Euphoria All Around, But Platforms Not Keeping Up

The Conservative General Election Victory has generated large movements in stock prices with utility companies and banks some of the major beneficiaries. National Grid (NG.) rose 4% on Friday as the threat of nationalisation disappeared and Telecom Plus (TEP), which I hold, rose 11%. I sold the former some time ago as the business seemed challenged on a number of fronts and regulation of utilities in general in the UK and hence their likely return on capital seemed to becoming tougher. My view has not changed so although foreign investors might be mightily relieved, I am not rushing into buying utility companies today.

The euphoria seems to have spread to a very broad range of stocks. Even those you would think would be negatively affected by the rise in the pound, which will depress the value of dollar earnings, have risen. This may be because US markets have risen on the prospect of a US/China trade deal which was announced on December 13th.  This might roll back some of the imposed and proposed tariffs on Chinese products to the USA, and cause cancellation of retaliatory Chinese tariffs, but the details are yet to be settled. This may not be a long-term solution though as it will likely still leave the USA with a very large trade deficit with China.

One noticeable aspect of the euphoria infecting markets on Friday morning was the inability of some investment platforms to keep up. According to a report on Citywire, two of the largest operators were affected with AJ Bell suffering intermittent problems due to a four-fold rise in volumes and Hargreaves Lansdown also experiencing problems. Some of the issues apparently related to electronic prices not being quoted by market makers which was reported as a problem by Interactive Investor. This meant that trades had to be put through manually via dealers who became overloaded.

It is very disappointing to see that yet again a moderate rise in volumes caused an effective market meltdown. The Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) should surely be looking into this as it is their responsibility to ensure the markets and operators therein have robust systems in place. If there is a real market crash, as has happened in the past, retail investors could be severely prejudiced if platforms fail or market makers fail to quote prices.

Eurphoria also seems to have become prevalent in the market for VCT shares in the last couple of years with figures from HMRC showing that the number of new VCT investors claiming income tax relief reached a ten-year high in 2017-18, up 24% over the previous year. The amount invested increased by 33% and in 2018-19 the amount invested increased again by 1.6% to £716 million. The pension changes such as the reduction in the lifetime allowance and new pension freedoms are attributed as the causes. High earners have been flocking to VCTs to mitigate their tax bills it appears.

But the investment rules for VCTs have got a lot tougher so whether they will continue to achieve the high returns seen in the past remains to be seen.

The recently published HMRC report on VCT activity is present here: https://tinyurl.com/vuro5p8

Roger Lawson (Twitter: https://twitter.com/RogerWLawson )

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Dunelm Trading, Abrupt Share Price Moves and Volatility

It’s a good job I am not an emotional person. This morning Dunelm (DNLM) issued what I considered a very positive trading statement for the last quarter. The share price promptly dropped 6% after the market opened.

Total group sales were up 5.8%, with like-for-like sales up 6.4%. In addition this is a company that is clearly making a successful transition from being a retail store business to a hybrid on-line/store model. On-line business was up 34.7% while store business was still up 2.9%. On a prospective p/e of less than 15 and a yield of over 4% this is starting to look attractive. The company says year-end expectations remain unchanged as it continues to win market share. The only slight negative was that “September trading was mixed in part reflecting a softer homewares market”. But should a retailer be judged on one month’s trading alone?

This is the third of my holdings to suffer abrupt falls in the last couple of days. The others were 4Imprint (FOUR) and Telecom Plus (TEP), neither for any very obvious reason although there were some large trades put through on the former. But the UK market has been falling driven by the nervousness over resolution of the Brexit situation no doubt. That looks even more problematic at present with it being clear that the EU thinks they can force Brexit to be cancelled by sitting on their hands and dictating another referendum or general election before they will negotiate a withdrawal agreement. Conspiring with Speaker John Bercow is the latest attack on the democratic constitution of the UK by the EU in furtherance of this objective. What’s the motivation for the position of the EU Commission on all of this? I would suggest as usual it’s about money which always drives politics and the actions of individuals. The departure of the UK from the EU will leave a massive hole in the EU budget which they have not even attempted to solve as yet.

These events mean of course that foreign investors, who hold the majority of UK listed companies, are spooked and the risk of a future Labour Government rises as the leavers vote is split between Conservatives and Brexit party supporters. The only positive aspect is that the falling pound, driven by the same emotions, is improving the potential profits of many of my holdings which have large overseas revenues. 4Imprint comes into that category of course so the recent falls are difficult to explain except on the basis of recent past irrational exuberance. Smaller cap stocks are particularly vulnerable because just a few trades can move the share price substantially.

When markets and investors get nervous, volatility does increase and sharp share price falls can happen for no great reason. This is the time to pick up some bargains perhaps?

Postscript: Commentators on the Dunelm results after the share price fell further focused on the threat to margins from a falling pound, but the company announcement indicated that they expect gross margin for the full year to be consistent with last year despite currency headwinds towards the end of the year.

Roger Lawson (Twitter: https://twitter.com/RogerWLawson )

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