Four Charged with Fraud over Patisserie Valerie Case

Four people have been charged over the fraud at café company Patisserie Valerie. Ordinary shareholders in the company were wiped out in 2018 after the accounts were shown to be fictitious.

More details here:  https://www.sfo.gov.uk/2023/09/13/sfo-charges-four-individuals-behind-patisserie-valerie-collapse/

A shame it has taken so long to actually bring charges which is not unusual in fraud cases.

Auditors Grant Thornton were also fined over their involvement in the case. Grant Thornton was fined £2.3m because it had “missed red flags” and failed to question information provided by management. A trivial fine in relation to the losses suffered by investors.

Roger Lawson (Twitter https://twitter.com/RogerWLawson  )

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BP CEO Departs

BP has announced that CEO Bernard Looney has notified the Company that he has resigned as Chief Executive Officer with immediate effect.

Why you may ask? It seems that he has had some personal relationships with colleagues in the past, not all of which he had disclosed to the company. No breach of the Company’s Code of Conduct was found after an investigation but more allegations have been received.

As an investor in BP, could I care whether Looney had some personal relationships? I do not. I am only concerned whether he has been doing a good job or not. So far as I can tell he has been. BP needs to manage a transition from being a big producer of oil and gas to a more mixed and lower carbon energy provider. This it seemed to have sensible plans to do.

This looks like a political witch-hunt of some kind. It’s not the first time that BP has lost its CEO due to inappropriate relationships. See the case of John Browne (now Lord Browne) in 2007 and his homosexual relationships. See Wikipedia for details.

The Telegraph had some amusing comments on the latest news. It said: “Mr Looney’s personal life was thrown into the spotlight last year when his ex-wife Jacqueline Hurst, a life coach, wrote about her marriage difficulties in her self-published book, How To Do You: the Life Changing Art of Mastering Your Thoughts and Taking Control of Your Life. In a chapter on anxiety which is understood to reference her marriage to Mr Looney, Ms Hurst claimed that her husband only married her to get ahead at BP. Ms Hurst, who has been married twice, wrote: When my husband ended our marriage suddenly and without warning via a WhatsApp message, I was naturally devastated.”

It seems life at the top of this FTSE-100 company is like any good soap opera.

Roger Lawson (Twitter https://twitter.com/RogerWLawson  )

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Investments Versus Cash

Folks are back from holiday, the heatwave is over and it’s time for some serious consideration of the investment scene. One question is whether it is best to stay in cash (or cash equivalents such as bonds that are paying a high interest rate) or buy some stock market shares. An article by Ian Cowie published by the AIC makes the case for investments versus cash – see https://theaic.turtl.co/story/compass-september-2023/page/3 . But the AIC does of course have a vested interest in promoting the latter.

With interest on bank deposits rising even instant access saving accounts are paying up to 5% p.a. and National Savings & Investments are now offering a market-leading 6.2% Guaranteed Growth Bond if you can tie up your money for one year. 

But inflation is still higher than the interest you’ll get. For example, the official Consumer Prices Index (CPI) increased 6.8% in the year to July – the most recent figure from the Office for National Statistics (ONS). If inflation remained at that level, the real value of money would be halved in just over ten years as Cowie’s article reports.

Should you put your money into high-yielding FTSE-100 big oil and mining companies instead? Some are yielding more than 4% with potential growth on top of that which you can simply add to get the likely long-term yield. In addition, company profits are effectively inflation proofed. If inflation is rampant their sales and profits rise in unison.

Historically, shares have beaten bonds and cash as investments in the long-term. But you can see in the short-term that there are now good places to keep your spare cash until the stock market picks up.

Roger Lawson (Twitter https://twitter.com/RogerWLawson  )

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VolitionRX and Sepsis

Edison have published a report on the merits of a company named VolitionRX (NYSE:VNRX). This company is developing blood test diagnostics for diseases such as Sepsis.

