Pref, Kymab B Pref, Mission Therapeutics, Ratesetter and Autolus. There may be some value in there but actually judging it, or confirming it, is far from easy.

One issue not raised in the recent BBC Panorama programme on Woodford was that of the naming of the Woodford Equity Income Fund. Such funds typically focus on paying high dividends to investors and to do so they invest in high dividend paying companies. They therefore tend to hold boring large cap companies. But the Woodford fund, which is now being wound up, was very different. It did have some high dividend paying holdings in the fund but not necessarily large cap ones and it also had a number of early stage companies that were unlisted. This was not a typical “Equity Income” fund. Investors might feel they were misled in that regard by the name.

For a more typical “equity income” fund, look at City of London Investment Trust (CTY) who are holding their Annual General Meeting today at 2.30 pm. You may be able to watch the AGM on-line, or see a recording later, by going to https://www.janushenderson.com/en-gb/investor/ . Their top ten holdings at the year end were: Shell, HSBC, Diageo, BP, Unilever, Prudential, Lloyds Bank, RELX, BAT and Rio Tinto.

But these were the top ten holdings in the Woodford Equity Income Fund: Barratt Developments, Burford Capital, Taylor Wimpey, Benevolent Ai, Provident Financial, Theravance Biopharma, Countryside Properties, Oxford Nanopore, Ip Group and Raven Property Convertible Pref 6.5%. That’s a very different kind of portfolio.

The AIC definition of an equity income fund primarily says that typically the company will have a yield on the underlying portfolio ranging between 110% and 175% of that of an All-Share Index (World or UK). It says nothing about the riskiness of the companies being invested in nor their size when income investors are typically looking for security of income. Surely the definition of an equity income fund needs revisiting and more information provided to investors. The latter is of course now taking place as new direct investors have to confirm they have read the KID on the fund when doing so on-line but do they read them and understand them?

Postscript: The broadcast on-line video of the City of London IT AGM as definitely promised in the notice of the meeting could not be found when required and after contacting Janus Henderson I am still awaiting a call back 24 hours later to tell me where a recording might be. This is really not good enough.

Postscript 2 (4 days later): A recording of the presentation by Job Curtis at the City of London AGM and the business of the meeting is present here: https://www.janushenderson.com/en-gb/investor/investment-trusts-live/ .

As regards Woodford Patient Capital Trust, it has been pointed out to me that one aspect I did not mention and which might affect an investors view of the valuation was the high level of debt in the company. The gearing has grown as some equity holdings were disposed of and this may be another problem for Schroders.

Roger Lawson (Twitter: https://twitter.com/RogerWLawson )

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Panorama on Woodford – Expletives Deleted?

Panorama covered the Woodford debacle last night and the issue of conflicts of interest in fund managers. They tried door-stepping Neil Woodford to ask him some questions, but he just walked past them. I think the questions would have been rhetorical anyway, such as “why did he make so many duff bets on companies” and “why should he have made millions while investors in his funds lost money”?

The Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) came in for a lot of criticism for not intervening sooner and allegedly not enforcing the rules concerning the liquidity of holdings in open-ended funds.

My old sparring partner T** W** was interviewed in his new home in Wales – looks like he has a renovation project on his hands. I don’t like to mention his name in case it attracts readers to follow him when they might find his use of language somewhat offensive. But in this interview there were no expletives which is unusual for him – perhaps the BBC deleted them.  They also interviewed some investors in the Woodford funds and one of them definitely had her expletives deleted.

The programme also covered the issue of the conflicts of interest in fund managers such as the fact that as their fees are based on the value of funds under management, there are strong incentives to grow the assets and also an incentive to manipulate the share prices. For example, without suggesting that Woodford specifically did these things, if a fund manager buys more of a listed stock in the market then that can raise the price, particularly when the stock is a small cap one and relatively illiquid. In the case of unlisted stocks, investing at a higher price than any previous trades causes the whole company to be revalued upwards (see BVCA valuation rules). There is clearly the possibility of perverse incentives here.

The programme also mentioned the case of Mark Denning an investment manager for Capital Group who allegedly had been trading in stocks on his personal account that were also held by the fund he managed. He denies it, but clearly such activity could enable “front-running” of trades and other abuses. The Panorama programme argued that there was in essence very little oversight of fund managers.

In summary the BBC programme was a good overview of the issues and T** W** made a useful contribution. The FCA should certainly be tightening up on the oversight of open-ended funds and their managers, and should be reviewing the liquidity rules even if they are bound by the EU Directives in that regard at present.

