AIC Calls for KIDs to be Suspended

The Association of Investment Companies (AIC) have called for KIDs to be suspended. KIDs are those documents devised by the EU that were aimed at giving basic information on investment funds – and that includes investment trusts which the AIC represents.

It was a typical piece of badly implemented EU regulation even if the motive was worthy. But KIDs give a very misleading view of likely returns from investment funds. Whoever designed the performance rating system clearly had little experience of financial markets, and neither did they try it out to see what the results would be in practice. Similarly, if they had bothered to consult the AIC or other bodies representing collective funds, or experienced investors as represented by ShareSoc, they would have realised how misleading the results might be.

It also imposes costs on investment managers and on brokers who have to ensure their clients have read the KID before investing – even if they are already holding the fund/shares or have invested in it previously. This means for on-line brokers we now get a tick box that we have to click on which is simply tedious. I just click on them automatically because if I intend to buy an investment trust there is a great deal of information available elsewhere in the UK and the KID does not add anything of use in my opinion.

I think KIDs should be scrapped rather than just suspended. They serve little useful purpose and just add a costly bureaucratic overhead. This is the kind of nonsense that Brexit supporters are keen to get rid off when we do finally get out of the EU monster. But will we if Mrs May gets her way?

The AIC press release is here if you want more information: https://www.theaic.co.uk/aic/news/press-releases/aic-calls-for-kids-to-be-suspended

Roger Lawson (Twitter: https://twitter.com/RogerWLawson )

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Brexit, Abcam, Victoria and the Beaufort Case

Another bad day for my portfolio yesterday after a week of bad days last week when I was on holiday. Some of the problems relate to the rise in the pound based on suggestions by Michel Barnier that there might actually be a settlement of Brexit along the lines proposed by Theresa May. This has hit all the companies with lots of exports and investment trusts with big holdings in dollar investments that comprise much of my portfolio. But a really big hit yesterday was Abcam (ABC).

Abcam issued their preliminary results yesterday morning. When I first read it, it seemed to be much as expected. Adjusted earnings per share up 27.1%, dividend up 17.1% and broker forecasts generally met. The share price promptly headed downhill and dropped as much as 32%, which is the kind of drop you see on a major profit warning, before recovering to a drop of 15.2% at the end of the day.

I re-read the announcement more than once without being able to identify any major issues or hidden messages that could explain this drop. The announcement did mention more investment in the Oracle ERP system, in a new office and other costs but those projects were already known about. Indeed I covered them in the last blog post I wrote about the previous Abcam AGM where I was somewhat critical of the rising costs (see https://roliscon.blog/2017/11/15/abcam-agm-cambridge-cognition-ultra-electronics-wey-education-and-idox/ ). The Oracle project is clearly over-budget and running behind schedule. A lot of these costs are being capitalised so they disappear from the “adjusted” figures.

The killer to the share price appears to have been comments from Peel Hunt that the extra costs will reduce adjusted earnings by 9% based on reduced margins. The preliminary results announcement did suggest that the adjusted EBITDA margin would likely be 36% as against the 37.8% that was actually reported for last year. Revenue growth of 11% is expected for the current year so even at the reduced margin that still means profits will grow by about 5%. That implies only a slight reduction in adjusted e.p.s. on my calculations which implies a prospective p/e of about 34. That may be acceptable for such a high-quality company with an enviable track record (which is why it is one of my larger holdings) but perhaps investors suddenly realised that the previous rating was too high and vulnerable to a change of sentiment. That realisation seems to be affecting many highly rated go-go growth stocks at present.

The excessive IT project costs are of concern but if the management considered that such investment (£33 million to date) was necessary I think I’ll take their word on it for the present. At least the implementation of the remaining modules is being done on a phased approach which suggests some consideration has been given to controlling the costs in the short term.

