Tag: Sepsis

The Danger of Sepsis – Craig Mackinlay Returns

It was good to see the return of Craig Mackinlay M.P. to the House of Commons after surviving a bad attack of sepsis. But he did have to have all his legs and arms amputated – see https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-politics-69048172 . As I have pointed out before, sepsis is exceedingly dangerous and I was very lucky to survive it myself a few years ago. See https://roliscon.blog/2024/02/08/sepsis-and-how-to-diagnose-it/ . I did not need any amputations but I could not walk again for some weeks.

A lot of media coverage in the last few days has been on the failings in the NHS over the infected blood scandal and the inquiry into the Post Office Horizon scandal.

In both cases civil servants employed by the Government covered up the problems and effectively delayed action. Why is this allowed to happen? Unfortunately it is a fact of life that bureaucracies always defend themselves. Nationalisation of public services will always result in similar scandals – not all might be so bad as to cause so many deaths but financial detriment will always occur.

Competent management is what is required but that is hardly common in the NHS and from my experience of working for the Post Office many years ago I would say the same about that. In the NHS people get promoted on medical or academic qualifications, not on proven management or leadership competence.

Roger Lawson (Twitter: https://twitter.com/RogerWLawson  )

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Sepsis and How to Diagnose It

I have probably mentioned before that I nearly died from an attack of sepsis a few years ago. Spent two weeks in intensive care and even when out of that took some time to recover from intensive care neuropathy. Sepsis is an extremely dangerous condition which probably kills more people than common cancers.

To try and improve diagnosis (early diagnosis and treatment is extremely important) NICE has recently published new guidelines to assist healthcare professionals. But it is worth reading for anyone who looks after the young or elderly, or those with reduced immune systems. See https://www.nice.org.uk/guidance/NG51

Edison have now today published a report on a company named VolitionRX who are working on diagnostic tools for sepsis – see https://www.edisongroup.com/research/snaring-sepsis-with-early-nets-detection/33224/ . They say “Globally, it is estimated that c 50 million people develop sepsis each year (42% of which are children under five years of age), the condition is associated with a c 20–25% mortality rate and survivors are typically left with one or more long-term consequences. In the US, it is estimated that approximately 1.7 million adults develop sepsis annually, corresponding to c 350,000 deaths”. The report provides a good overview of the market for sepsis diagnostics and the need for better tools.

Roger Lawson (Twitter: https://twitter.com/RogerWLawson  )

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VolitionRX and Sepsis

Edison have published a report on the merits of a company named VolitionRX (NYSE:VNRX). This company is developing blood test diagnostics for diseases such as Sepsis.

Sepsis is an exceedingly dangerous infectious disease that causes multiple organ failure as I know from personal experience. A few years ago I almost died from it in Kings College Hospital. The Edison report states there are 42 million cases of Sepsis worldwide every year with 11 million deaths.

Diagnosing the disease is not easy as symptoms can be mixed and treatment with antibiotics can be delayed until it’s too late. A recently publicised case in the national media was of a teenager who died from it after a minor cycling accident. Her mother has campaigned for a right to a second medical opinion in the NHS but the key is to get the diagnosis right first time and without delay. VolitionRX may provide a solution.

Sepsis is a clinical condition that occurs when the body’s immune system overreacts to a bacterial infection and begins to damage its own tissues and organs. If not diagnosed and treated quickly, it can lead to severe, often life-threatening health complications.

I personally spent three weeks in hospital after some time in the intensive care unit and suffered from intensive care neurothapy as a result which meant I had to learn to walk again. Not an experience I would like to repeat. I hope this company is successful in validating a new diagnostic for sepsis where there is clearly a large unsatisfied need.

