A Scam to Watch Out For

I am currently trying to sell a car I own as I am giving up driving (a Jaguar XE). So I listed it on Auto Trader.

I got a call from someone allegedly named Brian. He arranged to view the vehicle and I took him and a friend for a test drive (me driving). On the way back smoke appeared from under the bonnet.

I said I would need to get a second opinion on the vehicle condition and they then left but tried to call me again the next day. They clearly expected me to accept a low offer for the vehicle on the basis it was not fit for use.

This was almost certainly an attempt to scam me by damaging the vehicle and then making a low-ball offer. See the internet for details of the “dirty oil trick” which is apparently quite common where dirty oil is poured into the radiator water reservoir. See https://www.rac.co.uk/drive/news/motoring-news/oil-trick-scam-drivers/  

I am pretty sure there was no fault on the vehicle before the incident. But it will cost me as much as £1000 to have the vehicle checked and drained/flushed. I have reported this crime to the police.

Roger Lawson (Twitter: https://x.com/Drivers_London )

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Random Thoughts on a Bank Holiday

It’s a quiet public holiday today but I have a few things to talk about.

The financial media seem to be dominated at the present time by commentators who are forecasting doom for the UK economy. Bailouts by the IMF are forecast, rampant inflation and higher taxes because the Government is spending more than we can afford, or are raising in taxes.

That may be so although I never try to forecast national economics. Certainly higher taxes are eroding confidence in UK companies although fortunately many are more reliant on overseas businesses.

There were some interesting comments by John Baron in the Investors Chronicle this week. He has been reducing his exposure to equities in his “Growth Portfolio” and had this to say: “Apart from higher inflation, ever higher government borrowing across the western world is a factor [which has encouraged diversification into other asset classes]. Politicians need to face reality by cutting spending, which is growing faster than their economies can fund – in part due to ageing populations. For example, estimates suggest UK GDP would need to rise by 3 per cent every year in the coming decades to compensate. This will not happen. And taxes cannot keep rising. High government spending crowds out the private sector and, together with high taxes, stifles enterprise and economic growth…”

That’s a good summary of the current UK economy in my view.

But I am still looking to spend money personally – namely on a new laptop to replace my very old Windows 10 Lenovo one (purchased in 2021). Apart from it not being capable of running Windows 11, the battery now has a short life. The latest Lenovo Carbon X1 looks a good replacement and gets good reviews. I have been very happy with my old Carbon X1 so prefer to stick with the same supplier if possible.

I also have a Win 11 Desktop PC and a Samsung tablet I use for web browsing and book reading while in bed, so a new Lenovo laptop should keep me in IT kit for a few years.

If any readers have any comments on the above, please let me know.

Roger Lawson (Twitter: https://x.com/RogerWLawson  )

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Yet Another Major Accounting Error – WH Smith

This week WH Smith (SMWH) was yet another major public company who had to announce that it could not publish accurate accounts. To quote from their announcement on Thursday: “a current financial review has identified an overstatement of around £30m of expected Headline trading profit in North America. This overstatement is largely due to the accelerated recognition of supplier income in the North America division. WHSmith now expects Headline trading profit from the North America division for the financial year ending 31 August 2025 to be approximately £25m, down from previous market expectations of approximately £55m”.

The share price promptly collapsed by over 35%.

I am not a holder of the shares but those who do are probably feeling angry. Broker Peel Hunt cut their rating on the shares to “hold” but why would anyone want to hold shares in a company where you cannot trust the accounts, or trust the management who cannot publish accurate accounts? Certainly not me.

As I said in my book “Business Perspective Investing”, financial numbers are not important when picking shares for investment because all public company accounts cannot be trusted. But trust in the competence of management is certainly one aspect to consider when buying shares.

It will no doubt take a long time to rebuild confidence in WH Smith.

P.S. The most amusing thing about this event was that Investors Chronicle published a very positive article on the company in their 22-28 August edition headlined “This streamlined retailer is going global”. Presumably they went to press just before the bad news broke.

How does one protect against such events? Don’t plunge into buying a new holding all in one go. Stagger your investment until you have established confidence in the company and its management.