As the FCA never acts quickly, which is of course part of the problem, in the meantime investors might like to consider what I said in my recent book in the chapter on Trusts and Funds. I repeat some excerpts here:

“A key measure of the merit of a fund is its long-term performance against similar funds or its benchmark”. [Woodford’s funds, after he set up his new management company. never demonstrated that].

“One issue to examine is whether a fund manager has a consistent and effective process for selecting investments if they are an active manager. It is important that they are not simply making ad-hoc decisions about investments however experienced they are”. [See my comments on City of London Investment Group in a previous blog post for an example].

“To judge whether a fund manager is competent it helps to look at the underlying companies in which they invest. Are they investing in companies that show a high return on capital while being on relatively low P/Es and with significant growth in earnings or are they investing in shares that appear to be simply cheap? Are they picking companies that are of high quality – in other words displaying the characteristics covered in the first few chapters of this book?” [Anyone looking at the holdings of the Woodford Equity Income Fund or Patient Capital Trust would have realised that many of the holdings were speculative].

One issue not raised in the BBC programme was that of the naming of the Woodford Equity Income Fund. Such funds typically focus on paying high dividends to investors and to do so they invest in high dividend paying companies. They therefore tend to hold boring large cap companies. But the Woodford fund was very different. It did have some high dividend paying holdings in the fund but not necessarily large cap ones and it also had a number of early stage companies that were unlisted. This was not a typical “Equity Income” fund. Investors might feel they were misled in that regard by the name.

Roger Lawson (Twitter: https://twitter.com/RogerWLawson )

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Woodford and Hargreaves Lansdown, Rosslyn Data AGM and Brexit

To follow up on my previous blog post over the collapse of Woodford Investment Management and how to avoid dud managers, the focus has now turned in the national media upon Hargreaves Lansdown (HL.). Investors who have lost a lot of money, and now won’t be able to get their cash out for some time, are looking for who to blame. Neil Woodford is one of course, but what about investment platforms such HL?

The Woodford Equity Income Fund was on the HL “best buy” list for a long time – indeed long after its poor performance was evident. They claimed at a Treasury Committee that Woodford had displayed similar underperformance in the past and had bounced back. But that was when he had a very different investment strategy so far as one can deduce.

The big issue though that the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) should be looking at is the issue of platforms favouring funds that give financial incentives – in this case via providing a discount to investors and hence possibly generating more revenue when better performing funds such as Fundsmith refused to do so. HL have not recommended Fundsmith in the past, despite it being one of the top performing funds.

It is surely not sensible for fund platforms to be recommending funds unless they have no financial interest in the matter whatsoever. Indeed I would suggest the simple solution is for platforms to be banned from recommending any funds or trusts, thus forcing the investor to both get educated and make up their own minds. Such a rule might spawn a new group of independent retail investor advisors which would be surely to the good.

Today I attended the Annual General Meeting of Rosslyn  Data Technologies (RDT). This is an IT company that I bought a few shares in a couple of years ago as an EIS investment. It was loss-making then, and still is but is getting near break-even.

There were only about half a dozen shareholders present, but they had lots of questions. I only cover the important ones here. New Chairman James Appleby chaired the meeting reasonably well, but left most of the question answering to others.

Why did company founder Charles Clark step down (as announced today)? Reason given was that he had set up another company where there was  a potential conflict of interest.

I asked about the Landon acquisition that was announced in September. How much revenue would this add?  They are not sure but maybe £0.5 million. Bearing in mind they only paid £48,750 for the assets and client list from the administrator, that seems to be me a remarkably good deal. But it later transpired that they have outstanding contracts (pre-paid) which they have to finish so that might be another £250,000 of costs. However, that’s still cheap and by rationalising some of the costs they should quickly turn Langdon profitable. It was suggested that Langdon had been mismanaged with over-expansion and too many staff which is why it went bust – only a few of the staff have been taken on. Note that the impact of this acquisition is not yet in broker’s forecasts.

It was noted that RDT is currently broadly on track for analysts forecasts but it has been a slow start to the year. Deals are slipping into the second half. Decision timescales in major corporates seem to be stretching out at present.

One shareholder, who said “I am talking too much – a daft old man”, which it is difficult to disagree with as he asked numerous questions, some not very intelligent, asked whether they were charging enough for their services. There was a long debate on that issue, but it was explained that competitors were charging less.

There were also concerns about the slow rate of revenue growth (only 8.3% last year). Comment: this company is clearly not operating in a hot, high-growth sector of the market. But it does seem to be competently managed and if they can do acquisitions like Langdon that are complementary then profits should grow.

Altogether a useful AGM.

