Tag: FTX

They Do Things Differently in the USA

The sentence of 25 years in prison by a New York court on Sam Bankman-Fried for the fraud he orchestrated at crypto exchange FTX should be compared to the weak handling of financial fraud cases in the UK. In England it takes years to get them into court, if they ever are, and any penalties are feeble in comparison.

The FTX case was perhaps an obvious case of fraud – using client’s money to prop up the business – but the legal system in England is clearly defective in comparison. The amount that disappeared was about $9 billion and it shows how far a glib talker can go.

The speed of the prosecution is also a lesson. From the collapse of FTX to conviction is only 2 years. The English legal system needs wholesale reform to make it more expeditious and more effective as a deterrent to financial crime. The English legal system is designed more to benefit lawyers, both in civil and criminal cases, rather than ensure justice is obtained swiftly.

Previous comments: https://roliscon.blog/2023/11/03/sam-bankman-fried-found-guilty

Roger Lawson (Twitter: https://twitter.com/RogerWLawson  )

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Regulating Cryptoassets

The FCA has published a consultation document on the regulation of cryptoassets – particularly stablecoins in the first instance. It should be of interest to anyone investing in cryptocurrencies or considering doing so. To quote from it:

5.9 If a cryptoasset custodian were to fail today, the lack of a clear regulatory framework could result in uncertainty that would likely cause harm to clients through delays in the return of assets, extra costs or, worst of all, loss of their assets. Without clear regulatory standards to which cryptoasset custodians are required to adhere, cryptoassets may not be safeguarded adequately, which may lead to losses should the cryptoasset custodian enter insolvency (whether due to being treated as assets of the custodian, or through operational errors). In addition to the harm to clients, an outcome that results in uncertainty in insolvency may impact confidence in the overall regulatory regime.

5.10 This was shown in the recent failures of Celsius Network LLC and the FTX group, both of which provided cryptoasset custody services. According to its recent bankruptcy filing, Celsius had misappropriated client assets and at the time of its insolvency owed $4.7bn to customers. In the case of FTX, at least $8bn of client assets were reported to be missing. According to filings in the US bankruptcy court for Delaware on FTX Trading, FTX’s practices included ‘potential commingling of digital assets…use of an unsecured group email account as the root user to access confidential private keys and critically sensitive data…’ and ‘an absence of lasting records of decision-making.’

See https://www.fca.org.uk/publications/discussion-papers/dp23-4-regulating-cryptoassets-phase-1-stablecoins for details.

Roger Lawson (Twitter https://twitter.com/RogerWLawson  )

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CTY + JGGI AGMs and Market Trends

Yesterday saw a big improvement in my stock market portfolio valuation (up over 2% on the day). That makes a change from recent trends. Even some of the property REITs I hold picked up despite bank rate being unchanged.

In the last year I have been buying shares in BP and Shell on the basis that oil and gas will still be required for many years to come. This proved to be a big mistake on Tuesday when the share price of BP dropped by over 4% on results that were way worse than forecast. Shell did rather better later in the week but is it not very disappointing that analysts are unable to accurately forecast so much as a quarter ahead for such large and well researched companies? I am still in profit on my BP holdings but I will clearly have to review them.  

I attended the AGMs of City of London Investment Trust (CTY) and JPMorgan Global Growth and Income Trust (JGGI) this week. These were both “hybrid” meetings so I attended on-line. I’ll only cover them briefly as there were no surprises. CTY achieved a total return of 4.6% last year which slightly underperformed their benchmark. But they now have a 57 year record of dividend increases. I have held the shares since 2011 with limited trading in the meantime. Overall return has been 10.9% per annum which I consider satisfactory for a share I don’t need to constantly monitor and an on-going charge of only 0.37%. However stock selection last year had a negative impact.

They hold BP and Shell but sold BHP last year and bought Glencore instead. Long standing manager Job Curtis does not yet see a turning point in property.

The JGGI AGM was held in Edinburgh (they plan to alternate location) after the merger with Scottish Investment Trust. This was said to be “a transformational year” as the size of the trust has tripled due to the mergers and strong investment performance. They achieved a total return of 19.1% last year. Their aim is for long-term capital growth combined with a yield of 4%.

Their biggest holdings are companies like Amazon, United Health, Microsoft, CME, Coca-Cola, TSMC, Vinci, Uber and Mastercard and they have been buying Nvidia.

Questions were raised about them paying dividends out of capital, i.e. uncovered by earnings. But I see no problem with that as most of the profits arise from capital growth. But there were negative comments though from the lack of a resolution to clearly approve the dividend policy. I think they should improve that resolution next year.

Both the CTY and JGGI AGMs were useful events in terms of understanding the investment strategies and I am happy to continue holding the shares.