I attended the AGM of another of my holdings yesterday – Victoria (VCP). They manufacture flooring products such as carpets, tiles, underlay and also distribute synthetic flooring products (I think that means laminates etc). There was a big bust-up at this company back in 2012 in which I was involved. The company was loss making at the time but some major shareholders decided they wanted a change or management and lined up Geoff Wilding who is now Executive Chairman. After an argument over his generous remuneration scheme and several general meetings, it was finally settled. After meeting Geoff I decided he knew more about the carpet business and what was wrong with the company than the previous management and therefore backed him – a wise decision as it turned out. Since then, with aggressive use of debt, he has done a great job of expanding the business by acquisition and this has driven the share price up from 25p to 760p. Needless to say shareholders are happy, but there were only about half a dozen at the AGM in London.

I’ll cover some of the key questions raised, and the answers, in brief. I asked about the rise in administration costs. This arises from the acquisitions and investment in the management team apparently. I also questioned the high amortisation of acquisition intangibles which apparently relates to customer relationships capitalised but was assured this was not abnormal. This is one of those companies, a bit like Abcam, where the “adjusted” or “underlying” figures differ greatly to the “reported” numbers so one has to spend a lot of time trying to figure out what is happening. It can be easier to just look at the cash flow.

Incidentally the company still has a large amount of debt because that has been raised to finance acquisitions in addition to the use of equity placings. In response to another question it was stated that the policy is to maintain net debt to EBITDA at a ratio of no more than 2.5 to 3 times. But earnings accretion is an important factor.

Geoff spent a few minutes outlining his approach to acquisitions and their integration which was most revealing. He talked a lot of sense. He will never ever buy a failing company. He wants to buy good companies with enthusiastic management. Thereafter he acts as a coach and wants to avoid disrupting the culture. He said a lot of acquisitions fail as people try to change everything wholesale. One shareholder suggestion this was leading to a “rambling empire” but the CEO advised otherwise.

The impact of Brexit was raised, particularly as there is nothing in the Annual Report on the subject. Were there any contingency plans? Geoff replied that if it is messy it will help Victoria as a lot of carpet is made on the continent and a fall in sterling will also help. He suggested they have lower operational gearing than many people think but obviously they might be affected by changing customer confidence. The CEO said that Brexit is on his “opportunity list”, not his “problem list”.

A question arose about the level of short selling in the stock which seems to have driven down the share price of late. Geoff suggested this was a concerted effort by certain hedge funds but he was confident the share price will recover.

Clearly Geoff Wilding is a key person in this company so the question arose about his future ambitions. He expects to do 2, 3 or 4 acquisitions per year and life would be simpler if he didn’t do so many. He tends to live out of a suitcase at present. But he still hopes to be leading the company in 5 year’s time.

In summary this was a useful meeting and I wish I had purchased more shares years ago but was somewhat put off by the debt levels.

Lastly, there was a very interesting article by Mark Bentley on the Beaufort case in the latest ShareSoc newsletter (if you are not a member already, please join as it covers many important topics for private investors). It seems that the possible “shortfall” in assets was only 0.1% of the claimed assets with only three client accounts unreconciled. But administrators PWC and lawyers Linklaters are racking up millions of pounds in fees when the client assets could have been transferred to other brokers in no time at all and at minimal cost. An absolute disgrace in essence. Be sure you encourage the Government, via your M.P., to reform the relevant legislation to stop this kind of gravy train in future.

Roger Lawson (Twitter: https://twitter.com/RogerWLawson )

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Trump Impeachment and No Deal Brexit Planning

Donald Trump has suggested that if he was impeached the stock market would crash and everyone would become poorer. And make no mistake, if the US market crashes then so will other worldwide stock markets including the UK as there is a high correlation between international stock markets.

Is that likely if he was impeached? No it is not. Stock markets can be remarkably immune to political crises. Just look at the negligible impact of the turmoil in the UK as politicians debate Brexit and there is the major threat of a very left-wing Government. What moves stock markets is economic crises, not political ones. Changing the US head of state would have little impact on the US economy.

In any case, the chance of impeachment looks relatively low. Paying hush money to past contacts is not a crime unless campaign funds were misused which currently appears unproven.