Roger Lawson (Twitter: https://x.com/RogerWLawson  )

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The Lawfare Problem – from Chris Philp

There were some interesting comments recently from Chris Philp, Shadow Home Secretary, on the problem of lawyers blocking democratic initiatives. They included these:

Constant lawfare from unscrupulous lawyers, using, or misusing, ECHR protections to thwart democratic mandates.

We’ve seen it with courts preventing successive governments from deporting foreign criminals and illegal immigrants. We’ve seen it with courts forcing governments across Europe to adopt stringent climate change measures that harm economic growth. We’ve seen it with the constant lawfare being used against our veterans, betraying those who’ve served our nation in uniform.

In short, we’ve seen judgements being handed down that undermine democratic mandates.

The Conservatives plan to set up a Commission to look into these issues and how UK law and the ECHR could be reformed.

This seems to be a very good idea to me. See Kemi Badenoch talking about these issues on YouTube here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QGm6IBgl_M4&t=51s

But as usual the problem is being driven by money. Stop the financing of trivial legal cases and the problem would quickly disappear.

Roger Lawson (Twitter: https://x.com/RogerWLawson  )

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Ukraine – Turning Out as Expected

The resolution of the war in Ukraine is very likely to turn out as I expected in March this year. Ukraine will need to concede some territory to obtain peace and Russia will obtain some of its historical domination over the eastern Ukraine. See my original blog post for more background on the history of Ukraine: https://roliscon.blog/2022/03/08/ukraine-a-more-balanced-view/

There may be face-saving defence guarantees given by the USA, UK and rest of Europe but only the USA has sufficient capability to make them stick. Ukraine never had sufficient military capacity to defeat Russia and the UK and the rest of Europe have wasted bags of money on pointlessly supplying arms to Ukraine.

Donald Trump may be bullying Zelensky to accept a peace deal he does not like but there is no point in continuing the war in the vain hope of victory. Ukraine should not be allowed to join NATO to which Russia would strongly object and would weaken the NATO alliance.

Let us settle the matter and move on with less pretence that even the USA and Europe combined can impose their will on Russia.

Roger Lawson (Twitter: https://x.com/RogerWLawson  )

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The Good News and the Bad

There are a couple of recent news stories worth commenting on:

Firstly Neil Woodford has been fined £5.9 million by the Financial Conduct Authority and his investment company £40 million for failings in managing the Woodford Equity Income fund which collapsed in 2019. Retail investors lost £billions as a result.

I fortunately was not invested in that fund and the result just seemed to be a case of poor risk management. Bearing in mind what Neil Woodford probably extracted from the fund in management fees during the period of his involvement he has surely got off lightly. He apparently intends to appeal the judgement of the FCA.

The other big news story was the decision by the FCA to launch a consultation on an investment scheme for those who might justify some compensation for car finance policies where the dealer’s commission was not disclosed. Drivers, including me, might get as much as £950 in compensation according to an article in The Times (I did finance the purchase of my previous Jaguar XF but not for my latest Jaguar).

But whatever is eventually agreed, it would be very damaging to those companies that provide car finance. Now I hold shares in several insurance companies so I could take a negative hit from that to offset any claim on my past car purchases. To my mind this is just ridiculous that suckers who overpaid for their car finance or insurance should be compensated.

I shall respond to the FCA consultation accordingly when it is issued.

Roger Lawson (Twitter: https://x.com/RogerWLawson  )

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The Origin of Covid-19? Matt Ridley suggests he knows.

Writer on scientific matters, Matt Ridley, has published an article in the Telegraph which tries to explain the likely origin. The virus is rapidly fading from the public’s minds but it did kill 20 million people and some are still dying from it with persistent symptoms in other cases.

It is important to identify the source of the virus because it could well happen again with even more devastating impacts. When scientists start manipulating genetic material, it is exceedingly dangerous.  His article is present here:  https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/0/covid-19-lab-leak-origin-most-likely-matt-ridley/ .

