Summer Viewing – Albert Speer

It’s summer and I have no urge to undertake any serious reading or writing. But one interesting TV programme I happened to watch was an interview on the BBC by three historians with Albert Speer in 1971 – see https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episodes/m002fmbs/albert-speer . This was quite interesting as he was the German arms minister during the second world war and someone who kept the Nazi regime in power for far longer than it should have lived.

Speer has always been a fascinating character. How could someone who was clearly very intelligent manage to get involved in the regime of Adolf Hitler, and supported him almost to the end? It is still a puzzle which his interview does not altogether explain.

He did get convicted in the Nuremberg trials but only received a 20-year prison sentence when most of other leading Nazis were hanged. His escape can probably be put down to him admitting guilt and apologising for the nazi regime although he also denied knowledge of the holocaust.

He died of a stroke in London in 1981, allegedly in bed with a lady friend. There is a good biography of Speer on Wikipedia.

Roger Lawson (Twitter: https://x.com/RogerWLawson  )

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Summer Reading – Trump Style

With Donald Trump having such an influence on international events, I thought I had best get up to speed on his background and experience. So I have been reading the Art of the Deal first published in 2016 at 384 pages. Don’t let the length put you off as it’s quite an easy read.

It’s really the story of his life up until the date of him writing the book and covers how he achieved some success in property development in New York. His father was a businessman in the development of housing but Donald moved more up-market and into larger developments, particularly in Manhattan.

It’s interesting in how he got people to back him when he had little experience and few financial resources. He was clearly always keen to impress people by putting on a glossy front.

How much the book might tell you about his personality is not clear but in his second term as President he does seem to be acting mainly rationally and is attempting to solve some of the world’s problems – albeit with mixed success. It can do no harm to read this book and get some impression of Trump’s management style.

Roger Lawson (Twitter: https://x.com/RogerWLawson  )

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Maven Renovar VCT (MRV) – Requisition Request

The company has announced that it has received a requisition from Paul Jourdan, the former manager, to replace the board – see https://www.investegate.co.uk/announcement/rns/maven-renovar-vct-plc–mrv/receipt-of-requisition-request/8955955 .

As a shareholder in the company I have an interest in this matter. My immediate feeling is that I will need some convincing to back Mr Jourdan. This VCT has been one of the worst performing and from my records the total return in the last 3 years has been -22.2%, -22.6% and -2.4%. My records go back to 2005 and there have been several mergers and changes of name since then.

However I will wait to see the full arguments before coming to a conclusion on how I should vote on the requisition.

Roger Lawson (Twitter: https://x.com/RogerWLawson  )

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Nobody Likes a LISA

The Parliament Treasury Select Committee have published a negative report on Lifetime ISAs (LISAs). They say: “The Lifetime ISA’s (LISA) dual-purpose design may be diverting people away from more suitable products and putting part of their savings at risk”. See https://committees.parliament.uk/committee/158/treasury-committee/news/208057/complex-lifetime-isa-increases-risk-of-poor-financial-decisions/ for more details.

The AIC agrees with them and have issued this press release:

AIC CALLS FOR A RETHINK OF LIFETIME ISAS

– ISA regime should be simplified to encourage a culture of investment

The Association of Investment Companies (AIC) has responded to today’s publication of the Treasury Committee’s report on the Lifetime Individual Savings Account (LISA).

Richard Stone, Chief Executive of the Association of Investment Companies (AIC), said: “It’s time for a fundamental reform of the ISA regime. The ISA framework needs to be simplified so it encourages a culture of investment. This is vital to help ensure increased financial resilience and wealth, as well as making sure the regime delivers value for money for taxpayers.

“We share many of the concerns raised in the Treasury Committee’s report and agree that the dual purpose of the LISA could lead consumers to make poor asset allocation decisions. It’s particularly concerning that consumers may be using cash to save over the long term for retirement rather than accessing the stock market.

“The complexity of the product, identified by the Treasury Committee, is an issue for the ISA regime as a whole. We are calling on the government to use this opportunity for an overall simplification of the system and the creation of a single investment ISA.”

