The election of Cyril Ramaphosa as the President of the ANC suggests that the country may be taking a positive step forwards. Under Jacob Zuma South Africa has become riddled with corruption and “state capture” where assets are sold off to favoured parties. Whether Cyril Ramaphosa can become President of the country in due course remains to be seen but it is worth looking at his background.
He has a legal qualification and became a trade union activist. After being active in politics, including helping to develop the “Black Economic Empowerment” policy that affects any company operating in the country, he became a businessman. Indeed he was for a time Chairman of gold miner Pan African Resources (PAF) which I held shares in for a while. This is a company registered in the UK and they hold their AGMs in London, although I don’t recall Mr Ramaphosa ever turning up for one. But with this and his other business interests he should have learned something about business to offset his left-wing sympathies.
There are of course other businesses operating in South Africa that are registered in the UK and the risk of political interference is always at the back of investors minds. One I currently hold is Mondi which is actually dual-listed on both the London and Johannesburg stock exchanges. This means it is subject to regulation in both the UK and South Africa (the South African financial regulations are actually very good), but one disadvantage is that a withholding tax is payable on dividends. It holds its AGMs in London.
Mondi (MNDI) is a paper and packaging producer with interests in many countries. Its share price does seem to be affected to some extent by political events in South Africa and one gets the impression that the valuation if slightly lower than other packaging companies for that reason (e.g. a somewhat lower prospective p/e than D.S. Smith). Goldman Sachs recently upgraded Mondi to a “buy” with a 2200 price target.
So apart from wishing Mr Ramaphosa well, investors do need to take into account the political risks of investing in South Africa. But my experience has been positive to date with the ANC seeming to take care not to damage large businesses overtly. However, the general economic trends in South Africa under Zuma have not been good even though the per capita wealth of the country at $11,300 is still the highest in Africa (excepting Mauritius).
A sound economy, rational economic policies and the rule of law are the key to generating wealth. Compare the wealth of South Africans with that of Zimbabwe where it is estimated to be as little as $200!
Perhaps the moral is that politics does matter!
Roger Lawson (Twitter: https://twitter.com/RogerWLawson )
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