He starts the article by saying: “While attempts to identify a seafood market in Wuhan as the source of Covid-19 have failed to find proof, there is growing realization that the source might be the Wuhan Institute of Virology (WIV). In the period up to 2019, the WIV, in collaboration with EcoHealth Alliance (EHA) and other institutions, brought to Wuhan numerous bat viruses from the distant regions where viruses most similar to SARS-CoV-2 have been identified. They created genetically modified versions of viruses and tested them by infecting human cells and humanised mice, causing significant gains in infectivity and lethality in one known case. They did some of these experiments at inappropriately low safety levels”.

But it’s worth reading the whole article.

Genetic engineering can be a useful tool – there is even a GCSE on the subject. And there is a good recent example of curing a rare disease using CRISPR gene editing technology – see https://www.nih.gov/news-events/news-releases/infant-rare-incurable-disease-first-successfully-receive-personalized-gene-therapy-treatment

But it could clearly be misused with very deadly and dangerous consequences. It does need to be heavily regulated.

Roger Lawson (Twitter: https://x.com/RogerWLawson  )

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Preventing Fraud in Accounts – FRC Tightens Audit Rules

There have been repeated examples of the accounts of public companies being fraudulent in recent years. Wirecard was probably the latest and biggest example. I have seen examples of such misdeeds twice in my investment career in my own holdings although losses have been minimal in both cases, the last example being Patisserie (£95 million missing from their accounts). But I have avoided a lot of others where the losses to some investors have been enormous. There have simply been too many such cases for investors to avoid them all however careful you are in analysing the accounts of companies. There can often be hints that something is wrong, but in many cases the fraud is so well concealed it is very difficult to detect. In both the examples I mention, the cash that was claimed to be on the balance sheet was not there, which should be a simple thing for auditors to verify.

The Financial Reporting Council (FRC)) have announced that they are tightening up the rules followed by auditors to impose more responsibility on them for detecting fraud. In the past it was unclear that auditors had any responsibility to detect fraud and some have even denied it.

The FRC claim they are making the auditor’s obligations clearer – specifically to try and identify fraud. The FRC is running a public consultation on the proposed new audit standard which you can read about here: https://www.frc.org.uk/news/october-2020/consultation-on-revised-auditing-standard-for-the

It makes for interesting reading and it actually spells out the kind of problems that auditors should be looking for. In general the proposed changes to the audit standard make sense.

Will it solve the problem of too many frauds altogether? No for three reasons:

  1. Because audit work is bid for by audit firms, while companies pay their fees, there is a strong incentive by both parties to keep the cost of the audit as low as possible. This brings pressure to bear to not do more work than is absolutely necessary.
  2. Auditors cannot challenge management too much if they are going to retain the audit brief, and there is a tendency to build a cosy trusting relationship.
  3. Auditors are protected from being sued by shareholders for incompetence by the Caparo legal judgement, and their liability even to the company can be undermined by the contracts they require signing. In other words, the legal framework under which they operate enables them to escape responsibility for incompetence.

How might these problems be solved? It has been suggested that auditors be appointed by an independent body rather than by the directors of a company. Perhaps another solution might be to set up an independent fund that rewards auditors when they identify and report fraud, with big bonuses for the individuals that do so. That would give them a strong financial incentive to discover it.

That would provide a carrot. But the stick needs to be change in the regulatory framework and the law so that auditors cannot escape financial penalties when they do not do a competent job. A simple change would be to require audit contracts to be based on a standard set by an independent body such as the FRC and not written by auditors as at present.

I hope readers will respond positively to the consultation because I can see many objections from audit firms to the imposition of new obligations, however reasonable they appear to investors.

Roger Lawson (Twitter: https://twitter.com/RogerWLawson  )

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Surprise Offer for Earthport

Shareholders in payments company Earthport (EPO) must have thought they had woken up this morning in a dream. There is an agreed cash offer for the company from Visa at 30p when it was trading at 7p before Christmas.

I did hold Earthport in the past, but although revenue rose over the years profits consistently remained negative. Management changes and continual fund raising did not impress either. My last sale was at 32p in January 2016 for an overall small loss so I am glad I did not hold on.

Did they have some useful technology that Visa can employ? Perhaps so but this was clearly an offer management could not refuse.

Roger Lawson (Twitter: https://twitter.com/RogerWLawson )

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