Whether such a business is a good stock market investment is not easy to judge. They have some competitors targeting the same sector. But anyone with an interest in sepsis will find the report of interest – see https://www.edisongroup.com/research/unravelling-the-web-of-nets-in-sepsis/31224/ 

Roger Lawson (Twitter https://twitter.com/RogerWLawson  )

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RIT Capital Partners, Foresight 4 VCT and Sepsis

RIT Capital Partners (RCP) is an investment trust that recently issued its interim report. As one of my longer standing holdings, first purchased in 2003 although I have reduced my holding of late, I read the report with interest. RCP has been a long-standing favourite of private investors having traditionally taken a somewhat defensive investment approach. But the portfolio is now most peculiar. It contains 8.8% of “quoted equities” but many of them are held as “swaps”, 27.7% in “long-only funds”, 19.7% in hedge funds and 0.6% in derivatives. There is 9.1% in direct private investments, 13.2% in private investment funds, 23.1% in “absolute return and credit funds”, 3.0% in “real assets” (which includes gold, silver, corn and soyabean futures) and 2.0% in Government bonds (with more swaps in there also). This is certainly an unusual portfolio to say the least.

Personally when I invest in a fund or an investment trust, I prefer them to invest directly – not pass the buck to some other fund manager. This trust has effectively become a “fund of funds” of late with a large proportion of its investments placed into other funds. Otherwise it appears to be hedging against armageddon.

The Chairman of the company is long-standing Lord Rothschild who is aged 82. When I have attended the AGM of this company I have never been very impressed by the way he handled the meeting or the responses to questions.

The total return net asset value performance in the half year was 3.2%, but 6.2% on share price. The current share price discount to NAV is actually at a premium of 6.8% according to the AIC and the dividend yield is 1.6%. Over ten years the total return (NAV) has been 103% when sector performance was 135%. So it’s not exactly been a great performer. I sold the remainder of my holding after reading the interim report.

Foresight 4 VCT

Another investment trust but of a very different nature is Foresight 4 VCT (FTF) which is of course a venture capital trust. It recently issued its Annual Report for the AGM due on the 11th October. I may attend it although my holding is very small.

The Annual Report does make interesting reading although it fails to mention a past complaint by some shareholders about the over-statement of reserves in the years 2013-2015 which resulted in an illegal dividend allegedly being paid. The auditor, KPMG, who still audits this company make no comment on this and neither do the directors in the Annual Report. But the Audit Committee report does mention that the company has received a letter from the FRC questioning the accounting policy for performance related incentive fees. The company has responded. Both issues are likely to be the subject of questions at the AGM no doubt.

This company has two very large holdings in its portfolio – Datapath and Ixaris. I have been very dubious about the valuations put on the latter company by this and other VCTs as I know quite a lot about the business. I used to be a director and still have a direct holding. This is particularly so after the disclosure by the Ixaris Chairman of the latest business challenges at the recent Oxford Technology VCT meeting.

I will be voting against the reappointment of KPMG as auditors at this company, against the sole director who is standing for re-election (is it not recommended that all directors of fully listed companies stand for re-election?), and against approval of the Report & Accounts.

But FTF did raise some more money this year and is investing in what appear to be interesting companies. One of their new investments has been in Mologic which is a medical diagnostic company. What sparked by particular interest was their product for rapid diagnosis of sepsis which I only narrowly survived a few years ago. Up to 50% of people who develop sepsis die from multiple organ failure, even though it can be treated with antibiotics. It is often misdiagnosed or treatment commenced too late, so a rapid diagnostic tool will be of great use.

Dr Hadiza Bawa-Garba was convicted of gross negligence manslaughter over the death of six-year-old Jack Adcock from sepsis but subsequently challenged being struck of the medical register. She won the latter legal case this week after a big campaign by doctors and a major crowdfunding exercise. Bearing in mind the other contributory factors, and the difficulty in spotting sepsis I consider the original conviction a gross miscarriage of justice. You can feel just slightly under the weather and next minute you are unconscious and in the intensive care unit as I know very well. Jack Adcock had other medical conditions that will not have helped.

There are 44,000 deaths from sepsis every year in the UK, and children are particularly at risk. It appears that cases of sepsis are rapidly rising although that might be due to better diagnosis. Even surviving it can mean life changing injuries. See https://sepsistrust.org/ for more information or if you wish to support a charity that is raising awareness of this deadly disease.

Roger Lawson (Twitter: https://twitter.com/RogerWLawson )

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