In the short term there is perhaps more threat to the UK stock market from a “no deal” Brexit. Having had a quick read of the papers published yesterday by the Government on planning for such, I am not panicking (see https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/how-to-prepare-if-the-uk-leaves-the-eu-with-no-deal#money-and-tax ). The regulatory issues can be accommodated without too much difficulty. What concerns me more is that if customs facilities are not improved well in advance, we might have long queues of vehicles on the motorways here in Kent.

Meanwhile Chancellor Philip Hammond has been stirring the Brexit debate pot with a letter to the Treasury Select Committee which includes this statement: “This January provisional analysis estimated that in a no deal/WTO scenario GDP would be 7.7% lower (range 5.0%-10.3%) relative to a status quo baseline. This represents the potential expected static state around 15 years out from the exit point.”

Anyone who thinks they can forecast the economy so far as 15 years ahead is plain bonkers in my opinion. Economists don’t manage to accurately forecast the UK economy one year ahead let alone 15. Such long-range forecasts are always based on numerous assumptions, most of which are undermined by unforeseen events which have not been taken into account. The Chancellor also forecast that Government borrowing might increase by £80 billion a year because of the reduced GDP by 2033 unless spending or taxation was changed. All this looks like scaremongering to me of the worst kind.

I may favour doing a deal with the EU along the lines of Mrs May’s proposals to assist with trade, but having a no-deal Brexit does not scare me.

Roger Lawson (Twitter: https://twitter.com/RogerWLawson )

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Hedging Against Brexit

As we edge towards an abrupt Brexit as agreement with the EU has turned into a game of chicken, it’s worth considering some options. Or as my M.P. Bob Neill said about divorce on Twitter “the current system of divorce creates unnecessary antagonism in an already difficult situation” (he was talking about personal divorce in the UK as head of the Justice Committee but our EU divorce is looking very similar – acrimony is the word for it).

Perhaps the Prime Minister will find a way through to a sensible settlement now she is reported to have personally taken charge of the matter. But as investors we should not rely on such a chance.

One solution is simply to move your share investments into companies that are listed overseas and do most of their business elsewhere than the UK. Don’t wish to buy overseas companies directly? Simply buy one of those “global” investment trusts or trusts focused on particular sectors – Europe, the USA, China, India, et al. Or ensure you invest in UK companies with large exposure to overseas markets other than the EU – there are lots of those.

One aspect that caught my attention this week was the suggestion that the UK should stockpile food and medicines to ensure there were no shortages. But taking food alone, fresh food does not generally keep for very long unless you have a refrigerated warehouse. Even then there are limits. As one supermarket chief was reported as saying in the FT today that it was “ridiculous” and showed “complete naivety”. The reason is simply that supermarkets and their suppliers operate “just in time” systems where deliveries often depend on overnight shipping of goods from Europe. Likewise car manufacturers and other engineering companies rely on complex supply chains that depend on the same “just in time” processes and very quick delivery times. There is a solution to this problem which is to store more items. Non-perishable goods can be stored for a very long time to provide a buffer to the flows of goods. One hedge tactic might therefore be to invest in warehousing companies – Segro and Tritax BigBox REITs come to mind (I own them), although Lex in the FT suggested today that “optimism is already baked in” to the share price of Segro after their interim results announcement. The share prices of those companies have been driven by the internet shopping boom where goods are held in warehouses rather than shops, and rapid delivery is essential. More warehouse demand caused by Brexit might add another wave of warehouse building and increase rents.

When it gets nearer the date next March for Brexit, perhaps we should be doing some personal hoarding of French cheese, Dutch salami and German sausages to guard against short-term supply chain disruptions, but I doubt I will be panicking. UK producers can gear up and many other suppliers in the rest of the world will suddenly find they are much more price competitive. Tariffs on imports of food from outside the EU can currently be very high (e.g. an average of 35% on dairy products which is why you don’t see much New Zealand or Canadian cheese in the shops lately – see https://www.ifs.org.uk/uploads/publications/bns/BN213.pdf for details).