My opinion:

The ISA regime certainly needs simplifying to make it more attractive to investors and to reduce administration costs. Let’s do it!

Roger Lawson (Twitter: https://x.com/RogerWLawson  )

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The UK’s Modern Industrial Strategy

The UK Government has published its Industrial Strategy – see https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/the-uks-modern-industrial-strategy-2025 .  It claims the Industrial Strategy is a 10-year plan to increase business investment and grow the industries of the future in the UK. It says the Strategy will make it quicker and easier for business to invest and will provide the certainty and stability needed for long-term investment decisions, but this is mainly hogwash.

With politics in such chaos at present (it is uncertain who might win the next General Election) betting on stability in government would be rash. But it might be worthwhile to skim the executive summary. The document is short on specifics although it does point to certain things that the government intends to tackle – such as the burden of regulation, the speed of planning, the high cost of industrial electricity and the reduction in regulatory burdens to speed innovation – previous governments have had such objectives but have conspicuously failed to achieve them. Why? Because the political leadership has been weak and the civil service has been adept at resisting change. In addition we are a nation of “nimbys” – full of people who oppose revolution in any form.

Even when some change is supported, implementation tends to be abysmal, as has been highlighted by the recent debacle at HS2. Originally planned to run from London to Birmingham, Leeds and Manchester the last two arms have axed but the cost will still be more than £100 billion – a quite fantastic figure.

This is a management problem in essence but the Government thinks that throwing money at the problems will resolve the difficulties – such as a new £500 million “Local Innovation Partnership Fund”. Socialist governments are always adept at spending money but not on how to manage where it is spent.

In summary I have no hope that the latest “Industrial Strategy” will improve the UK economy.

Postscript: This is what the AIC had to say on the Government’s proposals, which I agree with: Richard Stone, Chief Executive of the Association of Investment Companies (AIC), said: “It’s encouraging to see the government recognise VCTs’ important role in the venture ecosystem. VCTs could do even more to support the government’s growth ambitions if they had greater freedom to invest in scale-ups. We’d like the government to increase the investment limits and abolish the age limits for VCT investments. This would allow VCTs to effectively mobilise capital to invest in more British companies with great growth potential.”

Roger Lawson (Twitter: https://x.com/RogerWLawson  )

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Assisted Dying Won’t Be Easy

The Assisted Dying Bill was passed in the Commons last week, but if you think that will make it easy, think again. Health Secretary Wes Streeting has said there is no budget for an assisted dying service. The Bill is not only complex but requires legal and medical advice to make sure you or your carers and doctors don’t make it invalid.

There is probably a business opportunity here that someone might wish to take up. The provision of low cost legal and medical advice to someone who wishes to invoke the new law is a service that is required. A register of doctors who are willing to assist would also be a good idea.

In the meantime, expect a rearguard action by those who oppose the Bill in the House of Lords with numerous impractical amendments put forward which will surely be rejected when the Bill returns to the Commons.

Don’t let us lose this opportunity to provide support to people who want to die.

Roger Lawson (Twitter: https://x.com/RogerWLawson  )

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Assisted Dying Bill Passes Third Reading in Commons

The Assisted Dying Bill passed by a majority of 22 votes in the Commons today. I note my M.P. Clive Efford did not vote – a black mark against him as I have always been a strong supporter of such legislation. The Bill may not be perfect but it is certainly much better than the current legal position.

The Bill will now go to the Lords for further debate and another vote on possible amendments.

I am more concerned about the complexity of the paths now created to get approval for an assisted death than all the objections invoked against the Bill. If I want to leave this world, I will be very unhappy if people get in my way. I have had a terminal kidney disease for over 30 years and I may have some years left but I don’t want to hang around unnecessarily. Death from my kidney disease may not be painful but other people suffer a great deal and unnecessarily.

I first read a good book on the subject called Final Exit by Derek Humphrey in about 1990 and have supported UK legislation on the subject and the organisation that promotes it ever since – see Dignity Campaign: https://www.dignityindying.org.uk/

BBC Report: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cd78nvn2r1yo

Roger Lawson (Twitter: https://x.com/RogerWLawson  )

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I’m Suffering from Shrinkflation

Dropped into my local petrol station this morning for a refill and as I often do at the same time, bought a Bounty Bar (coconut flakes in a chocolate coating made by Mars).