Brexit has of course made many UK companies nervous about new projects. At the time of writing the latest position appears to be that the EU and Boris have agreed a deal. Most Conservatives like it, but the DUP does not and Labour, LibDems and SNP will all seem likey to vote against it in Parliament. The last group all seem to be playing politics to get what they individually want, but not a general election which on current opinion polls might result in a big Conservative majority. Most people are very frustrated that this group are blocking support of Brexit so we can close down the issue and move on when there seems to be no overall public support for another referendum or cancelling Brexit altogether.

But even given this messy situation, I am hopeful that it will be resolved in one way or the other soon. But then I am the perpetual optimist. I am investing accordingly.

Roger Lawson (Twitter: https://twitter.com/RogerWLawson )

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Woodford Closing Down and How to Avoid Dud Managers

No sooner had I suggested that Neil Woodford should retire after his management company was fired from looking after the Woodford Equity Income Fund (see my personal blog article here: https://tinyurl.com/yxflsh8c ) than he decided to shut down the company. So that looks like the end of his career as a fund manager. Other funds that the company managed were the Woodford Income Focus Fund which has also been closed to redemptions and the Woodford Patient Capital Trust (WPCT).

The latter trust’s share price fell another 5% today and it was already on a discount to Net Asset Value of over 45%. The board of WPCT needs to find another manager and quickly. But yesterday they said that “The Board is in advanced discussions in relation to the ongoing management of the Company’s portfolio and expects to be in a position to announce details of the new management arrangements shortly” so perhaps it won’t be long.

Is the discount on WPCT something to take advantage of? Or can one pick up some shares cheaply that the open-ended funds have been and will continue to dispose of? The problem with this is that valuing some of these holdings is exceedingly difficult and some that are unlisted may be worth a lot less than that at which they were last valued by the trust. In addition it may be some time before there are any realisations from the open-ended funds even in the liquid holdings. In essence it would need a lot of careful analysis by an investor to see if there is money to be made from this collapse, and I am not sure it would be worth the effort. Would anyone have any confidence in picking up shares in companies that Woodford had chosen? They might consider that a very negative indicator now.

There was an interesting analysis in the Daily Telegraph by “Questor” (Richard Evans) today on how to spot poor managers. One is not keeping to their initial promise about dividends from the fund, the second is not having a consistent investment style and sticking to it. He said that investment professionals “know perfectly well that no fund manager can offer certainty of returns but they can and do expect certainty about how their money is managed”. He also said they “have learnt the hard way that when they entrust money to an asset manager on the basis or track record or reputation alone, things go wrong”. I certainly agree with those sentiments.

Which is why I said yesterday that investors need to monitor their fund (or trust) investments closely. Unfortunately many of the people who invest in open-ended funds do so on the recommendation of others (IFAs or platforms) without understanding what they are buying. They often get very little information on the performance of the fund or the issues the manager is facing. Even if they do get sent it, they tend not to read it. This is something the FCA could look at to avoid such debacles in the future.

Roger Lawson (Twitter: https://twitter.com/RogerWLawson )

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Burford, ShareSoc Seminar, Woodford Patient Capital and Patisserie

Burford Capital (BUR) have published a report by Professor Joshua Mitts over the alleged manipulation of their share price in early August, i.e. market abuse by “spoofing” and “layering”. It links it to the shorting attack by Muddy Waters and is fairly convincing.

They have also published a “witness statement” for an application in the High Court for disclosure of trading information from the London Stock Exchange so as to identify who was trading. In it they also appear to be suggesting that there may have been some “naked” short selling taking place, i.e. sales not covered by borrowed stock which they indicate is illegal under EU Short Selling Regulation 2012.

My opinion on the merits of Burford as an investment or who is going come out smelling of roses in this battle are unchanged – it could be neither. Incidentally I will be discussing the merits of Burford as an investment at some length in my presentation on my book “Business Perspective Investing” at the ShareSoc Birmingham Seminar tomorrow evening (Tuesday) – see https://tinyurl.com/yxryk2h2 . It’s not too late to register and it should be an interesting discussion.

Woodford Patient Capital (WPCT) issued their interim results this morning. Net asset value per share was down 26% on the previous year end. The share price removed unmoved but it was already at a discount of nearly 40% to the Net Asset Value and more write-downs in their portfolio have been made since the half year end. The discount is quite extreme for any investment trust. There have been more board changes and there is a lengthy article in the Financial Times this morning on the pressure faced by Neil Woodford to quit managing the trust. The article suggests the board has lost confidence in Mr Woodford and is courting other asset managers – but who would want to take it on?