That does not mean of course that food will be much cheaper as the UK Government might impose some tariffs to protect our own farmers, but you can see that it is quite possible that the supply chains will rapidly adapt once we are outside the EU regime. But long haul supply lines will require more warehousing and more dock facilities.

Or our Government could take the Marie Antoinette approach to food shortages – “let them eat cake” she said, or “let them buy British products” instead perhaps. Was that not a past Government campaign which could be revived? Such “Buy British” campaigns ran in the 1960s and 1980s to inform my younger readers. I am of course joking because so far as I recall they had little public impact. They did not have any influence on the preference to buy German or Japanese cars, although many of the latter are now made in the UK. But in a new post-Brexit world we should expect some surprises and the need to change our habits.

One joker suggested we might need to eat more non-perishable food, i.e. tinned peaches rather than fresh. But that just shows that there are ways around every problem. If the current heat wave persists we will of course be able to grow our own peaches. But betting on the weather is as perverse as betting on the outcome of Brexit. All I know is that we are likely to survive it. Hedging your bets is the best approach.

Roger Lawson (Twitter: https://twitter.com/RogerWLawson )

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Brexit and Other News

It’s been a busy few days even if stock market news is thinning out now we are into summer. The white paper outlining how Theresa May’s cabinet (at least those who are left) would like to do a deal with the EU has been published. I advised my followers via Twitter to read it rather than simply read the media commentary on it which tends to be slanted based on the writer’s emotions to “leave” or “remain”. You can find the white paper here: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/the-future-relationship-between-the-united-kingdom-and-the-european-union

Needless to say I have taken my own advice, and read it all. As a supporter of Brexit primarily because I think it is necessary to regain democratic control of our laws, I think it gives me most of what I was looking for.

On goods and agri-products it does mean that we will be adhering to EU standards but is that a major problem? It will ease trade if we do so, just as we adhere to internationally agreed standards in some areas. I do not see that it will necessarily thwart any free-trade agreements with the USA or any other country, regardless of what Trump says. A free trade agreement is primarily about having no tariff barriers but there are bound to be issues about technical standards. For example, does Mr Trump expect the UK to accept US cars built to US technical standards for us to get a free trade deal with the USA? If he does then we would risk becoming a poodle of the USA rather than the EU. That makes no sense when we are much closer to the EU, already conform to their standards in many areas, and do more trade with them. Some Brexiteers argue that we should not be a poodle of either of course, but for us to start setting our own standards and enforcing them would be a massive task in the short term. Likewise continuing to adhere to EU standards on employment rights and competition law, at least for some time, does not seem totally unreasonable even if the European Court of Justice might give rulings on issues that relate to them.

Whether the EU will accept Mrs May’s proposals is far from certain. The proposed customs arrangements where we collect EU tariffs on goods coming into the UK that are destined for EU countries seems particularly problematic. Is that workable in practice and at reasonable cost? And the refund arrangements for goods that do not get forwarded might be a recipe for large scale fraud I suspect.

So on the whole, I am supportive of the white paper’s proposals if in any negotiation with the EU no more is conceded. I hope Donald Trump gives Mrs May some advice on hard bargaining while he is here.

But as I said before, read the white paper and make up your own mind. Your comments are welcomed.

How Not to Run an AGM

On Wednesday I attended an AGM of an EIS company named British Smaller Country Inns 2 Plc (one of four similar companies). The directors have managed to turn my investment of £2,400 into £670 over 12 years (based on the latest estimate of net assets). I think the directors are fools for not trying to exit the pubs market years ago and this AGM gave other examples of their incompetence. Firstly the Chairman, Martin Sherwood, does not know how to run the voting at an AGM according to the Companies Act. He announced a “show of hands” vote but then proceeded to add the submitted proxy votes to the count of raised hands before declaring the result. In essence you can only take into account the proxy votes if a poll is involved in which case the show of hands vote is ignored. Mr Sherwood did not understand this point when I raised it.