Sepsis is an exceedingly dangerous infectious disease that causes multiple organ failure as I know from personal experience. A few years ago I almost died from it in Kings College Hospital. The Edison report states there are 42 million cases of Sepsis worldwide every year with 11 million deaths.

Diagnosing the disease is not easy as symptoms can be mixed and treatment with antibiotics can be delayed until it’s too late. A recently publicised case in the national media was of a teenager who died from it after a minor cycling accident. Her mother has campaigned for a right to a second medical opinion in the NHS but the key is to get the diagnosis right first time and without delay. VolitionRX may provide a solution.

Sepsis is a clinical condition that occurs when the body’s immune system overreacts to a bacterial infection and begins to damage its own tissues and organs. If not diagnosed and treated quickly, it can lead to severe, often life-threatening health complications.

I personally spent three weeks in hospital after some time in the intensive care unit and suffered from intensive care neurothapy as a result which meant I had to learn to walk again. Not an experience I would like to repeat. I hope this company is successful in validating a new diagnostic for sepsis where there is clearly a large unsatisfied need.

Whether such a business is a good stock market investment is not easy to judge. They have some competitors targeting the same sector. But anyone with an interest in sepsis will find the report of interest – see https://www.edisongroup.com/research/unravelling-the-web-of-nets-in-sepsis/31224/ 

Roger Lawson (Twitter https://twitter.com/RogerWLawson  )

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Wars in Europe – Lessons from History

One of my summer reading books was “How far from Austerlitz” by Alistair Horne. With the war in Ukraine apparently bogged down in trench warfare with both sides claiming minor victories but in summary a quite static frontline for months it is worth considering how Napoleon managed to win his battles in central Europe.

The book covers the period 1805-1815 when Napoleon and his French led armies defeated several coalitions of Polish, Prussian, Austrian and Russian armies with England financing them but otherwise taking a back seat in the land battles until Waterloo.

How did Napoleon manage to defeat his opposition when he was often outnumbered? In summary by manoeuvre rather than fighting battles of attrition. A unified and single-minded command structure helped the French but ultimately the weight of overall numbers and economic realities defeated Napoleon.

There are a number of lessons to be learned from this book which I would recommend as an easy read even at 430 pages long.

As I said back in March: “The longer the war goes on, the more difficult it will be to reach an amicable solution as attitudes harden on both sides……” (see https://roliscon.blog/2022/03/08/ukraine-a-more-balanced-view/ ). The war in Ukraine is financially very damaging and has resulted in very high energy and food prices. It needs to be settled in some way and getting stuck in trench warfare which is what is happening is certainly not the solution.

Roger Lawson (Twitter https://twitter.com/RogerWLawson  )

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Sondrel – Another Disappointing IPO, and Grant Shapps Appointment

This morning saw the share price of Sondrel (SND) collapse by over 60%. It only listed in October 2022. Revenue forecasts are shot and losses will no doubt be substantial. This is what Camtab had to say on it on Stockopedia: “I am just amazed that people wonder why the City of London is losing credibility in the world. Sondrel are a fantastic example of the duplicity, stupidity and greed inherent. Float October 22 mentioning semi conductor (oh must be good then!) lots of prospects (brilliant) loads of opportunity (great!!). Less than a year later a profits warning on this scale. I gave up investing in IPOs years ago recognising that you only list on UK markets now if its a sh&tshow. Sorry to be so down about but it is so depressing and I don’t think people do hit brokers or markets enough for devaluing one of our main income providers in this country. Still keep devaluing it on this scale and we can always fall back on our resources (oh!) well we have some fantastic multi-national businesses (didn’t we sell those to someone)…………oh, well perhaps we could bottle fresh air then”.

There are several key messages here: 1) never trust a company with a volatile financial history; 2) recurring revenue is very important; 3) the semiconductor market is particularly tricky due to rapid obsolescence; all IPOs are risky as it’s easy to spin a good story about future prospects.