I happened to visit a Patisserie Valerie café in York during my Northern vacation last week. Now under new management of course. But the service was absolutely dire, prices were high and there were few customers there when other cafes in the town were busy. One customer walked out because of the slow service. Looks like the new management have taken on a problem.

Roger Lawson (Twitter: https://twitter.com/RogerWLawson )

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Brexit Investment Strategies

Investors may have noticed that the pound is in free fall and heading towards US$1.20. That’s near the low after the initial Brexit vote. Pundits, not that they can be relied on for forex forecasts, suggest it could go lower now that we seem to be heading for a “no-deal” Brexit.

With the pound falling, and potential damage to the UK economy from a hard Brexit, investors should surely have been avoiding companies reliant on UK sales, or UK consumers, or those such as engineers and manufacturers that rely on just-in-time deliveries from Europe. The key has been to invest in those UK listed companies that make most of their sales overseas in areas other than the EU.

One such company that announced interim results today is 4Imprint (FOUR), a supplier of promotional merchandise. Most of its sales are in the USA and its accounts are in dollars. Revenue in dollar terms was up 16% at the half year and pre-tax profit up 22%. The share price rose 6.5% yesterday and more this morning but the former suggests the good news leaked out surely. With the added boost from currency movements, this is the kind of company in which to invest but there are many other companies with similar profiles. For example, many software companies have a very international spread of business, or specialist manufacturers such as Judges Scientific (JDG). Those are the kind of companies that have done well and are likely to continue to do so in my view if the US economy remains buoyant and the dollar exchange rate remains favourable.

The other alternative to investing in specific UK listed companies with large export revenues and profits is of course to invest directly in companies listed in the USA or other markets. But that can be tricky so the other option is to invest in funds such as investment trusts that have a global spread of investments with a big emphasis on the USA. Companies such as Alliance Trust (ATST), Scottish Mortgage (SMT) or Polar Capital Technology Trust (PCT) come to mind. Alliance Trust has a one-year share price total return of 11% according to the AIC and the share price discount is still about 5%. I received the Annual Report of PCT yesterday and it makes for interesting reading. Net asset total return up 24.7% last year and it again beat its benchmark index. The investment team there has been led by Ben Rogoff for many years and what he has to say about the technology sector is always worth reading. Apparently the new technology to watch is “software containerisation” which is compared to the containerisation of cargo shipments in its revolutionary impact.

Another interesting comment is from the Chairman complimenting Ben on having the skill of buying shares and holding those which go on to outperform, but also knowing when to sell at the right time which the Chairman suggests is not common in fund managers.

Another hedge against a hard Brexit is to invest in companies that own warehouses because a lot more stockpiling is already taking place as a protection around the Brexit date by importers, but also more will be required to hold buffer stocks for manufacturers in the future. Companies such as Segro (SGRO), Tritax Big Box (BBOX), and Urban Logistics (SHED) have been doing well for that reason. They have also been helped by the trend to internet shopping which requires more warehousing space and less retail space. These trends are likely to continue in my view and the retail sector is likely to remain difficult for those retailers reliant on physical shops. You can see that from the results from Next (NXT) this morning. Shop sales down while internet sales up with the overall outcome better than expected as on-line sales grew rapidly. Anyone who expects the high street or shopping malls to revive is surely to going to be disappointed in my view.

There are bound to be some problems for particular sectors if we have a hard Brexit. The plight of Welsh sheep farmers was well covered by the BBC as Boris Johnson visited Wales yesterday. Most of their production currently goes to Europe but they may face 40% tariffs in future. The Prime Minister has promised assistance to help them but they have been heavily reliant on subsidies in the past in any case. There will need to be some difficult decisions made about the viability of farming on marginal land in future.

The falling pound has other implications of course. It will help exporters but importers will face higher prices with the result that inflation may rise. However, there are few products from Europe that cannot be substituted by home grown or produced equivalents, or by lower cost products from the rest of the world. With import tariffs lowered on many imports the net effect may be very low in the long term. But it will take time for producers and consumers to adjust. Tim Martin of JD Wetherspoon is well advanced in that process so you can see just how easy it will be to adapt.

In summary, investors should be looking at their current portfolios and how they might be impacted by Brexit now, if they have not already done so. There will clearly be winners and losers from the break with Europe and investors should not rely on any last-minute deal with the EU even if Boris is expecting one. Any solution may only be a temporary fix and the policies suggested above of international diversification are surely wise regardless of the political outcome.

Note: the author holds some of the stocks mentioned.

Roger Lawson (Twitter: https://twitter.com/RogerWLawson )

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