I also raised the fact that the company had sent out from it’s email address an “invite” that was clearly “phishing” of some kind. When I raised this at the time he said the company had been “hacked”. Bearing in mind the email had been sent to a number of shareholders, and probably everyone in their email contact list when that could be thousands of people, I asked whether they had reported it to the Information Commissioners Office (ICO)? Who are they, never heard of them, was the response at the AGM. Well for Mr Sherwood’s information and everyone else, if there is a significant leakage of personal information, then it should be reported to the ICO (see https://ico.org.uk/for-organisations/report-a-breach/ ). This is a legal requirement since the 25th May. It simply astonishes me that a director of a Plc is not familiar with the ICO and their responsibilities under the GDPR regulations.

As there is only one pub remaining to be sold in British Country Inns 2, after which the company is likely to be wound up, I may get an exit within a year or so and will then be able to claim “loss relief”. Shareholders in the other linked companies are not so fortunate as they may take longer to reach wind-up. Originally I did not invest directly in this EIS company but via a fund. I am now very wary about EIS fund offerings. How many really show a profit rather than just provide a vehicle for tax refunds?

Proven Growth & Income VCT

After the above AGM I moved on to the Proven Growth & Income VCT (PGOO), another tax relief focused vehicle but with a much better track record. In this case I am at least showing a profit even ignoring the generous tax reliefs. Total return last year was 4.35% according to my calculations, but only 2.7% according to the company. I queried the difference and it’s probably accounted for the fact they are calculating it on the mid-year average asset value when I do it on the year start figure. Total return (change in net asset value per share plus dividends paid out) is the only measure to focus on for VCTs and other investment trusts.

Not much to note at this AGM with only 4 ordinary shareholders present. I queried the length of service of the directors, with 2 having served more than 9 years. They are not apparently in any hurry to refresh the board however.

The manager said it was difficult to find new deals – a “wall of money” going onto companies that would qualify for VCT investment. But they are doing more marketing to raise awareness of their company.

Oxford Technology VCTs

Yesterday I attended the AGMs of the Oxford Technology VCTs in Oxford (all four of them) who are a very different beast altogether with a very disappointing track record since formation. Figures for total return (after tax relief) were given as 107.4, 52.9 122.2 and 82.9 respectively since foundation. As manager Lucius Cary said in his presentation, “not a great result – not brilliant but not a disaster either”. They have had some disappointments and a lack of really big hits which one needs when investing in early stage technology companies. But clearly many investors attending were unhappy with several suggestions for winding-up the companies. That was particularly vociferous for OT4 where there is no problem with investors having claimed capital gains roll-over relief.

The directors, who were all changed not so long ago, suggested wind-up would be difficult. They also think there is value to be realised that would be lost in any “fire sale”. They recognize these VCTs are too small and with no major new investments being made and no fund raising likely, they are aware of the strategic issues. But they are apparently looking at possibly doing a similar deal to that done by the Hygea VCT who appointed a new, experienced manager to raise a “C” share fund. That company has been renamed the Seneca VCT accordingly.

We had presentations from three of their investee companies: Ixaris (electronic payments business), Scancell (a listed pharma company) and Select (printer management software). The last one was somewhat interesting as I am familiar with the sector from my past career. But Select used to be a company that had its own products and IP but seemed to have turned into a distributor of other people’s products. Distributors are not valued highly and in the presentation the typical problems of being a distributor became apparent – they lost money last year due to a change in the relationship with their major supplier to their disadvantage.

Scancell and Ixaris are both major proportions of the portfolios so a lot depends on their future results. Scancell result is very dependent on the outcome of clinical trials which won’t be available until 2019. But it was mentioned that one analyst values then at 55p when the current market price is 12p.

The presentation from Ixaris was by David Sear via Skype who was appointed Chairman a year ago. They also changed CEO a week ago. Note: for those who saw a presentation by LoopUp recently at the Amati AIM VCT agm where one member of the audience suggested that everyone should use Skype as it works fine, this latest event was a good demonstration of why Skype is not fit for business use – audio out of synch with video, download delays, etc.