This was a company lined up to fail in my view and could well now be taken private again. Why do people invest in such dogs? Because there are lots of people who are suckers for a good tale is the reason.

The other surprising news today was the promotion of Grant Shapps to Defence Secretary. Someone who had made a hash of his previous job of Transport Secretary by promoting LTNs and then backtracking when they proved so unpopular (and impractical), a supporter of the impossible Net Zero policy and managed to change jobs so rapidly that his mistakes never caught up with him. His profile on Wikipedia also makes for interesting reading.

UK politics is beyond salvation if Rishi Sunak could not find someone better to take on the job.

Roger Lawson (Twitter https://twitter.com/RogerWLawson  )

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AI Tipped for Rapid Adoption by PCT, and Understanding Business Models

It’s summertime and the stock market continues to drift downwards with little share trading. It’s certainly not the time to be trading small cap stocks.  So I decided to catch up on some reading. I always like to read the Annual Report of Polar Capital Technology Trust (PCT) and that’s not just because I hold the shares but because the commentary on the technology market by Ben Rogoff is usually well-informed. This year is no exception but he is betting on AI to be a new growth phase stimulant.

He says: “After decades of unrealised hopes around artificial intelligence, we believe that generative AI is likely to prove the technology’s so-called ‘iphone moment’”, with mass adoption to follow. I am not so sure. There is no doubt that software such as ChatGPT might enhance search engines such as Google and Bing but will they enable lower cost or faster production of products? It might be just another over-hyped technology that will find a place in the market but not cause a revolution.

The latest book I have read is entitled “The Business Model Navigator” by three business school academics Gassman, Frankenberger and Choudury”.

Understanding a company’s business model is very important. I said this in my own book entitled “Business Perspective Investing”: “A company’s business model describes how the organization creates, delivers, and captures value via its adopted business processes. The accounts are only a good pointer to the future if the world, and the markets in which the company operates, are in stasis, i.e. nothing about the market and the company is going to change”.

The Business Model Navigator covers how companies can and have transformed their operations and profitability by adopting new models and includes many examples. It’s full of useful ideas that can be applied to any business.

The book is not light reading so might best be studied by those with an academic bent or business management background but there is certainly good content to fill up your summer holidays.

Roger Lawson (Twitter https://twitter.com/RogerWLawson  )

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Flint Report – A Betrayal?

Sharesoc has published a strongly worded criticism of the Flint Report on Digitisation. Written by Cliff Wright it calls the recommendations a “betrayal” and quite rightly.

It removes very important rights from private shareholders and perpetuates many of the wrongs present in the existing nominee system. To remind you, you need to be recorded as a “Member” on the share register of a company to preserve important legal rights!

Sharesoc’s comments are here: https://www.sharesoc.org/sharesoc-news/flint-interim-report-a-betrayal/

My submission to Sir Douglas Flint containing my mainly negative comments: https://www.roliscon.com/_files/ugd/8ec181_18053a9b5cfa4eb788731a82aafb3a57.pdf

Make sure you support the ShareSoc campaign on this subject.

Roger Lawson (Twitter: https://twitter.com/RogerWLawson  )

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A Political Manifesto

A few years ago I penned some policy suggestions for a new political party. I just had a clear out of some of my old files and thought it was worth publishing as it’s still very topical.

Reference Policy Suggestions My suggestions for policies in those areas and others are below:

Finance

1.       The personal taxation system is way too complicated and needs drastically simplifying. At the lower end the tax credit system is wide open to fraud while those on low incomes are taxed when they should not be. The personal tax allowance, both the basic rates, and higher rates, need to be raised to take more people out of tax altogether.

2.       The taxation of capital gains is also now too complicated, while tax is paid on capital gains that simply arise from inflation, which are not real gains at all. They should revert to being indexed as they were some years ago. For almost anyone, calculating your own tax that is payable is now way too difficult and hence requiring the paid services of accountants using specialist software.