Lastly a postscript on the conviction of Sam Bankman-Fried (see previous blog post). Is it not astonishing that the SEC managed to prosecute and secure this conviction in just a few months when the FCA takes years to secure fraud convictions in the UK? The FTX bankruptcy filing took place in November 2022. There is clearly a much more effective legal framework in the USA to pursue, and hence deter, financial fraud.

What could have been a horribly complex legal case was dealt with quickly and efficiently in the USA.

Roger Lawson (Twitter https://twitter.com/RogerWLawson  )

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Sam Bankman-Fried Found Guilty

Yesterday Sam Bankman-Fried was found guilty of fraud in a New York Federal court over the collapse of FTX. This was the second largest crypto-currency exchange before it ceased trading with a shortfall as much as $10 billion in its accounts. Billions of client money had been lent to Alameda Research a proprietary crypto trading firm, also controlled by Bankman-Fried who could not repay it.

Bankman-Fried tried to talk his way out by giving evidence in his defence that he had consulted lawyers and they said it was OK to use client funds, allegedly.

This verdict is hardly surprising. I have been reading the book “Going Infinite”, subtitled “The rise and fall of a new tycoon”, by Michael Lewis. Clearly there were few controls in the business of FTX and people were hired with no experience – lack of financial knowledge or experience was seen as an asset!

The gullibility of the public to new get rich quick schemes is well demonstrated in the history of FTX. The UK Government has recently announced plans to regulate crypto markets which should surely be done as soon as possible.

The book mentioned is essential reading for anyone who wants to dabble in cryptocurrency and highlights some of the stupidities associated with Bankman-Fried.

Roger Lawson (Twitter https://twitter.com/RogerWLawson  )

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Market Trends, WeWork, Cryptocurrencies, Passive Saturation

Last week was a remarkably one for my stock market portfolio. Share prices were up on almost all my holdings. This was no doubt sparked by good news from the USA – inflation seems to be under control with CPI falling to 7.7%, and the war in Ukraine is looking up as Russia withdrew from the west bank of the Dnipro River. Stalemate in the latter war is looking increasingly likely which may encourage both Russia and Ukraine to reach some accommodation.

I also get the impression that stocks were being bought back in a panic after previous sales as they fell sharply in previous months. This particularly affected less liquid small cap and AIM stocks.

But this is surely only temporary relief from the gloomy economic prognostications. Interest rates in the UK still need to rise further as inflation is still high and real interest rates still negative. Political stability may help over the next few months but it looks like we are all going to be significantly poorer from aggressive tax rises. This will not help the UK economy one bit.

I watched an interesting TV documentary on WeWork yesterday. WeWork was essentially a company that rented out office desk space, i.e. it was a property company but ended up being valued as a high flying technology business valued at a peak $47 billion before it crashed. Led by Adam Neumann as CEO in a messianic style it developed into a cult which became further and further detached from reality. As profits were non-existent they redefined the word profit.

It’s a great example of how investors can be suckered into backing dubious companies led by glib promoters simply due to FOMO (fear of missing out). There is a good book on this subject entitled “The Cult of We: WeWork and the Great Start-Up Delusion” which I have ordered and may review at a later date.

Cryptocurrency exchange FTX became bankrupt last week. At the end it looked like a typical “run on a bank” as folks rushed to take their money out. FTX reportedly had less than $1bn in easily sellable assets against $9bn in liabilities before it went bankrupt. This has also affected other cryptocurrencies as traders take their money off the table.

Can cryptocurrencies survive? Only if backed by the state I would suggest. I am reading an interesting book – the Travels of Marco Polo which covers his time spent in the Mongol empire including China circa 1300. It describes how paper money was widely accepted in the Mongol empire which covered most of Asia at the time. But it was backed by gold or silver for which it could be exchanged. One advantage of their paper money was if you wanted a lower denomination note you could simply cut up a larger one. Paper currencies do rely on public confidence which is why state backing is so essential and also confidence that holdings are not going to be devalued by excessive printing of more money. Cryptocurrencies have tackled this issue in more than one way including the need for large power consumption to create new coins. But the whole structure still seems unsound to me.

An interesting article in the Investors Chronicle this week covered the subject of passive investing under the headline “Passive Saturation”. There has been concern expressed for some time that a high proportion of the stock market is held by index tracking funds that simply follow the herd. This might magnify trends and not relate to the reality of fundamentals in the companies they buy and sell. This was previously not thought to be a problem because the “passive percentage” of the market was estimated to be only 15%. But a new academic report suggests the real figure is more like 38%.

A very high passive percentage means that stock pickers can do well, and better than the indices as they ignore trends and look at the fundamental merits of companies. I prefer actively managed funds even if you do pay more for them in charges. Funds that rely solely on momentum may have done well historically but they are likely to exaggerate trends both up and down and the higher the percentage of the market held by passive funds, the more dangerous this becomes.

Roger Lawson (Twitter: https://twitter.com/RogerWLawson  )

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