I have to admit to knowing a lot about Ixaris as I was a founder investor 14 years ago and still hold a few shares directly. It has been slow progress, although revenue has been increasing and they are near EBITDA profitability. The new management team does seem to be improving the business but it was suggested that a “possible liquidity event” was 2 years away and it might be via a public flotation. But the bad news was Sear’s mention of a contractual issue with Visa for their Entropay pre-paid card service. Incidentally if you want a pre-paid card for security reasons then the Entropay service is a good one. Ixaris do have a second major division though that seems to be doing well.

Some of the other investee companies were covered in brief, and they do appear to have prospects in some cases. But Plasma Antennas for which there were high hopes at one time has been written off.

When it came to the votes, all the resolutions were passed on a show of hands, including re-election of all the directors, and perhaps even more importantly on the votes to continue with the companies, including even on OT4!

It was an educational AGM and my conclusion is that the directors are actually doing the right things with these problem companies. These VCTs are trading a high discounts to NAV, partly because there are no company share buy-backs unlike in many VCTs. But it would be a brave investor to buy the shares in the market. I only have a small holding in one of them.

K3 Business Technology (KBT), MaxCyte (MXCT), Eservglobal (ESG) and FairFX (FFX)

On Wednesday I attended presentations on the above four companies at the ShareSoc Growth Company Seminar in London. The last of those four I hold some shares in, and at least they made a small profit last year whereas all the others reported losses. With AIM companies, as the private equity world often says, you have to kiss a lot of frogs before you find a prince.

K3 showed the same problems historically as in Select mentioned above. Being a distributor is not an easy life and it’s difficult to make money doing that. But new management is changing the focus which may improve matters. Maxcyte is a typical pharma company and I never understand the technology in these businesses. I think you need a degree in biochemistry to even get to grips with developments in the sector. I have no idea whether it will come good in the end. Eservglobal seem to be moving from a mobile payment offering to focus on “Homesend” – sending money internationally more quickly and at lower cost than traditional banks can do. Earthport is a similar business I believe and that has not yet been reporting profits.

FairFX has a number of electronic money/payment offerings with the latest being a “business” account for SMEs. That might be very attractive to the large numbers of such companies. I have seen this company present before and the message is always clear and the questions answered well whereas the other companies presenting failed to convince me.

An eventful week, compounded by stock market volatility. Summer is the time to pick up bargains and sell the over-hyped stocks when buyers depart for their holidays.

Curtis Banks

One final item; I seem to be having some payment problems with Curtis Banks (an AIM listed company) who manage one of my SIPPs that is in drawdown. They took over a business called Pointon York and since then there have been delays in payments, or in one case two payments made in error. Reviews of the service, including comments from employees on the web seem somewhat poor. If anyone else is having problems with them, please contact me.

Roger Lawson (Twitter: https://twitter.com/RogerWLawson )

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Brexit – Good or Bad?

Prime Minister Theresa May convinced her ministerial colleagues to back her Brexit vision, but now our Brexit negotiators David Davis and Steve Baker have resigned and there are grumblings from the “hard” Brexit wing of the Conservative Party. Like no doubt many Brexit supporters I am somewhat puzzled by this outcome mainly because it is not at all clear what the plan is in detail, nor what the ramifications are. But it’s worth reading the letter sent by Mrs May in response to David Davis’s resignation letter. It included these words:

“At Chequers on Friday, we as the Cabinet agreed a comprehensive and detailed proposal which provides a precise, responsible, and credible basis for progressing our negotiations towards a new relationship between the UK and the EU after we leave in March. We set out how we will deliver on the result of the referendum and the commitments we made in our manifesto for the 2017 general election:

  1. Leaving the EU on 29 March 2019.
  2. Ending free movement and taking back control of our borders.
  3. No more sending vast sums of money each year to the EU.
  4. A new business-friendly customs model with freedom to strike new trade deals around the world.
  5. A UK-EU free trade area with a common rulebook for industrial goods and agricultural products which will be good for jobs.
  6. A commitment to maintain high standards on consumer and employment rights and the environment.
  7. A Parliamentary lock on all new rules and regulations.
  8. Leaving the Common Agricultural Policy and the Common Fisheries Policy.
  9. Restoring the supremacy of British courts by ending the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice in the UK.
  10. No hard border between Northern Ireland and Ireland, or between Northern Ireland and Great Britain.
  11. Continued, close co-operation on security to keep our people safe.
  12. An independent foreign and defence policy, working closely with the EU and other allies.