3.       Inheritance tax is another over-complex system that wealthy people avoid by taking expert advice while the middle class end up paying it. It certainly needs grossly simplifying, or scrapping altogether as a relatively small amount of tax is actually collected from it.

4.       The taxation of businesses is inequitable with the growth of the internet. Small businesses, particularly retailers, pay a disproportionate level of tax in business rates while their internet competitors often avoid VAT via imports. VAT is now wide open to fraud and other types of abuse such as under-declarations, partly because of the EU VAT arrangements. VAT is in principle a simple tax and the alternative of a sales tax would create anomalies but VAT does need to be reformed and simplified.

5.       All the above tax simplifications would enable HMRC to be reduced in size and wasted time in form filling by individuals and businesses reduced. Everyone would be a winner, and wasted resources and expenditure reduced.  

6.       The taxation of company dividends on shares is now an example of the same profits being taxed twice – once in Corporation Tax on the company, and then again when those profits are distributed to shareholders. This has been enormously damaging to those who receive dividends and the lack of tax credits has also undermined defined benefit pension funds. The taxation of dividends should revert to how it once was.

7.       The regulation of companies and financial institutions needs very substantial reform with much tougher laws against fraud on investors. Not only are the current laws weak but the enforcement of them by the FCA/FRC is too slow and ineffective. Although some reforms have recently been proposed, they do not go far enough. Individual directors and senior managers in companies are not held to account for gross errors or downright fraud, or when they are, they get off too lightly. We need a much more effective system like they have in the USA, and better laws.

8.       Shareholder rights as regards voting and the receipt of information have been undermined by the use of nominee accounts. This has made it difficult for individual shareholders to vote and that is one reason why investors have not been able to control the excesses in director pay recently. The system of shareholding and voting needs reform, with changes to the Companies Act to bring it into the modern electronic world.

9.       The pay of directors and senior managers in companies and other organisations has got wildly out of hand in recent years, thus generating a lot of criticism by the lower paid. This has created social divisions and led partly to the rise of extreme left socialist tendencies. This problem needs tackling.

10.     Governance of companies needs to be reformed to ensure that directors do not set their own pay, as happens at present, but that shareholders and other stakeholders do so. Likewise shareholders and other stakeholders should appoint the directors.

11.     Insolvency law needs reform to outlaw “pre-pack” administrations which have been very damaging to many small businesses. They are an abuse of insolvency law.

Transport

1.       Way too much money is spent on rail transport and trams which cannot be justified on any cost/benefit analysis. HS2 is just one extreme example of this. Meanwhile the road system does not receive enough investment – this has resulted in traffic congestion, wasted time which is damaging to the economy and lots of poorly maintained roads (e.g. potholes). Only 25% of direct tax on vehicles is spent on the roads.

2.       Public transport should generally pay for itself. In London alone there is a subsidy of £1 billion per year on buses which is totally unjustified. Many of these subsidies are given to people who could afford to pay for their travel, even when they are receiving social security benefits.

3.       Road safety has flat-lined due to an excessive focus on speed reduction and the perversion of the law by the use of police waivers to force people to take useless “education” courses. Policies have been distorted to enable the police to make money from drivers, while improving the roads, better education and other policies to reduce road casualties have been ignored.

4.       Charging of drivers via road pricing to reduce congestion should be opposed (as it does not work and is just a money-making taxation scheme). Likewise Clean Air Zones where drivers are taxed for driving some vehicles, all of which were legal when purchased, should be stopped and the whole focus of environmental legislation should be reviewed. EU regulations in this area have made illegal air pollution levels when there is no real evidence of danger from them. ULEZ and CAZ schemes are just a way to raise taxes with little real benefit on health grounds and no cost/benefit justification.

5.       Likewise the EU has mandated speed limiters (ISA – Intelligent Speed Adaptation) for all vehicles in future which will delay vehicles and not contribute to road safety, while generating millions of speeding fines on innocent drivers. There should be a commitment not to follow the EUs lead on such legislation.