But it has definitely shrunk in size very considerably since two years ago. I haven’t checked the price changes (I don’t even look at the price of petrol), but I do object to them reducing the “sugar rush” I get from eating them. This is surely a big marketing mistake which should be reversed.

Maybe they’ll hope I’ll buy two instead of one? Or turn it into a bogof at a higher price?

Roger Lawson (Twitter: https://x.com/RogerWLawson  )

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New Market for Private Shares – or an Opportunity for Exploiting the Gullible?

The Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) have announced that PISCES, a new market for private (i.e. unlisted) shares will launch later this year. To quote from the announcement: “PISCES is a new type of platform where shares in private companies can be traded. It will open the door to more opportunities for investors, facilitating their access to growth companies. Private companies can tap into a broader range of investors and asset managers and PISCES offers exits for shareholders to sell up. As companies choose to stay private for longer, there is demand for investors to trade private company shares easily and efficiently in an organised marketplace. PISCES meets this demand by allowing secondary trading of these shares. Companies can set the floor and ceiling of share prices, and have a say over who can buy their shares”.

But will there be liquidity in the shares traded on this platform? And will investors get all the information required to make sound judgements about the merits of private companies?

There may just be big new opportunities to promote dubious companies by the wide boys who frequent financial markets.

See https://www.fca.org.uk/news/press-releases/fca-rings-bell-new-type-private-stock-market-growth-boost for more information.

The Investors Chronicle published an article last week entitled “The next 30 years of AIM”. In my view AIM has not been a success, particularly of late. Companies have been leaving AIM because of high listing costs and general reputational concerns (too many AIM companies have turned out to be run by dubious characters, with fraudulent accounts).

Although I personally have had some good successes investing in AIM companies, I have also had some failures which have offset the good ones. I now take great care about investing in AIM companies and never touch new IPOs.

How to fix AIM? Tougher listing rules are required such as longer track records.

Roger Lawson (Twitter: https://x.com/RogerWLawson  )

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Winter Fuel Payments, Disability Changes, Garden Review and JGGI Webinar

The  Government has backtracked on scrapping Winter Fuel Payments except for poor folks like me (I’m joking). See BBC report here: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/c5yxvdl4d0pt . But it just adds one more needless complexity to the tax system.

The Government is also working on reforming disability benefits which are horribly complicated and where they wish to reduce the total expenditure. As a disabled person with minor problems I don’t qualify for PIP but I do get an “Attendance Allowance” which is not means tested.

If you want to get an impression of how complicated are disability benefits there is a good article in the latest Disabled Motoring UK magazine on the subject. The system needs simplifying!

The entitlement to a Free Car and associated costs under the Motability scheme is also clearly getting out of hand. See this for how to qualify: https://www.citizensadvice.org.uk/benefits/sick-or-disabled-people-and-carers/help-for-disabled-travellers1/motability-scheme/getting-a-motability-car/ . Needless to say, I don’t qualify and the only contact I have had with someone who did was when a new scheme member ran into my vehicle after picking up her new car a few years ago. Exited a side road without looking or stopping. Seemed to confuse the foot pedals. She was very apologetic.

Our garden is looking very well now we have had some rain. Photo below.

The yellow-flowered plant is a bunch of Phlomis which is a hardy perennial. There is a purple variety which seems much less tough. The roses are mainly from David Austin and are good hardy ones with few diseases. Plants need to be tough to survive in our garden.

Yesterday I attended a webinar presented by JPMorgan Global Growth and Income Trust (JGGI) which I hold. First purchased in July 2022 and with an annual total return since of 8.5%. They run a global unconstrained portfolio of 50 to 90 stocks giving a yield of 4.27% (some paid out of capital gains) and with an ongoing charge of 0.43%.

It seems to be well managed and they certainly have a large investment research team of analysts.

I was positively impressed so I will continue to hold.

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