This is consistent with the mandate of the referendum and with the commitments we laid out in our general election manifesto: leaving the single market and the customs union but seeking a deep and special partnership including a comprehensive free trade and customs agreement; ending the vast annual contributions to the EU; and pursuing fair, orderly negotiations, minimising disruption and giving as much certainty as possible so both sides benefit.

What exactly are the moaners complaining about if that deal can be achieved? Their concerns seem to be focused on points 5 and 6 above. Will adopting common product standards (or whatever EU standards they might determine subject to UK Parliamentary consent) really hobble the UK and make it difficult for us to negotiate trade deals with other countries? I do not see why – it just means that exporters to the UK will need to comply with UK/EU regulations just as UK exporters to the USA now have to comply with US products rules and regulations. What is so difficult or damaging about that?

Note that only industrial and agricultural products are covered by these proposals. Services are not so such matters as financial regulations where the EU has been particularly inept will presumably fall into abeyance unless we decide to conform. But such phrases as “A commitment to maintain high standards on consumer and employment rights and the environment” do need explaining more – does this mean we have to accept EU regulations or what in those areas?

With those reservations otherwise my view is that if Mrs May can achieve her objectives this would look to me to be a reasonable outcome as it will meet the main objectives desired by Brexiteers. Sovereignty and the ability to lay down our own laws and regulations in most areas and in a democratic way will be returned to us. Would anyone care to explain to me why it is otherwise?

But whether these proposals can be agreed with the EU is another matter of course. Perhaps David Davis has resigned because he sees the impossibility of getting their agreement to this “fudge”. The borderless objective in Ireland looks particularly problematic. We need a clearer explanation of how that might work in practice.

My conclusion therefore is that this might be a way forward, but the game of Brexit negotiations is a long way from being concluded.

Roger Lawson (Twitter: https://twitter.com/RogerWLawson )

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Learning Technologies AGM and Brexit

I went to the Learning Technologies (LTG) Annual General Meeting yesterday, only to find my son Alex was there also (we both hold the shares). So we did a joint report which can be found on the ShareSoc Members Network. What follows are a few particularly interesting points from it.

LTG was a workplace digital learning solutions provider up to the beginning of last month when it announced it was to buy PeopleFluent – a cloud based talent management platform. Chief executive Jonathan Satchell described the deal as “transformative” for LTG’s US presence and that is surely the case. He also noted that “learning and talent are closely aligned” with cross-selling opportunities adding possibilities for further growth.

When the formal business was considered the first resolution was to accept the annual accounts and directors report. This had a surprise vote of 56 million proxies against (12%). I asked why the large vote against a resolution that normally gets a high percentage “yes” vote. Chief exec Jonathan Satchell replied that ISS (a proxy advisory firm) had recommended shareholders vote against the resolution on the grounds that there was insufficient disclosure in the Directors remuneration report, and shareholders had not been given a chance to vote on directors’ remuneration. Jon felt the complaint by ISS was overblown, but that LTG had discussed the issue with ISS and will look to improve disclosure next year. Jon noted it was not necessary to hold a vote on remuneration although I pointed out it was preferable to do so and many AIM companies did have remuneration votes. ISS had also noted that the Chairman Andrew Brode was on the remuneration committee, which they didn’t like. Jon did say that Andrew would be more than willing to give this role up and so in the coming year Jon said to expect a change on this committee.

A shareholder asked if the £13.3m Civil Service contract was a one off. Jon replied that there is scope for a one year extension to the contract but at the moment the accounts are based on the contract ending with no extension.