Education

1.       Education should be free for all those who can justify they will benefit from it. At present too many people go to university who will be unlikely to benefit from it and they should be redirected to lower cost vocational courses.

2.       Loans to support students taking courses should be interest free.

3.       There needs to be a much stronger focus on technology education in the UK as only people with such education will contribute positively to the economy.

4.       There needs to be more emphasis on the use of technology in teaching to improve the productivity of that profession which has basically not changed in hundreds of years. The use of on-line resources can assist and would enable teachers to be more productive and hence be paid more.

Environmental, Climate Change, Population and Housing

1.       There should be more attention paid to the real science of environmental impact rather than the hysteria of left-wing campaign groups.

2.       Mrs May’s commitment to a zero-carbon economy, which is financially unaffordable, should be scrapped because there is no practical way to achieve it and it is based on very dubious scientific analyses.

3.       The population of the UK needs to be controlled, if not reduced, to improve living conditions and ensure a healthy economy. This can be achieved by tougher limits on immigration (along with better enforcement of existing rules), and encouraging the population to procreate less.

4.       Housing costs, and the inability to find suitable accommodation, are major problems for the young. Controlling/reducing population would help but other measures need also be considered including the financing of more social/rented housing.

Local Councils and London

1.       The funding of local authorities, and some of their important functions such as providing social care, needs to be reformed. At present they are too dependent on central Government funding which means obligations are often put on them without the funds to cover the cost.

2.       There are wide variations between the efficiencies of different local councils with many being wasteful. They should have guidelines and limits on how they spend their money, laid down by central Government, to avoid waste.

3.       London is a particular problem where it has become dominated by populist Mayors (both Labour and Conservative) and where elections are driven by national politics rather than local issues. The most recent Mayor, Sadiq Khan, has been pursuing a “gerrymandering” policy of increasing immigration to gain more people that are likely to vote for him, thus making London even less acceptable as a place to live than it has been for years. Crime, transport and housing are all in a major crisis. I suggest the position of the Mayor, and the Greater London Authority be scrapped as Mrs Thatcher did with the GLC when Ken Livingstone became so damaging. In other words it should revert to central Government control, with the local boroughs having more control over their own affairs. That would no doubt be popular with London borough councillors.

4.       Transport for London should be taken out of the control of the Mayor be made an independent body with an objective of making it a profit centre rather than a consumer of enormous subsidies. They should also lose control of the road network (the TLRN) where they currently have a perverse incentive to make the road network unfit for purpose so that more people use public transport from which they gain income.

I hope you find the above useful.

Yours Roger W. Lawson, M.B.A., M.B.C.S. ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Roger Lawson (Twitter: https://twitter.com/RogerWLawson  )

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Dividend Exasperation

Since share registrars have been discouraging dividend payments via cheques, and some companies have insisted on bank transfer payments, it has become increasing difficult to keep track of dividends.

In the good old days you knew the dividend had been paid and who it was from when a cheque in the company’s name was received. Now some payments arrive into our joint bank account and some arrive via cheque still. Some also go into our accounts with ISA and SIPP providers where the shares are held in nominee accounts.

The direct bank payments do not indicate whether they are for me or my wife so I have to figure it out from my Sharescope system and the worst culprit is City Partnership who send dividend payments for some VCT holdings without referencing the company name in the bank transfer.

Other companies send dividend cheques where the company issuing the cheque is not clear.

These changes mean I have significant extra work to figure out the dividends received and to check none have gone missing. It’s becoming quite exasperating having to waste time on this. Basically the system is a mess and not fit for purpose.

Paying in cheques has also got more difficult as so many bank branches have closed. And paying in a cheque via scanning it with a mobile phone app only works for smaller amounts.  In addition, one recent such transaction for one our trust accounts was rejected for no good reason.

The assumption seems to be that recipients don’t bother to check dividend payments received (which I certainly do) and that they are always paid correctly (which is not the case).

Roger Lawson (Twitter: https://twitter.com/RogerWLawson  )

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