I asked about the PeopleFluent acquisition and questioned the use of a “cash box” transaction as this ignores shareholder votes in prior resolutions. A cash box placing allows a company to issue new shares by bypassing pre-emption requirements – meaning without shareholder approval. It works by a company forming a new subsidiary into which it puts cash via a placing and then buys that shell, paying with shares priced at whatever level it deems suitable. In effect it sidesteps the legal requirements of Company Law, and the resolutions previously passed by shareholders re share issuance.

Jon replied that LTG was up against US private equity and it was felt this was the best way to get the right amount of funds needed in a timely fashion to give the highest quality offer LTG could make. Comment: with the Chairman and CEO holding over 45% of the shares any vote would have surely gone through so it may not be so prejudicial to shareholders interests. But it sets a bad legal precedent as I think such transactions should be made illegal. Apparently Numis, their Nomad/Broker, suggested they do this. Otherwise it was a placing with no open offer which prejudices private shareholders although the discount to the previous share price was minor.]

Jon talked about the recent Pluralsight IPO, a similar US business. The company lost $90m on $160m revenue. Valuation $2Billion. Comment: this is obviously a “hot” sector for investors.

Summary: The enthusiasm of the CEO for the future prospects of the business were very evident and this seems to have been communicated to shareholders in recent weeks. The share price has been motoring upwards so it’s now on a prospective p/e of 44 according to Stockopedia. Certainly the high recurring revenue feature of the PeopleFluent business is positive as I always like companies with high recurring revenues and I said that in the meeting. However there are significant risks in such a major acquisition of a US business where there may be cultural and management style differences. The business also seems to have some difficulties and they have already be making some management changes.

In addition to that the large civil service contract in the UK will probably not be extended – or at most by a year – so historic revenue may not be representative of future revenue, and in addition the change to adopt IFRS 15 (see page 12 of the Annual Report) will impact 2018 financial figures. The corporate governance and the way the placing was done are also negatives. In summary there are a number of negative aspects in this business and potential high risks from the acquisitions that have been made (not just the latest one). The enthusiasm of investors for this business might be ignoring the substantial risks now associated with it so investors should keep a close eye on the progress of the acquisitions and their associated restructuring.

But as always, I learned a lot about this business and the individuals involved from attending the AGM. There were less than a dozen ordinary shareholders at the meeting which is disappointing given the opportunity it provides to quiz the management.

Brexit: I have not said much on the hot topic of Brexit of late although it’s no secret that I am generally in favour of it. The regulations that have come out of Europe such as MIFID II, the Shareholder Rights Directive and GDPR might have had good intentions behind them but in practice the detail regulations that result have been horribly complex and bureaucratic. The result has been very high costs imposed on many businesses and often with ineffective results. The key problem has been bureaucrats in Brussels with little knowledge of the real world and the business environment in the UK designing regulations without adequate consultation (or ignoring feedback submitted) and producing gobbledygook which few people understand. GDPR had positive objectives but the law of unintended consequences has resulted in people receiving hundreds of pointless emails.

The latest example of ridiculous claims of the cost of Brexit was the statement by Jon Thompson the head of HMRC that the “maximum facilitation” (Max Fac) option could cost UK businesses as much as £20 billion per year. This is apparently based on the cost of filling out customs declarations (200 million per annum at a cost of £32.50 each, plus other form filling according to the FT). This seems to assume that forms are filled out manually when in reality that can be done by computer software surely. Business might also look to reduce the costs by bulking up orders, or simply choosing not to export or import, i.e. to do business in different ways or with different people.

Whether Max Fac is a sensible option it’s difficult to say without a lot more evidence but staying in the Customs Union simply to avoid a hard border in Ireland does not seem to make sense because it means our trading policies and practices will be dictated by the EU. That’s not what people voted for in Brexit. People voted for political and governmental independence. Many people accept there may be some extra cost involved as a result but scare stories about the costs are not helpful.

Roger Lawson (Twitter: https://twitter.com/RogerWLawson )

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